Butler 74 Valparaiso 69
Seed Team Conf 1st round matchup
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#1 Butler 18-0 Has clinched #1 seed and double-bye
#2 Wright State 12-5 Has clinched #2 seed and double-bye
#3 Green Bay 10-7 Clinched: will host #10 Youngstown State
#4 Valparaiso 10-8 Would host #9 UIC
#5 Cleveland State 9-8 Would host #8 Loyola
#6 Milwaukee 9-8 Would host #7 Detroit
#7 Detroit 8-9
#8 Loyola 5-12 clinched
#9 UIC 3-14 clinched
#10 Youngstown State 2-15 clinched
Valpo's loss to Butler clinches the 3 seed for Green Bay (their sweep of Detroit breaks all ties with Milwaukee and CSU in their favor, after Valpo is eliminated because of WSU), who will host Youngstown State on Tuesday (YSU has the 10 seed because even if they tie with UIC, UIC's win over Green Bay eliminates the Penguins.
Meanwhile, Valpo needs help to get anything other than the 6 seed. If Wright State beats Cleveland State and UIC beats Milwaukee, Valpo gets the 4 seed as the only team left with 10 wins. If either CSU or Milwaukee wins and the other loses, Valpo falls to the 5 seed because of the dreaded WSU tiebreaker, and for the same reason if both CSU and Milwaukee win, Valpo ends up with the 6 seed.
Cleveland State can clinch the 4 seed by beating WSU if UIC also beats Milwaukee (this win breaks the tie with Valpo in their favor). If Milwaukee wins, CSU can still clinch the 5 seed with a win (since Valpo is the first tiebreak loser because of WSU). If they lose, they need help from Youngstown State to get the 6 seed. If they lose and Detroit beats YSU, Cleveland State falls to the 7 seed.
Milwaukee can clinch the 4 seed by beating UIC. They win the remaining tiebreaker with CSU because they split with Detroit while CSU was swept by them. If they lose, they need help from WSU and YSU to get the 5 seed. If Detroit beats YSU or CSU beats WSU, Milwaukee ends up with the 6 seed.
Detroit still can obtain the 5 seed by beating YSU if WSU also beats CSU and UIC also beats Milwaukee (they win the 3-way head-to-head tiebreaker -- 2-0 vs. CSU, 1-1 vs. Milwaukee while Milwaukee is also 1-1 against CSU). If they win and WSU and Milwaukee win, Detroit gets the 6 seed because they win the tiebreaker from CSU having swept them. If CSU wins, or if Detroit loses to YSU, Detroit gets the 7 seed.
To put it another way, there are 6 scenarios left (the Green Bay-Loyola game means nothing, and the YSU-Detroit game means nothing if CSU wins)
1. CSU beats WSU, UIC beats UWM: Valpo is eliminated because of WSU. CSU is then eliminated by Green Bay, if necessary, because of Detroit. CSU gets the 4 seed, Valpo the 5 seed. Even if Detroit wins, they lose the tiebreaker with Milwaukee because of WSU. UWM gets the 6 seed, Detroit the 7 seed.
2. CSU beats WSU, UWM beats UIC: Valpo is eliminated first because of WSU, so they fall to the 6 seed. CSU is eliminated next because of Detroit, so they fall to the 5 seed. Milwaukee wins the tiebreaker and gets the 4 seed. Detroit ends up with the 7 seed because everyone else involved has 10 wins.
3. WSU beats CSU, UIC beats UWM, UDM beats YSU: Valpo is the only team left of the 4 with 10 wins, so they get the 4 seed. Detroit wins the 3-way tiebreaker via head-to-head competition (Detroit 3-1, Milwaukee 2-2, CSU 1-3), therefore, Detroit gets the 5 seed, Milwaukwee the 6 seed, and CSU the 7 seed.
4. WSU beats CSU, UIC beats UWM, YSU beats UDM: Valpo is the only team left of the 4 with 10 wins, so they get the 4 seed. Milwaukee wins the tiebreaker with CSU because of Detroit, so Milwaukee gets the 5 seed, and CSU the 6 seed. With 8 wins, Detroit gets the 7 seed.
5. WSU beats CSU, UWM beats UIC, UDM beats YSU: Milwaukee wins the tiebreaker with Valpo because of WSU, so Milwaukee gets the 4 seed, Valpo the 5 seed. Detroit wins the tiebreaker with CSU because of their sweep of CSU, so Detroit gets the 6 seed, CSU the 7 seed.
6. WSU beats CSU, UWM beats UIC, YSU beats UDM: Milwaukee wins the tiebreaker with Valpo because of WSU, so Milwaukee gets the 4 seed, Valpo the 5 seed. CSU gets the 6 seed and Detroit the 7 seed because Detroit only has 8 wins.