Valparaiso 71 Butler 59
Seed Team Conf 1st round matchup
(* means clinched)
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#1 Valparaiso 14-4 Double-bye*; Host*
#2 Cleveland State 11-6 Double-bye
#3 Butler 11-7 Would host #10 Loyola
#4 Youngstown State 10-7 Would host #9 UIC
#5 Detroit 10-7 Would host #8 Wright State
#6 Milwaukee 10-7 Would host #7 Green Bay
#7 Green Bay 9-8*
#8 Wright State 7-10*
#9 UIC 3-14*
#10 Loyola 1-16*
CSU has WSU left.
YSU has Detroit left.
Detroit has YSU left.
Milwaukee has Loyola left.
Valpo swept CSU, is 1-1 against YSU, swept Butler, split with Milwaukee, and swept Detroit.
CSU split with YSU, Butler, and Milwaukee, and swept Detroit.
YSU is 1-0 against Detroit, swept Milwaukee, was swept by Butler.
Detroit swept Butler, split with Milwaukee
Butler split with Milwaukee.
Valpo - Won: Detroit, CSU, Butler, UIC, Loyola; Lost: none
CSU - Won: UIC, Loyola, Detroit; Advantage: WSU; Disadvantage: none; Lost: Valpo
Butler - Won: Loyola, WSU, YSU, UIC; Lost: Detroit, Valpo
Detroit - Won: Butler, Loyola, Green Bay, WSU; Advantage: none; Disadvantage: YSU; Lost: Valpo, CSU
YSU - Won: Loyola, Milwaukee; Advantage: Detroit; Disadvantage: none; Lost: Butler
Milwaukee - Won: Green Bay, UIC; Advantage: Loyola; Disadvantage: none; Lost: YSU
Valpo has secured the 1 seed, WSU the 8 seed, UIC the 9 seed, and Loyola the 10 seed.
With last night's loss, Butler must hope for both CSU and Detroit to lose in order to get the 2 seed. If either one of those two things fails to happen, CSU gets the 2 seed. If CSU wins they win it outright as the only remaining team with 12 wins. But even if they lose and Detroit wins, Detroit's sweep of Butler spells disaster for the Bulldogs in the tiebreaker.
Detroit can secure the 3 seed if they beat YSU and either CSU wins OR both WSU and Loyola win. If CSU wins, Detroit would be tied with Butler and possibly Milwaukee, and would win either tiebreaker because of their sweep of Butler (Milwaukee split with both teams). If CSU loses, then the Milwaukee-Loyola game matters. If Milwaukee wins that game, CSU, Butler, Detroit, and Milwaukee all tie for 2nd at 11-7. CSU wins the 2 seed with their 4-2 record, Butler settles for the 5 seed with their 2-4 record, and Detroit remains tied with Milwaukee at 3-3. Since Milwaukee is the only one to have beaten Valpo, they would get the 3 seed and Detroit would have to settle for the 4 seed. However, if Milwaukee loses, then it's just CSU, Detroit, and Butler. CSU (3-1) is the 2 seed, Detroit (2-2) is the 3 seed, and Butler (1-3) is the 4 seed.
Butler can secure the 3 seed if CSU and YSU both win. This puts Butler, YSU, and possibly Milwaukee tied for 3rd at 11-7. Butler wins either tiebreaker since they swept YSU and split with Milwaukee and YSU swept Milwaukee.
If WSU, YSU, and Loyola all win (giving Butler the 2 seed), CSU is the 3 seed. Butler, CSU, and YSU will all be 11-7 (Detroit and Milwaukee 10-8), and Butler wins the 2 seed with a 3-1 record, CSU gets the 3 seed with a 2-2 record, and YSU falls to the 4 seed with a 1-3 record. As shown above, if CSU wins or Detroit beats YSU, CSU gets the 2 seed. If Milwaukee beats Loyola, then they make it a 4-way tie. Butler still wins the 2 seed with a 4-2 record, Milwaukee gets the 5 seed with a 2-4 record, and YSU remains tied with CSU at 3-3, and that tie favors YSU because they split with Valpo while CSU was swept by Valpo, dropping CSU to the 4 seed. That is why it is important for all 3 things listed at the beginning of this paragraph to occur.
If WSU, Detroit, and Milwaukee all win (giving CSU the 2 seed), Milwaukee is the 3 seed because CSU, Milwaukee, Detroit, and Butler all will be tied at 11-7. CSU wins the 2 seed with a 4-2 record and Butler gets the 5 seed with a 2-4 record, leaving Milwaukee and Detroit tied at 3-3. Milwaukee wins that tiebreaker since they split with Detorit and they split with Valpo while Detroit was swept by Valpo, giving Milwaukee the 3 seed. If CSU beats WSU, Detroit wins the 3-way tie with a 3-1 record, leaving Milwaukee as the 4 seed. If YSU beats Detroit, YSU wins the tiebreaker with a 3-1 record (they swept Milwaukee) so they would get the 3 seed (Butler gets the 2 seed). Obviously Milwaukee needs to win themselves to have any shot at the 3 seed.
If WSU, YSU, and Milwaukee all win (giving Butler the 2 seed), YSU is the 3 seed because CSU, Milwaukee, Butler, and YSU all will be tied at 11-7. Butler wins the 2 seed with a 4-2 record and Milwaukee gets the 5 seed with a 2-4 record, leaving CSU and YSU tied at 3-3. They split with each other, and YSU wins the tiebreaker because they split with Valpo while CSU was swept by Valpo, giving YSU the 3 seed. If CSU beats WSU, Butler gets the 3 seed with a 3-1 record (Milwaukee 1-3 is the 5 seed, YSU 2-2 is the 4 seed). If Loyola beats Milwaukee, Butler wins the 2 seed with a 3-1 record, CSU gets the 3 seed with a 2-2 record, and YSU falls to the 4 seed with a 1-3 record. Obviously YSU needs to beat Detroit in order to have a shot at the 3 seed.
Butler secures the 4 seed if Loyola beats Milwaukee and Detroit beats YSU because only CSU (2 seed) and Detroit (3 seed) finish 11-7 or better.
CSU secures the 4 seed if WSU, YSU, and Milwaukee all win because Milwaukee is the big loser in the 4-way tie (Butler 4-2 for 2 seed, YSU 3-3 for 3 seed).
Detroit secures the 4 seed if WSU, Detroit, and Milwaukee all win because Butler is the big loser in the 4-way tie (CSU 4-2 for 2 seed, Milwaukee 3-3 for 3 seed).
Milwaukee secures the 4 seed if CSU, Detroit, and Milwaukee all win because Butler is the big loser in the 3-way tie (Detroit 3-1 for the 3 seed; CSU 2 seed with 12-6 overall).
YSU secures the 4 seed if YSU and CSU both win OR if YSU, WSU, and Loyola all win. In the first case, CSU gets the 2 seed at 12-6, Butler wins the tiebreaker with YSU for the 3 seed (Milwaukee would lose a 3-way tie for the 5 seed), leaving YSU with the 4 seed. In the second case, YSU gets the 4 seed because only Butler and CSU finish with 11 wins.
Butler gets the 5 seed if Detroit and Milwaukee both win because only CSU, Milwaukee, and Detroit also finish with 11 wins and Butler loses that tiebreaker. They get the 5 seed because both YSU and Green Bay finish at 10-8 tied for 6th.
Milwaukee gets the 5 seed if YSU wins because if they win they finish ahead of Detroit and Green Bay and lose the 4-way tie for 2nd and the 3-way tie for 3rd. If they lose, they win a 3-way tie with Green Bay (Green Bay loses this tiebreaker because they were swept by both; Milwaukee split with Detroit but also split with Valpo while Detroit was swept by Valpo).
YSU gets the 5 seed if Detroit beats them and Loyola beats Milwaukee. CSU wins the 3-way tie with Butler and Detroit (or wins 2 seed outright if they beat WSU), Detroit beats Butler for the 3 seed giving Butler the 4 seed, and YSU wins the tie with Milwaukee because they swept them. If Milwaukee beats Loyola, then they would finish ahead of YSU and push them down to 6th.
Detroit falls to the 6 seed if they lose to YSU because they win a tiebreaker with Green Bay with their sweep of the Phoenix, but they lose a tiebreaker with Milwaukee because they were swept by Valpo.
Milwaukee falls to the 6 seed if they lose to Loyola and Detroit beats YSU because they lose the 2-way tie with YSU and they finish in the middle of the 3-way tie with Green Bay and YSU.
Last night's win by Valpo sealed Green Bay into the 7th seed because they lose a 3-way tie with Milwaukee and Detroit (0-4) and they lose a 3-way tie with Milwaukee and YSU (1-3 to Milwaukee's 2-2 and YSU's 3-1). In all other cases, 6 teams finish with 11 or more wins. WSU is locked into the 8th seed because they are 2 games behind Green Bay with 1 left to play.
As always, if you see a mistake, by all means let me know and I'll be sure to correct it.