Saturday, February 19, 2011

Men's Seed Race 2/19/2011

Scores from 2/16/2011:

Detroit 91 Youngstown State 79
Cleveland State 74 Wright State 72
Loyola 67 UIC 66 OT
Milwaukee 79 Valparaiso 76

Seed Team Conf 1st round matchup
---- ---------- ---- -----------------
#1 Cleveland State 12-4 Would receive double-bye
#2 Valparaiso 11-4 Would receive double-bye
#3 Milwaukee 11-5 Would host #10 YSU
#4 Butler 11-5 Would host #9 UIC
#5 Wright State 10-7 Would host #8 Loyola
#6 Detroit 9-8 Would host #7 Green Bay
#7 Green Bay 6-9
#8 Loyola 6-10
#9 UIC 2-14
#10 Youngstown State 2-14

CSU and Valpo have clinched a top 4 finish.

WSU and Detroit will finish relative to each other according to who wins their game next Saturday.

Valpo and CSU can both clinch the double-bye simply by taking care of their own business. If they both do, the only remaining question will be which one gets the 1 seed:

Given both CSU and Valpo finishing 14-4, here's what has to happen for CSU to get the 1 seed: Milwaukee must finish ahead of Butler. In other words:

1. Milwaukee must beat YSU AND
2. Loyola must beat Butler AND
3. UIC must beat Butler

If any of these 3 things fails to happen, Valpo gets the 1 seed. Here's the rationale:

1. CSU and Valpo split with each other.
2. If Milwaukee finishes 3rd by themselves,
CSU sweeps Milwaukee while Valpo only splits
with them, therefore CSU gets the 1 seed.
3. If Butler finishes 3rd by themselves, Valpo
gets the 1 seed because they split with Butler
while CSU was swept by them.
4. If Butler finishes tied with Milwaukee for 3rd,
the tie remains unbroken because CSU and Valpo
are both 2-2 against Butler/Milwaukee.
5. WSU is neutral, having been swept by both
teams (they can even join in the Butler/Milwaukee
tie, but it doesn't change anything in #4.
6. Since Valpo and CSU win out, Green Bay does not
reach 9 wins, so the next team to look at is
Detroit, and Valpo swept Detroit while CSU only
split with them, so if Butler finishes tied for
3rd with Milwaukee (and perhaps even WSU), Valpo
gets the 1 seed.

So, Valpo gets the #1 seed if:

1. They beat Green Bay, Loyola, and UIC AND
2. CSU loses at least one game OR Butler
sweeps or splits their final games against
Loyola and UIC OR Milwaukee loses to YSU

They also get the #1 seed if:

1. They win 2 of their remaining 3 AND
2. Milwaukee loses to CSU and/or YSU
3. Either CSU or Butler fails to win 13 games

If they tie with CSU for 13 wins, then again as long as Butler finishes even with or ahead of Milwaukee, they either break the tie in favor of Valpo or they cancel out Milwaukee, leaving the tiebreaking duties to Detroit who also favors Valpo.

CSU wins the #1 seed if:

1. They beat Green Bay and Milwaukee AND
2. Valpo loses at least one of their 3
remaining games OR Milwaukee beats YSU
AND Butler loses to UIC and Loyola.

They also win the #1 seed if:

1. They beat either Green Bay or Milwaukee
(but not both) AND
2. Milwaukee loses at least one of their 2
remaining games AND
3. Butler loses at least one or their 2
remaining games AND Valpo loses at least
2 of their remaining 3 games OR Butler
loses both their remaining games AND Valpo
loses only 1 of their remaining 3 games.

Rationale: CSU can't afford to be in a tie with Butler, and if they tie Milwaukee at 13-5 it will fall to a common opponent. Valpo and Wright State are neutral so Butler would still be the tiebreaker. However, if CSU ties at 13-5 with only Valpo, they beat Milwaukee, Milwaukee beats YSU, and Butler finishes 11-7, then Milwaukee breaks the tie for CSU.

Milwaukee wins the #1 seed if:

1. They beat CSU and YSU AND
2. Valpo loses to Loyola

If first place is 13-5 and Milwaukee is one of the teams with that record, they own all the tiebreakers except for one: Loyola. They are the only team that swept Butler, so if Butler is 13-5, Milwaukee wins the tiebreaker no matter who else is 13-5 (they split with Valpo and CSU, Valpo split with all 3, and CSU was swept by Butler while splitting with Valpo). The only way to keep Butler from breaking the tie for Milwaukee is if Butler and Wright State are tied, because both Valpo and CSU swept Wright State while Milwaukee only split with them. Detroit eliminates CSU because the Vikings are the only one that didn't sweep the Titans. Green Bay eliminates Valpo by beating them on Monday. On the other hand if Valpo beats Green Bay and Loyola, they finish 13-5 by losing to UIC. Green Bay is neutral with respect to Valpo and Milwaukee at that point, but by sweeping Loyola, the Crusaders would take the 1 seed (Milwaukee only split with them). If, on the other hand, Valpo beats Green Bay but loses to Loyola, then their loss to UIC hands the 1 seed to Milwaukee, who swept the Flames.

The analysis is complicated, but Milwaukee owns all but one of the tiebreakers if first place is 13-5. The only help they need is from the Ramblers.

That's IF they "take care of business".

Likewise if they split their 2 remaining games, they still own all the tiebreakers, as long as 12-6 is first place. So they win the #1 seed if:

1. They beat either CSU or YSU
(but not both) AND
2. Valpo loses to Loyola and either
UIC or Green Bay AND
3. CSU loses to Green Bay AND
4. Butler loses to Loyola and/or UIC

The above analysis pretty much follows here as well. If Butler finishes 11-7, they still loom as the Panthers' winning tiebreaker, unless WSU cancels them out, but that only works for Valpo (CSU is 2-2 against WSU/Butler, Milwaukee is 3-1). If Valpo loses to Loyola and Green Bay, Green Bay gives the tiebreaker to Milwaukee because they swept Valpo. If Valpo loses to Loyola and UIC, UIC gives the tiebreaker to Milwaukee because they split with Valpo.

There are actually 5 scenarios out of the 1024 that remain where the #1 seed currently belongs to a team called "RPI". This comes into play if:

1. UIC beats Butler AND
2. Valpo beats Green Bay AND
3. Loyola beats Valpo AND
4. Milwaukee beats CSU AND
5. WSU beats Detroit AND
6. Loyola beats Butler

You then have:

Milwaukee either 13-5 or 12-6
(depending on the YSU game)
Valpo either 13-5 or 12-6
(depending on the UIC game)
CSU either 13-5 or 12-6
(depending on the Green Bay game)
WSU 11-7
Detroit 9-9
Loyola 8-10
Green Bay 8-10 or 7-11 or 6-12
UIC 3-15 or 4-14
YSU 2-14 or 3-15 or 4-14

If all 3 top teams finish 12-6, the tiebreaker falls to common opponents. Butler/WSU puts CSU in 3rd place, but doesn't break the tie between Milwaukee and Valpo. Detroit is likewise neutral. By beating Valpo, Loyola becomes neutral. By losing to Valpo, Green Bay becomes neutral. That only leaves UIC and YSU tied at 4-14. Milwaukee splits with YSU but sweeps UIC, while Valpo splits with UIC but sweeps YSU. So the tie remains unbroken until the final RPI rankings are set. At this point, Valpo's in a good position with respect to Milwaukee, RPI-wise, but we can't clinch it for them yet.

If Valpo and Milwaukee end up 13-5 but CSU ends up 12-6, the tie breaker falls to common opponents. CSU is neutral. Butler/WSU is neutral. Detroit is neutral. Loyola and Green Bay are both neutral for the same reasons as above. If YSU beats Green Bay, they tie UIC, but both they and UIC are neutral anyway since both will have been swept by Valpo and Milwaukee.

Finally, if CSU also finishes 13-5, once again the tiebreaker falls to common opponents. Butler/WSU loses the tiebreaker for CSU, but is neutral with respect to Valpo and Milwaukee. Detroit, Loyola, and Green Bay are again neutral. UIC and YSU are also neutral for the reasons given above.

So in all these situations, RPI will have to break the tie.

If that seems like a lot of ground covered more efficiently than in past years, bear in mind: we've only scoped out the top seed. We still have 2-10 to go, but I'm going to leave that for the next posting under this title.

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