Valpo 59 Detroit 56
Milwaukee 68 Loyola 53
Green Bay 76 UIC 73
Butler 66 Wright State 61
Seed Team Conf 1st-round match up
---- ---------- ---- ------------------
#1 Butler 15-2 Double-bye Clinched #1 seed
#2 Wright St. 12-5 Double-bye
Can clinch #2 seed
by beating Valpo
#3 CSU 11-6 Would host Detroit
Needs help to get #2
#4 Milwaukee 9-8 Would host YSU
Can clinch #4 seed with win
on Saturday
#5 Valparaiso 8-9 Would host Loyola
Can get at least #6 by winning out
#6 Green Bay 8-9 Would host UIC
Can get at least #6 by winning out
#7 UIC 8-9 Can get the #4 seed with win
on Saturday
#8 Loyola 6-11 Can secure the #8 seed
by winning on Saturday
#9 YSU 5-12 Needs help to get #8,
can go no higher
#10 Detroit 3-14 Clinched #10
Currently, Valpo holds the tiebreaker with UIC and Green Bay because they are 1-0 against Wright State (though that can change on Saturday when Valpo hosts Wright State). Green Bay split with them and currently holds the 6 seed, while UIC was swept by them and holds the 7 seed.
Looking ahead to this Saturday, the final day of ESPN's Judgment Week:
Detroit has clinched the 10 seed, since they were swept by YSU.
Butler has clinched the #1 seed by beating Wright St.
Wright State can clinch the #2 seed with 1 win or 1 CSU loss. They play Valpo and Butler and CSU plays YSU.
If Wright State and CSU both end up tied at 12-6, here is what can happen:
First of all, this implies that YSU is 5-13 (clinching the 9 seed) and Valpo is 9-9.
They have split with each other and will have both split against Butler, so...
1. 4th place is 10-8
Only Milwaukee can attain a 10-8 record (by beating UIC
on Saturday). This would guarantee the 4 seed for
Milwaukee.
This implies that UIC is 8-10.
Both Wright State and CSU split with Milwaukee, so we
have to move on to 5th place.
5th place has to be 9-9, because Valpo in this scenario
has to be 9-9.
a. Valpo is the only 9-9 team
CSU is 2-0 while Wright State would be 0-2, so CSU
gets the 2 seed, Wright State the 3 seed, and Valpo
the 5 seed.
This puts both UIC and Green Bay at 8-10, with
Loyola at 7-11 (Loyola beats Green Bay). The two
teams have now split. They both were swept by #1
Butler. They both split with #2 CSU, but UIC was
swept by #3 Wright State while Green Bay split with
them, so Green Bay gets the 6 seed, UIC the 7 seed,
and Loyola the 8 seed.
b. Valpo and Green Bay are 9-9
CSU is 3-1 (2-0 against Valpo, 1-1 against Green
Bay), while Wright State would 1-3 (1-1 against
Green Bay, 0-2 against Valpo), so CSU gets the 2
seed, and Wright State the 3 seed.
In this case, CSU is the tiebreaker and it favors
Green Bay (1-1) over Valpo (0-2), so Green Bay gets
the 5 seed, Valpo the 6 seed.
UIC would be 8-10, and Green Bay would have beaten
Loyola. Hence, UIC gets the 7 seed, and Loyola the
8 seed.
2. 4th place is 9-9
This means that Milwaukee loses to UIC on Saturday. At
least these two teams and Valpo would be tied at 9-9,
and possibly Green Bay as well.
a. Milwaukee, UIC, and Valpo are the only 9-9 teams
Wright State is 3-3 (2-0 against UIC, 1-1 against
Milwaukee, 0-2 against Valpo), while CSU is 4-2 (1-1
against Milwaukee, 1-1 against UIC, 2-0 against
Valpo), so CSU gets the 2 seed and Wright State gets
the 3 seed.
UIC would be 3-1 (2-0 against Milwaukee, 1-1 against
Valpo), Valpo is 2-2 (1-1 against each), and
Milwaukee would be 1-3 (0-2 against UIC, 1-1 against
Valpo), so UIC would get the 4 seed, Valpo the 5
seed, and Milwaukee the 6 seed.
Green Bay loses to Loyola to finish 8-10 and get the
7 seed, while Loyola has the 8 seed at 7-11.
b. Milwaukee, UIC, Valpo, and Green Bay all finish 9-9
(Green Bay beats Loyola)
Wright State is 4-4 (2-0 against UIC, 1-1 against
Green Bay, 1-1 against Milwaukee, 0-2 against Valpo),
while CSU is 5-3 (1-1 against UIC, 1-1 against Green
Bay, and 2-0 against Valpo). CSU gets the 2 seed and
Wright State the 3 seed.
Milwaukee will be 3-3, UIC 4-2, Valpo 3-3, and Green
Bay 2-4 in the round-robin head-to-head. Thus, UIC
gets the 4 seed and Green Bay gets the 7 seed.
Milwaukee split with Valpo, they both were swept by
#1 Butler, but Milwaukee split with #2 CSU while
Valpo was swept by them, so Milwaukee gets the 5 seed
and Valpo gets the 6 seed.
Loyola gets the 8 seed.
If instead, Wright State beats Valpo to finish 13-5, they secure the 2 seed, and CSU ends up with the 3 seed.
Valpo finishes 8-10.
1. Milwaukee beats UIC to finish 10-8 and get the 4 seed
UIC finishes 8-10
a. 5th place is 9-9
Green Bay is the only team left that can finish 9-9
by beating Loyola on Saturday. This gives them the
5 seed.
UIC and Valpo would tie at 8-10. In this case the
tie is still broken by Wright State in Valpo's
favor because UIC was swept by Wright State while
Valpo will have split with them. Valpo gets the 6
seed and UIC the 7 seed.
Loyola finishes 6-12. If YSU beats CSU, they tie
with Loyola. The two teams split, they were both
swept by #1 Butler and #2 Wright State, they both
split with #3 CSU, but Loyola split with #4
Milwaukee while YSU was swept by them, so Loyola
wins the tiebreaker and gets the 8 seed, and YSU
gets the 9 seed.
b. 5th place is 8-10
This means that Green Bay loses to Loyola, who
finishes 7-11 and gets the 8 seed. YSU gets the
9 seed.
UIC, Valpo, and Green Bay are in a 3-way tie for
5th. They each split with the other 2, they all
were swept by #1 Butler, but while Valpo and
Green Bay will have split with #2 Wright State,
UIC was swept by them and drops out to get the
7 seed.
The remaining tie falls to #3 CSU who favors
Green Bay (1-1) over Valpo (0-2), so Green Bay
gets the 5 seed, and Valpo gets the 6 seed.
2. Milwaukee loses to UIC so that both finish 9-9
Green Bay can also finish 9-9 by beating Loyola.
a. Milwaukee, UIC, and Green Bay finish 9-9
Valpo finishes 8-10 and gets the 7 seed.
Loyola finishes 6-12.
Milwaukee is 2-2, UIC 3-1, and Green Bay 1-3
in the round-robin head-to-head, so UIC gets
the 4 seed, Milwaukee the 5 seed, and Green
Bay the 6 seed.
If YSU beats CSU, the tiebreaker falls to #4
UIC, who swept Loyola while splitting with YSU
so YSU gets the 8 seed and Loyola gets the 9
seed.
If YSU loses to CSU, Loyola gets the 8 seed
and YSU gets the 9 seed.
b. Milwaukee and UIC alone are tied at 9-9
(Green Bay loses to Loyola)
UIC swept Milwaukee, so once again, UIC gets
the 4 seed and Milwaukee gets the 5 seed.
Valpo and Green Bay tie at 8-10. The tiebreaker
falls to #3 CSU, who favors Green Bay, as has
been shown above, so Green Bay gets the 6 seed
and Valpo the 7 seed.
Loyola finishes 7-11 and gets the 8 seed, and
YSU gets the 9 seed.
Finally, if Wright State goes 12-6 and YSU beats CSU, Wright State still secures the 2 seed, and CSU ends up with the 3 seed.
In this case, Valpo finishes 9-9 and YSU finishes 6-12.
1. Milwaukee beats UIC to finish 10-8 and get the 4 seed
UIC finishes 8-10
5th place has to be 9-9 because Valpo is 9-9 in this
scenario. Green Bay can also finish 9-9 by beating
Loyola on Saturday.
a. Valpo alone is 9-9 and gets the 5 seed
UIC and Green Bay would tie at 8-10. As shown
above, Green Bay wins this tiebreaker because
they split with #2 Wright State, while UIC was
swept by them, so Green Bay gets the 6 seed, and
UIC the 7 seed.
Loyola finishes 7-11 and gets the 8 seed, while
YSU gets the 9 seed.
b. Valpo and Green Bay tie at 9-9
In this case, Valpo wins the tiebreaker because
they will have swept Wright State while Green
Bay split with them. Valpo gets the 5 seed,
Green Bay the 6 seed.
UIC finishes 8-10 and gets the 7 seed.
Loyola finishes tied with YSU at 6-12, but as
shown above, they win the tiebreaker and get the
8 seed, while YSU gets the 9 seed.
2. Milwaukee loses to UIC so that both finish 9-9
Green Bay can also finish 9-9 by beating Loyola.
a. Milwaukee, UIC, Valpo, and Green Bay finish
9-9
Milwaukee is 3-3, UIC 4-2, Valpo 3-3, and
Green Bay 2-4 in the round-robin head-to-
head, so UIC gets the 4 seed, and Green
Bay the 7 seed.
Again, Valpo wins the tiebreaker with
Milwaukee via Wright State and gets the 5
seed, and Milwaukee gets the 6 seed.
Loyola ties with YSU at 6-12. As seen
above, UIC breaks this tie in favor of YSU,
who gets the 8 seed while Loyola gets the 9
seed.
b. Milwaukee, UIC, and Valpo alone are tied at 9-9
(Green Bay loses to Loyola)
UIC is 3-1, Valpo 2-2, and Milwaukee 1-3 in the
round-robin head-to-head, so once again, UIC gets
the 4 seed, Valpo the 5 seed, and Milwaukee the
6 seed.
Green Bay finishes 8-10 and gets the 7 seed.
Loyola finishes 7-11 and gets the 8 seed. YSU
gets the 9 seed.
OK! That was a bit easier. A few complications were eliminated tonight.
Thanks to WAJC69 from the Butler board for providing the Official Tie Breaker Rules
Thanks to uwmfansince1997 from the Milwaukee board for providing a link to the Horizon League's official "Track the Bracket" page.
2 comments:
Speaking of Mark Lazerus, over at "Off the Mark", well, OK... Don't shoot the messenger.
Anyhow, he says that the Horizon league has sent out bracket scenarios - but, at least one of them seems wrong!
"If VU, YSU, UIC, UWGB all win Saturday, VU is the No. 4 seed and will host YSU."
I'm with you, Jim. UIC takes 4th in that scenario.
Valpo themselves claims that 4th is still a possibility, in their game notes for tomorrow's game. Perhaps relying on the same League figures.
Seems like the (slim) Valpo 4th seed scenarios sailed with Milwaukee's win.
Anyhow, never a dull moment in this league!
Haha, and I thought the league would surely be more reliable than I am;-)
Yeah, I looked again and Milwaukee's win last night sunk any chance of a 4 seeed for Valpo.
Thanks for the heads up!
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