Valpo 66 Milwaukee 57
Seed Team Conf 1st-round match up
---- ---------- ---- ------------------
#1 Butler 14-2 Double-bye
#2 Wright St. 12-4 Double-bye
Can get #1 by winning out
#3 CSU 11-6 Would host Detroit
Needs help to get #2
#4 UIC 8-8 Would host YSU
Can get #4 by winning out
or sweeping Milwaukee
#5 Milwaukee 8-8 Would host Loyola
Can get #4 by winning out
or splitting with UIC
#6 Valparaiso 7-9 Would host Green Bay
Can get at least #5 by winning out
#7 Green Bay 7-9 Can get at least #6 by winning out
#8 Loyola 6-10 Needs help to get #6 or #7,
can go no higher
#9 YSU 5-12 Needs help to get #8,
can go no higher
#10 Detroit 3-13 Clinched #10
Currently, UIC holds the tiebreaker over Milwaukee with their 1-0 record in head-to-head, but Milwaukee hosts them this week and eliminate that tiebreaker advantage.
Likewise, Valpo currently holds the tiebreaker over Green Bay, but if they lose to Wright State, that tiebreaker advantage would evaporate (Both are 0-2 against Butler, Green Bay is 1-1 against Wright State, but Valpo is 1-0).
Looking ahead to this weekend:
Detroit has clinched the 10 seed, since they were swept by YSU.
Butler clinches #1 seed with 1 Wright St. loss or a victory over Detroit. If Wright St. wins out and Butler loses to Detroit, Wright St. gets the #1 seed via tie-breaker (2-0 against Butler). Butler has clinched the double-bye.
Wright State can clinch the #2 seed with 1 win or 1 CSU loss. They play Valpo and Butler and CSU plays YSU.
If Wright State and CSU both end up tied at 12-6, here is what can happen:
First of all, this implies that YSU is 6-12 (clinching the 9 seed) and Valpo is either 8-10 or 9-9.
They have split with each other and will have both split against Butler, so...
1. 4th place is 10-8
Only UIC and Milwaukee can attain 10-8 records, and they
both can't do it because they play each other on Saturday.
a. UIC is 10-8. Milwaukee would be 9-9 or 8-10
Wright State is 2-0 against UIC while CSU is 1-1, so
Wright State gets the 2 seed, CSU the 3 seed, UIC the
4 seed.
Green Bay would have to be 8-10 or 7-11 (losing to
UIC), so the only possible 9-9 teams would be Valpo
and Milwaukee.
1. Both are 9-9
Valpo split with Milwaukee, both were swept by
Butler, but Valpo would be 2-0 against Wright
State while Milwaukee is 1-1, so Valpo gets the 5
seed, Milwaukee the 6 seed.
This means Milwaukee beats Loyola on Thursday.
If Green Bay beats them on Saturday, Green Bay at
8-10 gets the 7 seed, and Loyola is 6-12 but
since CSU would have beaten YSU, and Loyola gets
the 8 seed.
If Green Bay loses to Loyola, then both are 7-11
and another tie must be broken: Loyola will have
split with Green Bay. Both were swept by Butler.
But Loyola was swept by Wright State, while Green
Bay split with them. Therefore, Green Bay still
gets the 7 seed, and Loyola the 8 seed.
2. Valpo is 9-9 and Milwaukee is 8-10
Valpo gets the 5 seed. Green Bay, losing to UIC,
will be 8-10 by beating Loyola or 7-11 by losing
to Loyola. Loyola, beating Milwaukee, will be
7-11 or 8-10 respectively.
a. Green Bay beats Loyola and ties with Milwaukee
at 8-10
Milwaukee swept Green Bay, so Milwaukee gets
the 6 seed, Green Bay the 7 seed, and Loyola
at 7-11 the 8 seed.
b. Green Bay loses to Loyola and Loyola ties with
Milwaukee at 8-10
Loyola will have swept Milwaukee and thus
climbed all the way up to the 6 seed.
Milwaukee gets the 7 seed and Green Bay gets
the 8 seed.
3. Milwaukee is 9-9 and Valpo is 8-10
Milwaukee gets the 5 seed. Once again, it all
depends on Green Bay vs. Loyola.
a. Green Bay beats Loyola and ties with Valpo at
8-10. The two teams split, they both were
swept by #1 Butler, but Valpo swept #2 Wright
State while Green Bay split with them, so
Valpo gets the 6 seed, Green Bay gets the 7
seed, and Loyola gets the 8 seed.
b. Loyola beats Green Bay and ties with Valpo at
8-10. Loyola swept Valpo and would therefore
get the 6 seed, Valpo the 7 seed, and Green
Bay the 8 seed.
4. Both are 8-10. This means that there would be a
3 way tie with the winner of the Green Bay-Loyola
game.
a. Green Bay beats Loyola
Valpo is 2-2, Milwaukee 3-1, and Green Bay
1-3 in the round-robin head-to-head, giving
Milwaukee the 5 seed, Valpo the 6 seed, Green
Bay the 7 seed, and Loyola at 7-11 the 8 seed.
b. Loyola beats Green Bay
Valpo is 1-3, Milwaukee 1-3, and Loyola 4-0 in
the round-robin head-to-head, giving Loyola
the 5 seed. Valpo wins the remaining
tiebreaker with Milwaukee because of Wright
State, as shown above. Valpo gets the 6 seed,
Milwaukee the 7 seed, and Green Bay the 8 seed.
b. Milwaukee is 10-8. This implies that UIC is 9-9 or
8-10. Also, if UIC is 9-9, then Green Bay is no better
than 8-10 because in this scenario UIC loses to
Milwaukee and therefore must beat Green Bay. Hence in
the list of alternatives below, "UIC and Green Bay are
both 9-9" is omitted because it can't happen.
Both Wright State and CSU split with Milwaukee, so we
have to move on to 5th place. 5th place will be either
9-9 or 8-10.
1. 5th place is 9-9
a. UIC is the only 9-9 team
Wright State is 2-0 while CSU is 1-1, so Wright
State gets the 2 seed, CSU gets the 3 seed,
Milwaukee the 4 seed, UIC the 5 seed.
Since UIC loses to Milwaukee, they would have
to beat Green Bay to be 9-9. Valpo would be
8-10. Green Bay would be 8-10 by beating
Loyola, 7-11 by losing to Loyola. In the
latter case, they would be tied with Loyola.
If they were tied with Valpo, Wright State
would again break the tie in Valpo's favor
anyway. If they were tied with Loyola, the
Wright State would break the tie in favor of
Green Bay as shown above.
So, no matter what happens, Valpo would be
the 6 seed, Green Bay the 7 seed, and Loyola
the 8 seed.
b. UIC and Valpo are 9-9
CSU is 3-1 (2-0 against Valpo, 1-1 against
UIC), while Wright state would be 2-2 (2-0
against UIC, 0-2 against Valpo), so CSU gets
the 2 seed, Wright State gets the 3 seed,
and Milwaukee gets the 4 seed.
UIC and Valpo split, they both were swept by
Butler, but in this case UIC split with CSU
while Valpo was swept by them, so UIC gets
the 5 seed, and Valpo the 6 seed.
Since UIC loses to Milwaukee, they beat
Green Bay so that Green Bay is 8-10 or 7-11,
while Loyola is 6-12 or 7-11, respectively.
Again, even in the latter case, Wright State
breaks the tie in Green Bay's favor, so
Green Bay gets the 7 seed and Loyola the 8
seed.
c. Valpo is the only 9-9 team
CSU is 2-0 while Wright State would be 0-2,
so CSU gets the 2 seed, Wright State the 3
seed, Milwaukee the 4 seed, Valpo the 5 seed.
This puts both UIC and Green Bay at 8-10,
with Loyola at 7-11. In this scenario, the
two teams split. They both were swept by #1
Butler. They both split with #2 CSU, but UIC
was swept by #3 Wright State while Green Bay
split with them, so Green Bay gets the 6 seed,
UIC the 7 seed, and Loyola the 8 seed.
d. Valpo and Green Bay are 9-9
CSU is 3-1 (2-0 against Valpo, 1-1 against
Green Bay), while Wright State would 1-3 (1-1
against Green Bay, 0-2 against Valpo), so CSU
gets the 2 seed, Wright State the 3 seed, and
Milwaukee the 4 seed.
In this case, CSU is the tiebreaker and it
favors Green Bay (1-1) over Valpo (0-2), so
Green Bay gets the 5 seed, Valpo the 6 seed.
UIC would be 8-10, and Green Bay would have
beaten Loyola. Hence, UIC gets the 7 seed,
and Loyola the 8 seed.
e. Green Bay is the only 9-9 team
Both teams split with Green Bay, so ...
6th place has to be 8-10, and this would
actually be both Valpo and UIC because in
this overall scenario Wright State always
loses to Valpo on Saturday, and UIC can't
finish any worse than 8-10
As we have seen, CSU wins this tiebreaker
3-1 to 2-2. CSU gets the 2 seed, Wright
State the 3 seed, Milwaukee the 4 seed,
and Green Bay the 5 seed.
Valpo and UIC would be tied at 8-10 (with
both Milwaukee and Green Bay winning out,
Loyola falls to 6-12). CSU breaks the
tie in favor of UIC (1-1) over Valpo
(0-2), so UIC gets the 6 seed, Valpo the
7 seed, and Loyola the 8 seed.
2. 5th place is 8-10
This would necessarily involve a 3-way
tie between UIC, Valpo, and Green Bay.
Green Bay would be 8-10 because one of
the UIC losses this weekend would come in
Green Bay Thursday.
CSU is 4-2 (2-0 against Valpo, 1-1 against
UIC, 1-1 against Green Bay), while Wright
State would be 3-3 (0-2 against Valpo, 2-0
against UIC, 1-1 against Green Bay), so
CSU gets the 2 seed, Wright State the 3
seed, Milwaukee the 4 seed.
The 3 teams tied for 5th are each 2-2 in
the round-robin head-to-head. They were
all swept by #1 Butler. UIC and Green Bay
split with #2 CSU while Valpo was swept by
them, so Valpo drops out with the 7 seed.
Green Bay and UIC will have split, both
swept by #1 Butler, both split with #2
CSU. UIC was swept by #3 Wright State,
while Green Bay split with them, so Green
Bay gets the 5 seed and UIC gets the 6
seed.
2. 4th place is 9-9
a. UIC is the only 9-9 team
Again, Wright State wins this tiebreaker 2-0 to 1-1.
Wright State gets the 2 seed, CSU the 3 seed, and
UIC the 4 seed.
Milwaukee and Valpo would be 8-10. Milwaukee would
be UIC's remaining victory, so Green Bay would be
their remaining loss, and Green Bay would also be
8-10. Loyola would also be 8-10, beating both
Milwaukee and Green Bay. Hence, we have a 4-way
tie at 8-10.
Milwaukee would be 3-3, Valpo is 2-4, Green Bay
would be 2-4, and Loyola would be 5-1 in the round-
robin head-to-head, giving Loyola the 5 seed and
Milwaukee the 6 seed. Wright State would break the
tie between Green Bay and Valpo, giving Valpo the 7
seed and Green Bay the 8 seed.
b. Milwaukee is the only 9-9 team
Again, Milwaukee can't break this tie because they
split with both teams. So... on to 5th place.
In this case, 5th place is necessarily a 3-way tie
between UIC, Green Bay, and Valpo all at 8-10. As
shown above, CSU wins this tiebreaker 4-2 to 3-3.
CSU gets the 2 seed, Wright State the 3 seed, and
Milwaukee the 4 seed.
UIC would be 2-2, Valpo 2-2, and Green Bay 2-2 in
the round-robin head-to-head. They all were swept
by #1 Butler. UIC and Green Bay split with #2 CSU
while Valpo was swept by them, so Valpo ends up
with the 7 seed.
UIC would split with Green Bay, both swept by
Butler, both split with CSU, but Wright State
would break the tie in favor of Green Bay. So
Green Bay gets the 5 seed and UIC the 6 seed.
Loyola gets the 8 seed.
c. Milwaukee and UIC are the only 9-9 teams
Wright State is 3-1 (2-0 against UIC, 1-1 against
Milwaukee), while CSU is 2-2 (1-1 against Milwaukee,
1-1 against UIC), so Wright State gets the 2 seed
and CSU gets the 3 seed.
a. Milwaukee loses to UIC and beats Loyola
UIC would get the 4 seed by sweeping Milwaukee,
who would get the 5 seed.
1. Green Bay beats Loyola and ties with Valpo
at 8-10
Wright State breaks this tie in favor of
Valpo, who gets the 6 seed, Green Bay the
7 seed, and Loyola the 8 seed.
2. Green Bay loses to Loyola and ties with
them at 7-11
They would split with each other. They
were swept by Butler. Loyola was swept by
Wright State while Green Bay split with
them, so here too Green Bay gets the 7
seed and Loyola the 8 seed.
b. Milwaukee beats UIC and loses to Loyola
Milwaukee splits with UIC, they both were
swept by #1 Butler, but while Milwaukee split
with #2 Wright State, UIC was swept by them,
so Milwaukee gets the 4 seed while UIC gets
the 5 seed.
1. Green Bay beats Loyola and ties with Valpo
at 8-10
Wright State breaks this tie in favor of
Valpo, who gets the 6 seed, Green Bay the
7 seed, and Loyola the 8 seed.
2. Green Bay loses to Loyola and Loyola ties
with Valpo at 8-10
Loyola swept Valpo, so they get the 6 seed,
Valpo the 7 seed, and Green Bay the 8 seed
(7-11 by losing to both UIC and Loyola).
d. UIC and Green Bay are the only 9-9 teams (here,
this is possible if UIC beats Milwaukee).
Wright State is 3-1 (2-0 against UIC, 1-1 against
Green Bay), while CSU is 2-2 (1-1 against UIC, 1-1
against Green Bay). This is identical the case (c)
above because to Wright State and CSU, Green Bay
and Milwaukee look the same. Wright State gets the
2 seed and CSU the 3 seed.
UIC will have split with Green Bay. Wright State
breaks the tie in favor of Green Bay as shown above,
so Green Bay gets the 4 seed and UIC the 5 seed.
Valpo and Milwaukee would both be 8-10. With UIC
beating Milwaukee and therefore losing to Green Bay,
Loyola will have beaten both Milwaukee and Green Bay
and would also be 8-10. As shown earlier, Loyola
wins this tiebreaker and then some (4-0 to 1-3 to
1-3) and gets the 6 seed. Wright State then breaks
the remaining tie in Valpo's favor, giving them the
7 seed and Green Bay the 8 seed.
e. UIC and Valpo are the only 9-9 teams
Again, CSU wins this tiebreaker 3-1 to 2-2. CSU
gets the 2 seed, Wright State the 3 seed. CSU
breaks the tie in UIC's favor as shown above,
giving UIC the 4 seed and Valpo the 5 seed.
With Milwaukee at 8-10 (losing to both UIC and
Loyola), UIC would have lost to Green Bay making the
latter 8-10 as well. And Loyola would have beaten
both Wisconsin teams, making them 8-10 as well.
Milwaukee would be 2-2, Green Bay would be 1-3, and
Loyola would be 3-1 in the round-robin head-to-head,
giving Loyola the 6 seed, Milwaukee the 7 seed, and
Green Bay the 8 seed.
f. Milwaukee and Green Bay are the only 9-9 teams
Wright State and CSU both split with each of these
teams, so we go on to 5th place. In this case, 5th
place has to be 8-10 and involves both Valpo and UIC,
which as we have seen is a tiebreaker CSU wins 3-1 to
2-2. CSU gets the 2 seed, Wright State the 3 seed,
Milwaukee the 4 seed because they swept Green Bay,
and Green Bay the 5 seed.
UIC and Valpo would be 8-10. Since UIC loses to both
Milwaukee and Green Bay, they in turn both lose to
Loyola who would also be 8-10. UIC is 3-1, Loyola
2-2, and Valpo 1-3 in the round-robin head-to-head,
so UIC gets the 6 seed, Loyola the 7 seed, and Valpo
the 8 seed.
g. Milwaukee and Valpo are the only 9-9 teams
CSU is 3-1 (2-0 against Valpo, 1-1 against Milwaukee),
while Wright State is 1-3 (0-2 against Valpo, 1-1
against Milwaukee), so CSU gets the 2 seed, and Wright
State gets the 3 seed. CSU in turn breaks the tie in
Milwaukee's favor, giving them the 4 seed and Valpo
the 5 seed.
UIC being 8-10, they lose to Milwaukee who in turn
loses to Loyola. Green Bay would also beat UIC and
lose to Loyola, making all 3 teams 8-10. UIC would be
3-1, Milwaukee 1-3, and Loyola 2-2 in the round-robin
head-to-head, giving UIC the 6 seed, Loyola the 7 seed,
and Milwaukee the 8 seed.
h. UIC, Green Bay, and Valpo are 9-9 (Milwaukee would be
8-10)
As we have seen, CSU wins this tiebreaker 4-2 to 3-3,
gaining the 2 seed and Wright State the 3 seed.
UIC would be 2-2, Green Bay 2-2, and Valpo 2-2 in the
round-robin head-to-head. All 3 were swept by #1
Butler. As has been seen above, CSU knocks Valpo out
of the tie, giving them the 6 seed. Wright State
breaks the remaining tie in favor of Green Bay, giving
them the 4 seed and UIC the 5 seed. Milwaukee at 8-10
would be the 7 seed and Loyola at 7-11 would be the 8
seed.
i. Milwaukee, Green Bay, and Valpo are 9-9 (UIC would be
8-10)
CSU is 4-2 (2-0 against Valpo, 1-1 against Milwaukee,
1-1 against Green Bay) while Wright State would be 2-4
(0-2 against Valpo, 1-1 against Milwaukee, 1-1 against
Green Bay). CSU gets the 2 seed, Wright State the 3
seed.
Milwaukee is 3-1, Valpo 2-2, and Green Bay 1-3 in the
round-robin head-to-head, giving Milwaukee the 4 seed,
Valpo the 5 seed, and Green Bay the 6 seed. UIC would
have the 7 seed at 8-10 and Loyola would have the 8
seed at 7-11.
Stay tuned for Part 2: "Wright State wins out, Butler loses out"
Thanks to WAJC69 from the Butler board for providing the Official Tie Breaker Rules
Thanks to uwmfansince1997 from the Milwaukee board for providing a link to the Horizon League's official "Track the Bracket" page.
4 comments:
Amazing! A very detailed analysis!
I've not gone through it carefully, but it looks really nice.
One nitpick:
"First of all, this implies that YSU is 6-12"
I guess all of your scenarios actually have YSU losing to CSU, and so at 5-13?
I'd worked through some of the Valpo implications myself, but hadn't got around to the full details of even just their possibilities. And, I didn't have the official tiebreaker rules.
Those shake things up a bit... Looks like the only scenarios that have Valpo as the 4th seed are, in fact, with YSU beating CSU. (Obviously, Valpo would be happy to get at least 6th. I've not thought about preferred matchups, and what seeding might be "best".)
Looks like a great blog! I wish I'd found it earlier in the season. The basketball blog at the Post Tribune linked to you recently.
adam,
Thanks! And yes, I noticed the link. "Off The Mark" is one of the places I go to for news items about Valpo. Though I only recently discovered it, thanks to a fellow Valpo fan posting something on the Valpo message board about it.
Regarding YSU at 6-12, that should have read "First of all, this implies that YSU is 5-13". The words following about clinching the 9 seed are still correct.
There is at least one scenario in Part 2 (which I'm working on at this very moment) that actually has YSU seeded 8th at 6-12, but obviously if CSU ends up 12-6, YSU has to be 5-13, not 6-12.
Good catch! If that's the only mistake I made, I'm ecstatic.
Mark Lazerus' blog at the Post Trib has only been around for a couple of weeks. But, it too is a welcome addition to my reading list. I especially like his "Couldn't get this in before the print deadline" post the other day.
I'm sad to say that the IU scandal has been distracting the local NW IN press a bit. Stories that would normally be about Valpo are going downstate. Hopefully Valpo can engineer an end-of-the-season run and merit some additional coverage.
And, if I'm nitpicking others, I should correct myself as well. I guess there are also Valpo 4th seed scenarios if Wright State wins tonight. So, a Wright State win tonight, and then a loss at Valpo. Or a Youngstown win. Both requiring Valpo to win out, naturally, and other planets aligning. Like I said, I think they'd be happy with 6th ;)
Hi, very interesting post, greetings from Greece!
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