Thursday, February 25, 2010

Men's seed race 2/25/2010

Scores from 2/16/2009:

Green Bay 74 Cleveland State 57

Scores from 2/17/2009:

Wright State 70 Detroit 53
Butler 73 UIC 55
Valparaiso 84 Loyola 73

Scores from 2/18/2009:

Milwaukee 69 Cleveland State 59

Seed Team Conf 1st round matchup
---- ---------- ---- -----------------
#1 Butler 17-0 Has clinched #1 seed and double-bye
#2 Wright State 11-5 Would receive double-bye
#3 Green Bay 10-6 Would host #10 UIC
#4 Valparaiso 10-7 Would host #9 Youngstown State
#5 Cleveland State 9-7 Would host #8 Loyola
#6 Milwaukee 8-8 Would host #7 Detroit
#7 Detroit 7-9
#8 Loyola 5-11
#9 Youngstown State 2-14
#10 UIC 2-14

The #1 seed is all Butler's. No one can come close to taking it away from them.

The 9 and 10 seeds belong to YSU and UIC collectively. No one can else can match their 14 losses. They split their season series. They each have the same number of losses against Butler, CSU, Detroit, and Valpo. UIC plays Green Bay and Milwaukee next week. YSU plays Detroit next week. YSU has one tiebreaker in their pocket already: they split with Loyola while UIC was swept by them.

Loyola has clinched the 8 seed. They can tie with Detroit, but Detroit swept Loyola so Loyola loses the tiebreaker. NOTE: We're not allowed to break this tie until all higher ranking ties are broken.

That leaves 6 teams fighting for 6 spots: WSU, Green Bay, Valparaiso, Cleveland State, Milwaukee, and Detroit. They aren't all fighting for all 6 spots of course, but they represent the muddled middle in this race.

WSU can finish from anywhere 11-7 to 13-5. Green Bay, Valpo, and CSU are the only other teams that can finish 11-7. The only game left involving two of those four teams is WSU vs. CSU and CSU would win that game if WSU finishes 11-7.

Key tiebreaker situations:

WSU and Green Bay are the only teams to sweep Detroit. Valpo and Milwaukee have split with Detroit, and CSU needs to beat them this week to split with them (or else be swept by them).

Green Bay and Milwaukee are the only teams to split with WSU. Valpo and Detroit have been swept by them, and CSU will join them unless they beat WSU this week.

If Detroit loses to both CSU and YSU and Loyola beats both Milwaukee and Green Bay, they tie at 7-11. Against Detroit/Loyola, WSU is 3-1 (2-0, 1-1), Green Bay would be 3-1 (2-0, 1-1), Valpo is 3-1 (1-1, 2-0), Milwaukee is 2-2 (1-1, 1-1), and CSU would be 3-1 (1-1, 2-0).

WSU is the only team to sweep Valpo. Everyone else split with them. Since Valpo must finish no worse than 6th, they break all ties involving WSU in WSU's favor (A tie involving Green Bay would still differentiate via Valpo even if Valpo is also tied with Milwaukee since everyone else split with each other. If CSU is involved and they beat WSU that would still be true. If CSU is involved and they lost to WSU, that would favor WSU even more. If WSU is tied with CSU and Milwaukee at 11-7, then even if Green Bay is tied with Valpo at 10-8, Valpo still breaks the tie in favor of WSU because everyone else has split with each other).

Wright State: can clinch 2 seed with 1 win or 1 Green Bay loss.

Green Bay: can clinch 3 seed with 2 wins (gets 2 seed if WSU also loses 2). They can clinch 4 seed (with an exception described later) with 1 win. If they lose 2, they can still get the 3 seed if VU loses and CSU splits. If VU wins and CSU wins 2, they end up with the 5 seed (worst case). If either VU or CSU ends up with 11 wins and the other with 10, they get the 4 seed.

Valparaiso: can clinch the 5 seed with a win. If WSU also wins at least 1 and Green Bay also loses at least 1, they get the 3 seed because the tiebreaker moves to common opponents and nobody else has beaten Butler. If WSU loses 2, the win over Butler would be useless because WSU kills Valpo in head-to-head. As long as CSU loses at least 1, Valpo clinches at least a 4 seed, otherwise they end up with the 5 seed. With a 10-8 record, they can still get the 4 seed if CSU loses 2 and Milwaukee loses at least 1. If CSU wins at least 1 and Milwaukee wins 2, Valpo slips all the way to the 6 seed. Otherwise they get the 5 seed.

Cleveland State: can clinch the 3 seed with 2 wins plus 2 Green Bay loses, and either a VU loss or 2 WSU loses. At 11-7, if WSU and Green Bay each split, and VU wins, they get the 5 seed (with an exception described later), otherwise they get the 4 seed. They can also get the 4 seed at 10-8 with at least 1 Milwaukee loss and a VU loss (with an exception described later). If VU wins, and Milwaukee wins 2, they fall to the 6 seed. If they lose 2 to finish 9-9, then they need both Milwaukee and Detroit to finish 8-10 (Detroit beats CSU in this scenario) to get the 5 seed. If one of those two events occurs, they get the 6 seed. If neither occurs, they get the 7 seed (if they tie with Detroit at 9-9, Detroit wins the tiebreaker due to sweeping CSU; if they tie with Detroit and Milwaukee at 9-9, Detroit's head-to-head is 3-1, Milwaukee's 2-2, CSU's 1-3).

Milwaukee: can clinch the 4 seed if they win 2, Valpo loses, and CSU loses at least once. Green Bay keeps them from the 3 seed because they swept Detroit, but they trump Valpo (by splitting with WSU) and CSU (by splitting with CSU or by sweeping Detroit, depending on which team CSU beats this week) in a tie for 4th. If Valpo loses or CSU loses at least once, 10-8 gets them the 5 seed. If both Valpo and CSU finish 11-7, they get the 6 seed. They can clinch the 5 seed by winning 1 game if CSU loses 2 and Detroit loses 1 (which means Detroit beats CSU and loses to YSU). If CSU wins at least 1 game and Detroit wins 2 (meaning Detroit beats CSU and CSU beats WSU), then 9-9 gets them the 6 seed. 8-10 clinches the 6 seed unless Detroit wins 2, in which case Milwaukee gets the 7 seed.

Detroit: can clinch the 5 seed if they win 2, CSU loses 2, and Milwaukee loses at least 1 game. In a two way tie with CSU, Detroit sweeps them, and in a 3-way tie with CSU and Milwaukee, Detroit's sweep of CSU paired with Milwaukee's splitting with each team immediately establishes the heirarchy Detroit, Milwaukee, CSU. They can still clinch the 6 seed if they win 2 and either CSU loses 2 AND Milwaukee wins 2 OR CSU wins 1 and Milwaukee loses 2. They win the tiebreaker with CSU by sweeping them, but they lose a tiebreaker with Milwaukee because they were swept by WSU. Otherwise, Detroit is the 7 seed (resorting to their sweep of Loyola if necessary).

EXCEPTIONS: if Valpo and CSU tie at 10-8 (with or without Green Bay and/or Milwaukee) and WSU sweeps CSU, there is no common opponent that breaks the tie, so it will fall to RPI. At the moment, CSU is 160, Valpo 167, so anything can happen. In fact, with VU playing 16 Butler while CSU plays 91 WSU and 198 Detroit, those rankings are liable to flip-flop. This could be for the 4 seed or for the 5 seed.

If Green Bay and CSU tie at 11-7 (with Valpo already grabbing the 3 seed at 11-7), and Loyola and Detroit are both 7-11, there is no "common opponent" (where Loyola is not a common opponent and Detroit is not a common opponent, but in their place, "Loyola/Detroit" is the common opponent) that breaks the tie (Green Bay swept Detroit but would split with Loyola while CSU swept Loyola but would split with Detroit, and Green Bay would sweep UIC), so it would fall to RPI. At the moment, Green Bay is 97, CSU 160, and that ranking is not likely to flip-flop.

Again, Loyola has clinched the 8 seed, and UIC and YSU are fighting it out for the 9 seed between them.

Got it in just under the wire. Wouldn't bet my life savings that it is 100% accurate, of course ;)

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