Men's seed race 2/14/2010

Scores from 2/13/2009:

Wright State    67 Green Bay        54
Valparaiso      77 Youngstown State 75
Milwaukee       71 Detroit          60
Loyola          80 UIC              63
Butler          70 Cleveland State  59

Seed Team             Conf 1st round matchup
---- ----------       ---- -----------------
#1   Butler           16-0 Has clinched #1 seed and double-bye
#2   Wright State     10-5 Would receive double-bye
#3   Cleveland State   9-5 Would host #10 Youngstown State
#4   Green Bay         9-6 Would host #9 UIC
#5   Valparaiso        9-7 Would host #8 Loyola
#6   Detroit           7-8 Would host #7 Milwaukee
#7   Milwaukee         6-8
#8   Loyola            5-10
#9   UIC               2-13
#10  Youngstown State  2-13

As stated previously, technically UIC is "winning" the tiebreaker with YSU because they are 0-1 against Butler while YSU is 0-2 against Butler. That's likely to wash out next Wednesday, but for now...

The more interesting situation is the logjam in the upper half. Wright State currently leads in Mark Lazerus' "Race For The Second Seed (TM)." Of those 4 teams, CSU plays both WSU and UWGB in the remaining schedule, so they have the most control over the situation.

It has been a forgone conclusion in Valparaiso that the Crusaders lost their chance for the 2nd seed when they lost to CSU Thursday night. Nobody's been saying they are mathematically eliminated from the 2 seed, but I've been curious to see what would have to happen for Valpo to snag the double-bye.

1.  They can't afford to finish tied (much less behind)
    Wright State, because WSU owns the tiebreaker, having
    swept VU.
2.  If 10-8 is 2nd place, it has to be a 4-way tie because
    WSU would have to lose to CSU, giving the Vikings 10
    wins.  CSU in turn would have to lose to Green Bay,
    giving the Phoenix 10 wins.  In such a situation, the
    head-to-head competition shakes out like this: WSU 4-2,
    CSU 3-3, Green Bay 3-3, Valpo 2-4.  So, that wouldn't
    do it.
3.  If 11-7 is 2nd place, it is possible for CSU, WSU, and
    Green Bay to all finish 10-8 (WSU loses to CSU, Detroit,
    and YSU; CSU loses to Green Bay, Milwaukee, and Detroit;
    Green Bay loses to Loyola and UIC).  That would leave
    VU alone in 2nd place.  It's not a likely outcome, but
    it is possible.  Obviously it means VU beats Loyola and
    then nationally ranked Butler to close out its season,
    and that alone is very unlikely.
4.  Slightly more likely within the 11-7 scenario is one or
    more teams tied with VU at 11-7.  In order for VU to
    survive the head-to-head competition tiebreaker, WSU
    must finish 10-8 (meaning they lose to CSU).  Any head-
    to-head competition including WSU eliminates VU.
    a.  GB and CSU also 11-7: GB will be 3-1 or 2-2, CSU
        will be 2-2 or 1-3, VU is 2-2.  The only way VU
        survives this tiebreaker is if CSU beats GB.  All 3
        teams would be 2-2, and VU would win the tiebreaker
        with a win over Butler.
    b.  A tie with either GB or CSU would always favor VU
        because the Crusaders split with both teams, and
        VU's win over Butler would award VU the 2 seed.

So, VU has to win out, finishing 11-7, Wright State must
lose out to finish 10-8, and Cleveland State must beat Green
Bay.  If all these things happen, Valpo has the 2 seed.

A tall order, to be sure.