Milwaukee 64 Youngstown State 62
Seed Team Conf 1st round matchup
---- ---------- ---- -----------------
#1 Butler 16-0 Has clinched #1 seed and double-bye
#2 Wright State 10-5 Would receive double-bye
#3 Cleveland State 9-5 Would host #10 Youngstown State
#4 Green Bay 9-6 Would host #9 UIC
#5 Valparaiso 9-7 Would host #8 Loyola
#6 Milwaukee 7-8 Would host #7 Detroit
#7 Detroit 7-8
#8 Loyola 5-10
#9 UIC 2-13
#10 Youngstown State 2-14
Detroit and Milwaukee have split with each other. Both have been swept by Butler. Milwaukee is 1-1 against Wright State while Detroit is 0-1 against the Raiders (however, this could change on Wednesday).
A fellow Valpo fan appreciated my analysis on VU's slim chances for the #2 seed, "but frankly, my dear, could you spell out the chances for the slightly more realistic #3 seed?"
Since I've gone down that road, I guess I have to continue (I'll get more comprehensive and unbiased by the end of this week, I promise).
1. WSU finishes 13-5 (completing sweeps against CSU, YSU,
and Detroit)
If CSU or Green Bay finishes 12-6, there's no chance for
VU to get the 3 seed.
a. CSU finishes 11-7, Green Bay finishes 10-8 or Green
Bay finishes 11-7 and CSU finishes 10-8
VU obviously has to beat both Loyola and Butler to
finish 11-7, at which point, VU wins the tiebreaker:
they split with both CSU and Green Bay, and they
would be the only team to beat Butler.
b. Both CSU and Green Bay finish 11-7 (and VU finishes
11-7)
In this case, if CSU beats Green Bay Tuesday night
(tomorrow -- just barely as I write this), then CSU
would win the tiebreaker because they would be 3-1,
VU would be 2-2, and Green Bay would be 1-3 (CSU #3,
VU #4, GB #5).
On the other hand, if Green Bay splits with CSU,
head-to-head would be 2-2 for all 3 teams, and VU
would win the tiebreaker with their victory over
Butler.
c. Otherwise, VU can secure the 3 seed outright by
going 11-7
d. CSU, Green Bay, VU, and Milwaukee finish 10-8
(Detroit loses to WSU in this scenario and can at
most finish 9-9).
In this scenario, Milwaukee beats CSU, Loyola, and
UIC. Valpo splits their remaining two games against
Loyola and Butler. CSU loses to both WSU and
Milwaukee, and beats either Green Bay or Detroit.
Green Bay beats either CSU, UIC, or Loyola.
Head-to-Head: If Green Bay beats CSU, all 4 teams
would be 3-3. VU would have to beat Butler to win
the tiebreaker. Otherwise, the 3 seed would go to
Milwaukee or Green Bay as the only two teams to
beat WSU. If instead, CSU beats Green Bay, then
CSU would be 4-2 and Green Bay would be 2-4, so
CSU would get the 3 seed.
e. Green Bay, VU, and Milwaukee finish 10-8 while CSU
finishes 9-9.
In this scenario, all 3 teams are already 2-2 in
head-to-head, so if VU beats Butler, they win the
tiebreaker and the 3 seed. Otherwise, it falls to
either Green Bay or Milwaukee since VU was swept by
WSU.
f. In fact, the only one of these teams for which WSU
doesn't break the tie opposite of VU is CSU since
if WSU finishes 13-5, both teams will have been
swept by WSU. Assuming VU beats Loyola and loses
to Butler, the tiebreaker procedure moves to 5th
place.
In this case, Green Bay finishes 9-9 by losing to
CSU, UIC, and Loyola and CSU beats Green Bay and
loses to Milwaukee, Detroit, and WSU. If Milwaukee
beats both Loyola and UIC, they finish 9-9 in a tie
with Green Bay. Both teams would be 2-2 against
Green Bay and Milwaukee, so it would then fall to
7th place Detroit (who would be either 8-10 or 9-9
while Loyola can be at best 7-11). VU is 1-1
against Detroit while CSU would be 0-2, so VU would
get the 3 seed.
If instead, Milwaukee finishes 8-10 (beating CSU
and losing to Loyola and UIC), Detroit could tie
Green Bay at 9-9 by also beating YSU. VU is 2-2
against Green Bay and Detroit while CSU would be
1-3, so again VU would be the 3 seed. If instead
Detroit also finishes 8-10, then both VU and CSU
would be 1-1 against Green Bay, so Milwaukee and
Detroit would be the next step. Again, VU is 2-2
against them while CSU would be 1-3, so once more
VU gets the 3 seed.
So, to sum up: VU needs the following in order to get
the 3 seed:
a. 3rd place is either 11-7 or 10-8 (CSU, GB, and VU
are the only ones that can finish 11-7, while they
and Milwaukee can all finish 10-8).
b. If 3rd place is 11-7, either CSU or Green Bay or
both must finish 10-8 or else Green Bay must beat
CSU.
c. If 3rd place is 10-8, either VU must beat Butler
or else CSU is 10-8 while Green Bay is 9-9 and UWM
is 9-9 or 8-10.
2. CSU wins out, finishing 13-5
This one is relatively simple: WSU must finish 10-8 and
VU must finish 11-7. That means Detroit goes 8-10 or
9-9 (losing to CSU and beating WSU), Milwaukee goes
7-11, 8-10, or 9-9 (losing to CSU), Green Bay goes 11-7,
10-8, or 9-9 (losing to CSU). So, only Green Bay can
tie with VU, and since they split with each other, VU's
win over Butler would break the tie and give VU the 3
seed.
3. WSU alone finishes 12-6
3rd place would be 11-7 or 10-8. The analysis is
largely the same as in 1 except that here Detroit can
also finish 10-8 and CSU can beat WSU.
Note: It is impossible for both Green Bay and CSU to
finish 9-9 because they play each other. One of them
*has* to finish with at least 10 wins.
a. CSU finishes 11-7, Green Bay finishes 10-8 or Green
Bay finishes 11-7 and CSU finishes 10-8
VU obviously has to beat both Loyola and Butler to
finish 11-7, at which point, VU wins the tiebreaker:
they split with both CSU and Green Bay, and they
would be the only team to beat Butler.
b. Both CSU and Green Bay finish 11-7 (and VU finishes
11-7)
In this case, if CSU beats Green Bay Tuesday night
(tomorrow -- just barely as I write this), then CSU
would win the tiebreaker because they would be 3-1,
VU would be 2-2, and Green Bay would be 1-3 (CSU #3,
VU #4, GB #5).
On the other hand, if Green Bay splits with CSU,
head-to-head would be 2-2 for all 3 teams, and VU
would win the tiebreaker with their victory over
Butler.
c. Otherwise, VU can secure the 3 seed outright by
going 11-7
d. CSU, Green Bay, VU, Milwaukee, and Detroit finish
10-8.
In this scenario, Milwaukee beats CSU, Loyola, and
UIC. Valpo splits their remaining two games against
Loyola and Butler. CSU loses to WSU, Detroit, and
Milwaukee, and beats Green Bay. Green Bay beats
either UIC or Loyola.
Head-to-Head: If Green Bay beats CSU, CSU would be
3-5, Green Bay would be 5-3, VU would be 4-4,
Milwaukee would be 4-4, and Detroit would be 4-4.
In this case, Green Bay would get the 3 seed. If
instead, CSU beats Green Bay, then all 5 teams would
be 4-4. VU could win the tiebreaker by beating
Butler. Otherwise they would lose the tiebreaker
because they were swept by WSU while Milwaukee and
Green Bay split with them.
e. Green Bay, VU, Milwaukee, and Detroit finish 10-8
while CSU finishes 9-9.
In this scenario, Milwaukee beats CSU, Loyola, and
UIC. Valpo splits their remaining two games against
Loyola and Butler. Detroit beats WSU, CSU, and YSU.
Green Bay beats CSU, and loses to Loyola and UIC.
Head-to-Head: Green Bay is 4-2, VU is 3-3, Milwaukee
is 3-3, Detroit is 2-4. Therefore, Green Bay gets
the 3 seed, not VU.
f. CSU, VU, Milwaukee, and Detroit finish 10-8 while
Green Bay finishes 9-9.
In this scenario, Milwaukee beats CSU, Loyola, and
UIC. Valpo splits their two remaining games against
Loyola and Butler. Detroit beats WSU, CSU, and YSU.
CSU beats Green Bay, and loses to WSU, Detroit, and
Milwaukee.
Head-to-Head: CSU would be 2-4, VU is 3-3, Milwaukee
would be 3-3, Detroit would be 4-2. Detroit would
get the 3 seed.
g. CSU, Green Bay, VU, and Detroit finish 10-8, while
Milwaukee finishes 9-9 or worse.
In this scenario, Detroit beats WSU, CSU, and YSU.
CSU loses to WSU and Detroit and splits with Green
Bay and Milwaukee. Valpo splits their two remaining
games against Loyola and Butler. Green Bay beats
CSU, Loyola, or UIC and loses to the other two.
Head-to-Head if Green Bay beats CSU: CSU would be
2-4, Green Bay would be 4-2, VU is 3-3, and Detroit
is 3-3. Green Bay would get the 3 seed.
Head-to-Head if CSU beats Green Bay: All 4 teams
would be 3-3, so if VU beats Butler they win the 3
seed. Otherwise, they lose it because they were
swept by #2 WSU while Green Bay and Detroit both
split with WSU.
h. CSU, Green Bay, VU, and Milwaukee finish 10-8 while
Detroit finishes 9-9 or worse.
In this scenario, Milwaukee beats CSU, Loyola, and
UIC. Valpo splits their remaining two games against
Loyola and Butler. CSU loses to Milwaukee and two
of WSU, Detroit, and Green Bay. Green Bay beats
CSU, Loyola, or UIC and loses to the other two.
Head-to-Head if CSU loses to WSU and Detroit: CSU
would be 4-2, Green Bay would be 2-4, VU would be
3-3, and Milwaukee would be 3-3. CSU would be the
3 seed.
Head-to-Head if CSU loses to Green Bay and either
WSU or Detroit: All 4 teams would be 3-3, so VU can
snag the 3 seed by beating Butler. Otherwise, they
lose it because they were swept by #2 WSU while at
least 2 of the other teams split with WSU.
i. Green Bay, VU, and Detroit finish 10-8 while CSU
finishes 9-9 and Milwaukee finishes 9-9 or worse.
In this scenario, Green Bay beats CSU and loses to
UIC and Loyola. Valpo splits their remaining two
games against Loyola and Butler. Detroit beats
WSU, CSU, and YSU.
Head-to-Head: Green Bay is 3-1, VU is 2-2, and
Detroit is 1-3. Green Bay gets the 3 seed.
j. Green Bay, VU, and Milwaukee finish 10-8 while CSU
finishes 9-9 and Detroit finishes 9-9 or worse.
In this scenario, Green Bay beats CSU and loses to
UIC and Loyola. Valpo splits their remaining two
games against Loyola and Butler. Milwaukee beats
CSU, Loyola, and UIC.
Head-to-Head: All 3 teams are 2-2. A win over
Butler gets Valpo the 3 seed. A loss takes it away
because #2 WSU swept Valpo while Green Bay and
Milwaukee split with WSU.
k. CSU, VU, and Detroit finish 10-8 while Green Bay
finishes 9-9 and Milwaukee finishes 9-9 or worse.
In this scenario, CSU beats Green Bay while losing
to Milwaukee, Detroit, and WSU. Valpo splits their
remaining two games against Loyola and Butler.
Detroit beats WSU, CSU, and YSU.
Head-to-Head: CSU would be 1-3, VU is 2-2, Detroit
is 3-1. Detroit gets the 3 seed.
l. CSU, VU, and Milwaukee finish 10-8 while Green Bay
finishes 9-9 and Detroit finishes 9-9 or worse.
In this scenario, CSU beats Green Bay while losing
to Milwaukee, Detroit, and WSU. Valpo splits their
remaining two games against Loyola and Butler.
Milwaukee beats CSU, Loyola, and UIC.
Head-to-Head: All 3 teams would be 3-3. Again, the
only way for VU to get the 3 seed is by beating
Butler.
m. CSU, Green Bay, and VU finish 10-8 while Milwaukee
and Detroit finish 9-9 or worse.
In this scenario, CSU beats one of Green Bay,
Milwaukee, WSU, and Detroit. Valpo splits their
remaining two games against Loyola and Butler.
Green Bay beats one of CSU, Loyola, and UIC.
Head-to-Head if CSU beats Green Bay: CSU would be
3-1, Green Bay would be 1-3, and VU would be 2-2.
CSU would get the 3 seed.
Head-to-Head if Green Bay beats CSU: All 3 teams
would be 2-2, and the only way for VU to get the 3
seed is by beating Butler.
n. CSU and VU finish 10-8 while Green Bay, Milwaukee,
and Detroit finish 9-9 or worse.
In this scenario, CSU beats Green Bay and loses to
Milwaukee, WSU, and Detroit. Valpo splits their
remaining two games against Loyola and Butler.
CSU and VU split with each other. A win over
Butler gives the 3 seed to VU while a loss gives
it to CSU who split with WSU.
o. Green Bay and VU finish 10-8 while CSU, Milwaukee,
and Detroit finish 9-9 or worse.
In this scenario, Green Bay beats CSU and loses to
Loyola and UIC. Valpo splits their remaining two
games against Loyola and Butler.
Green Bay and VU split with each other. A win over
Butler gives the 3 seed to VU while a loss gives it
to Green Bay who split with WSU.
So, to sum up: VU needs the following in order to get
the 3 seed:
a. Finish 11-7 AND
b. Green Bay beats CSU
OR
a. Beat Butler AND
b. Be in a 5-way tie where Green Bay splits with CSU OR
c. Be in a 4-way tie excluding Milwaukee where CSU
sweeps Green Bay OR
d. Be in a 4-way tie excluding Detroit where Green Bay
splits with CSU OR
e. Be in a 3-way tie excluding CSU and Detroit OR
f. Be in a 3-way tie excluding Green Bay and Detroit OR
g. Be in a 3-way tie excluding Milwaukee and Detroit
where Green Bay splits with CSU OR
h. Be in a 2-way tie (can only happen with either Green
Bay or CSU)
I'm not sure how to simplify that further.
4. CSU alone finishes 12-6
3rd place would be 11-7 or 10-8. The analysis is
largely the same as in 1 except that here Detroit can
also finish 10-8 and CSU can beat WSU.
If WSU or Green Bay finishes 12-6, there's no chance for
VU to get the 3 seed.
a. WSU finishes 11-7
VU has no chance at the 3 seed because they were
swept by WSU (even if Green Bay finishes 11-7).
b. Green Bay finishes 11-7 and WSU finishes 10-8
VU obviously has to beat both Loyola and Butler to
finish 11-7, at which point, VU wins the tiebreaker:
they split with Green Bay, and they would be the
only team to beat Butler.
c. Otherwise, VU can secure the 3 seed outright by
going 11-7
d. WSU, Green Bay, and VU can all finish 10-8
(Milwaukee and Detroit both lose to CSU in this
scenario).
Again, WSU alone kills VU's chance for a 3 seed,
whether Green Bay is also 10-8 or not. And since
WSU can finish no lower than 10-8, that's the end
of this thread.
So, to sum up: VU needs the following in order to get
the 3 seed:
a. VU must finish 11-7, beating both Loyola and Butler
b. WSU must finish 10-8 and Green Bay must finish 11-7
or 10-8.
5. Green Bay alone finishes 12-6 and gets the 2 seed
This means that Green Bay beats CSU, Loyola, and UIC.
In order for VU to have any chance at the 3 seed, WSU
must lose to Detroit, CSU, and YSU to finish 10-8, CSU
must lose to either Detroit, Milwaukee, or both, and
VU must finish 11-7 by beating both Loyola and Butler.
This would give VU the 3 seed outright or by beating
Butler (VU split with CSU).
Note: Obviously if at least 2 of CSU, WSU, and Green Bay
finish 12-6, there's no way Valpo gets the 3 seed. Slighly
less obvious is that if at least 2 of those 3 tie for 2nd
place at 11-7, VU is also shut out of the 3 seed.
6. WSU, CSU, or Green Bay wins the 2 seed outright at 11-7
In these cases, Valpo's best record can be 10-8.
a. WSU is 11-7 (beating one of CSU, Detroit, and YSU
and losing to the other two).
CSU and Green Bay must finish 10-8 or worse. CSU
beats one of Green Bay, Milwaukee, Detroit, and WSU.
Green Bay beats one of CSU, Loyola, and UIC.
In all 3 cases (2 two-way ties and 1 three-way tie),
the tie remains unbroken after considering head-to-
head competition. VU can win the 3 seed by beating
Butler, while a loss to Butler gives the 3 seed to
either CSU or Green Bay because they split with WSU.
b. Otherwise, Valpo ends up in a tie with WSU which is
death to VU's quest for a 3 seed.
7. The 2nd place team finishes 10-8.
One of these teams must be WSU who already has 10 wins.
This means that they lose to Detroit, CSU, and Green
Bay, meaning CSU must also be 10-8. That in turn
means CSU loses to Detroit, Milwaukee, and Green Bay,
which means that Green Bay must also be 10-8, losing to
UIC and Loyola.
It also means that Milwaukee can be 10-8 by beating UIC
and Loyola, and Detroit can finish 10-8 by beating YSU.
a. WSU, CSU, Green Bay, VU, Milwaukee, and Detroit all
tie at 10-8.
Head-to-Head: WSU would be 6-4, CSU would be 4-6,
Green Bay would be 6-4, Milwaukee would be 5-5, VU
would be 4-6, and Detroit would be 5-5. WSU and
Green Bay would both be seeded ahead of VU.
b. WSU, CSU, Green Bay, VU, and Milwaukee all tie at
10-8, while Detroit is 9-9 or worse.
Head-to-Head: WSU would be 5-3, CSU would be 4-4,
Green Bay would be 4-4, VU would be 3-5, and
Milwaukee would be 4-4. WSU would be the 2 seed
and VU would end up with the 4 seed.
c. WSU, CSU, Green Bay, VU, and Detroit all tie at
10-8, while Milwaukee is 9-9 or worse.
Head-to-Head: WSU would be 5-3, CSU would be 3-5,
Green Bay would be 5-3, VU would be 3-5, and
Detroit would be 4-4. WSU and Green Bay would both
be seeded ahead of VU.
d. WSU, CSU, Green Bay, and VU all tie at 10-8, while
Milwaukee and Detroit are 9-9 or worse.
Head-to-Head: WSU is 4-2, CSU is 3-3, Green Bay is
3-3, and VU is 2-4. WSU gets the 2 seed, and VU
ends up with the 5 seed.
Hence if 2nd place is 10-8, VU cannot get the 3 seed,
simply because there's no way for them to be in just a
2-way tie with WSU.
Phew! Got that, Valpo fans? ;)
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