Sunday, February 14, 2010

Men's seed race 2/14/2010

Scores from 2/13/2009:

Wright State 67 Green Bay 54
Valparaiso 77 Youngstown State 75
Milwaukee 71 Detroit 60
Loyola 80 UIC 63
Butler 70 Cleveland State 59

Seed Team Conf 1st round matchup
---- ---------- ---- -----------------
#1 Butler 16-0 Has clinched #1 seed and double-bye
#2 Wright State 10-5 Would receive double-bye
#3 Cleveland State 9-5 Would host #10 Youngstown State
#4 Green Bay 9-6 Would host #9 UIC
#5 Valparaiso 9-7 Would host #8 Loyola
#6 Detroit 7-8 Would host #7 Milwaukee
#7 Milwaukee 6-8
#8 Loyola 5-10
#9 UIC 2-13
#10 Youngstown State 2-13

As stated previously, technically UIC is "winning" the tiebreaker with YSU because they are 0-1 against Butler while YSU is 0-2 against Butler. That's likely to wash out next Wednesday, but for now...

The more interesting situation is the logjam in the upper half. Wright State currently leads in Mark Lazerus' "Race For The Second Seed (TM)." Of those 4 teams, CSU plays both WSU and UWGB in the remaining schedule, so they have the most control over the situation.

It has been a forgone conclusion in Valparaiso that the Crusaders lost their chance for the 2nd seed when they lost to CSU Thursday night. Nobody's been saying they are mathematically eliminated from the 2 seed, but I've been curious to see what would have to happen for Valpo to snag the double-bye.

1. They can't afford to finish tied (much less behind)
Wright State, because WSU owns the tiebreaker, having
swept VU.
2. If 10-8 is 2nd place, it has to be a 4-way tie because
WSU would have to lose to CSU, giving the Vikings 10
wins. CSU in turn would have to lose to Green Bay,
giving the Phoenix 10 wins. In such a situation, the
head-to-head competition shakes out like this: WSU 4-2,
CSU 3-3, Green Bay 3-3, Valpo 2-4. So, that wouldn't
do it.
3. If 11-7 is 2nd place, it is possible for CSU, WSU, and
Green Bay to all finish 10-8 (WSU loses to CSU, Detroit,
and YSU; CSU loses to Green Bay, Milwaukee, and Detroit;
Green Bay loses to Loyola and UIC). That would leave
VU alone in 2nd place. It's not a likely outcome, but
it is possible. Obviously it means VU beats Loyola and
then nationally ranked Butler to close out its season,
and that alone is very unlikely.
4. Slightly more likely within the 11-7 scenario is one or
more teams tied with VU at 11-7. In order for VU to
survive the head-to-head competition tiebreaker, WSU
must finish 10-8 (meaning they lose to CSU). Any head-
to-head competition including WSU eliminates VU.
a. GB and CSU also 11-7: GB will be 3-1 or 2-2, CSU
will be 2-2 or 1-3, VU is 2-2. The only way VU
survives this tiebreaker is if CSU beats GB. All 3
teams would be 2-2, and VU would win the tiebreaker
with a win over Butler.
b. A tie with either GB or CSU would always favor VU
because the Crusaders split with both teams, and
VU's win over Butler would award VU the 2 seed.

So, VU has to win out, finishing 11-7, Wright State must
lose out to finish 10-8, and Cleveland State must beat Green
Bay. If all these things happen, Valpo has the 2 seed.

A tall order, to be sure.

1 comment:

Jim Squire said...

4.a. is incorrect: "The only way VU survives this tiebreaker is if CSU beats GB. All 3 teams would be 2-2, and VU would win the tiebreaker with a win over Butler."

Actually, that should read "if GB beats CSU." CSU beat GB earlier in the year, not the other way around.