On The Horizon

Jim Squire

Stardate 85-20110131: Geeks vs. Madness, Poets vs. Sanity--The Mid-Majority

Horizon League: Cleveland State had a bad weekend earlier in the month. A really bad one. Lost at Butler and Valpo, and then fell off the face of the earth. It's okay, sports fans, you can come back now. They're not that bad. Of the nine teams with 20 or more wins before Groundhog Day, the Vikings are one. They haven't lost since that weekend -- five straight, three on the road -- and at No. 30 are the second-highest ranked RPI team in the BracketBusters away pool (Utah State: 29), which is the blunt instrument ESPN usually uses to match teams. (Oh yeah, the selections are today.) And there's Butler in fourth place after losing at Valpo in overtime on Saturday, 85-79. The rest of the nation has stuffed the Bulldogs into a "No Gordon Hayward, no good" narrative, but if you're watching, you can see how much they're relying on Matt Howard, how poorly Shelvin Mack is shooting, and how many 2010 role players have been rushed into 2011 key roles. It's sad and romantic, but it's not working very well.

BracketBusters Matchups 2011--The Mid-Majority
The Week That Was: Jan. 25-Jan. 31--Rush The Court

Could America’s favorite mid-major really be on the outside looking in come Selection Sunday? That fate might await Butler now that the Bulldogs have lost three of four games to the likes of Wright State, Milwaukee and Valparasio. Butler now sits in fourth place in the Horizon League (a half game behind Wright State and two and a half behind first-place Cleveland State). ESPN.com had the Bulldogs as its third-to-last team in the tourney in its latest projection (RTC had them in its last four out), and their bracket put the Bulldogs in a First Four game for the West’s 12 seed. There’s no doubt that Butler is on the bubble, and that its status is getting more and more precarious. The problem for the Bulldogs is that they are not nearly the same defensive team they were a year ago when they were the national runner-up. Last season, Butler was the #5 team in the nation in defensive efficiency according to KenPom.com; this year, the Bulldogs check in at #137. They’re only forcing turnovers on 18.8% of their opponents’ possessions (264th in the nation) and they’re giving up an effective field goal percentage of 49.3% (172nd nationally). Butler’s M.O. is supposed to be defense, but they’re a mediocre team on that side of the ball this year. The lone bright spot for the Bulldogs is they have a decent RPI (#42 thanks to the 27th ranked strength of schedule, according to CollegeRPI.com), but that number will continue to slip if they suffer anymore setbacks. It’s time for Shelvin Mack, Matt Howard and company to man up and put a run together. Butler housed Cleveland State at home earlier this year — it’s not out of the question to expect them to win the Horizon League’s automatic bid.

The 10 BracketBuster Games You Don’t Want to Miss--Rush The Court
Groundhog Day: Can It Predict March Success?--Rush The Court

The three-year totals show that in an average year we should expect roughly two-thirds of the top sixteen on Groundhog Day to remain in the upper echelon by Selection Sunday, and a very high number of those to also advance to the Sweet Sixteen. Additionally, if you’re looking for a Cinderella to reach the Final Four, you may not want to go too far down the rankings at this point. The only team outside the top sixteen to make it was Butler last season, and the Bulldogs were a near-miss, sitting at #23 (AP), #15 (ESPN/USA) and #18 (RPI) for an average ranking of 18.67.

A weekly look at the mid-major scene--ESPN

What you shouldn't miss
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Thursday: Valpo at Cleveland State -- Vikings leading scorer Norris Cole just keeps on grinding out wins. If it beats Valpo and Butler in the next two games, Cleveland State can put itself in a championship position.
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Who's hot
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Valpo and Wright State: Valpo defeated Butler 85-79 in OT on Saturday, as Matt Kenney, Ryan Broekhoff and Cory Johnson each scored 16 points and Brandon Wood added 15 points. The Crusaders are now tied in the loss column with Cleveland State for the top spot in the Horizon League. Meanwhile, Wright State has emerged as a dark horse. It is 7-4 in the league and a half-game ahead of Butler, and is led by Vaughn Duggins and N'Gai Evans.

Bracket Busters schedule released--Ballin' is a Habit
Tempo-free conference aerials--ChicagoNow.com
Games on Thursday even after the snow--ChicagoNow.com

Utah Jazz: Deron Williams a no-go tonight, will see specialist for injured wrist--Deseret News

Rookie Gordon Hayward will also be in the starting lineup for Kirilenko at small forward, while veteran Earl Watson will get his fourth straight start at point guard.

Hinkle to get preservation funds--The Indy Star
Ex-Butler coach George Theofanis dies--The Indy Star
Butler and a muddled bubble--Indy Star Butler Insider
Cutting down the ‘Net: Average at best--Victory Firelight
Howard finalist for Lowe’s Senior CLASS Award--Butler Collegian
Valpo outlasts Butler in OT--Butler Collegian
Stevens selected as USA assistant--Butler Collegian
Bulldogs Begin Ohio Swing At Youngstown State--ButlerSports.com

Women’s basketball splits HL weekend--Butler Collegian
Bulldogs Continue League Play With Detroit--ButlerSports.com

David S. Glasier: Will this week be a high-water mark for Cleveland State? (with video)--The News-Herald
Morning Five: Groundhog Day Edition--Rush The Court

We thought this was an interesting article from the Cleveland State Cauldron lamenting that CSU basketball is a consistent winner in a town that traditionally has not had many of those, yet it still has significant trouble getting any kind of attention from anyone in the community at-large. The Vikings are currently 20-3 overall and 9-2 in the Horizon League with second-place Valpo and traditional power Butler coming to town this weekend. We agree, Cleveland… get out there and support this team. They just might end up being one of the best mid-major stories of the year in all of college basketball again.