Mind you, this is just for the top 2 seeds. Analysis of the rest of the seeds will most likely begin in earnest after Tuesdays games.
That said, if you're head's not spinning by the time you get through this, you're not tryin'
Scores from 2/14/2012:
Butler 63 Loyola 57
Green Bay 71 Youngstown State 65
Valparaiso 74 UIC 65
Milwaukee 86 Cleveland State 84
Scores from 2/15/2012:
Detroit 71 Wright State 55
Seed Team Conf 1st round matchup
(* means clinched)
---- ---------- ---- -----------------
#1 Valparaiso 12-4 Double-bye*; Host
#2 Cleveland State 10-5 Double-bye
#3 Butler 10-6 Would host #10 Loyola
#4 Detroit 10-6 Would host #9 UIC
#5 Youngstown State 9-7 Would host #7 Green Bay
#6 Milwaukee 9-7 Would host #8 Wright State
#7 Green Bay 7-8
#8 Wright State 7-9
#9 UIC 3-12
#10 Loyola 1-14
Valpo has Loyola and Butler left.
CSU has Green Bay, Detroit, and WSU left.
YSU has WSU and Detroit left.
Detroit has CSU and YSU left.
Butler has UIC and Valpo left.
Milwaukee has UIC and Loyola left.
Valpo swept CSU, is 1-1 against YSU, is 1-0 against Butler, split with Milwaukee, and swept Detroit.
CSU split with YSU, is 1-1 against Butler, is 1-1 against Milwaukee, is 1-0 against Detroit.
YSU is 1-0 against Detroit, swept Milwaukee, was swept by Butler.
Detroit swept Butler, split with Milwaukee
Butler split with Milwaukee.
Tiebreakers:
Valpo - Won: Detroit, CSU, UIC; Advantage: Loyola, Butler; Disadvantage: none; Lost: none
CSU - Won: UIC, Loyola; Advantage: WSU, Detroit, Green Bay; Disadvantage: none; Lost: Valpo
Butler - Won: Loyola, WSU, YSU; Advantage: UIC; Disadvantage: Valpo; Lost: Detroit
Detroit - Won: Butler, Loyola, Green Bay, WSU; Advantage: none; Disadvantage: CSU, YSU; Lost: Valpo
YSU - Won: Loyola, Milwaukee; Advantage: Detroit; Disadvantage: WSU; Lost: Butler
Milwaukee - Won: Green Bay; Advantage: UIC, Loyola; Disadvantage: none; Lost: YSU
Valpo has clinched at least a 2 seed and the coveted double bye. Only CSU, Butler, and Detroit can tie them at 12-6, assuming Valpo loses to Loyola and Butler. Only CSU can pass them by to take first place outright.
First of all, if Valpo beats either Loyola or Butler to finish 13-5, only CSU can tie them and Valpo swept CSU so they would clinch the 1 seed and host the 2nd round and the semifinals. Likewise, if Valpo wins out, they win the regular season title outright since they are the only team left with only 4 losses.
If Valpo loses out:
If CSU finishes first at 13-5 by winning out, then a 3-way tie with Butler and Detroit would favor Valpo directly because of a 3-1 record (Detroit 2-2, Butler 1-3). A tie with only Butler would be broken in Valpo's favor because they swept CSU while Butler only split with them. A tie only with Detroit would favor Valpo because they swept Detroit.
If CSU also finishes 12-6, then as many as 4 teams could tie for 1st: CSU, Valpo, Butler, and Detroit. Obviously if it's just CSU and Valpo, Valpo wins the tiebreaker.
CSU-Valpo-Detroit: Valpo 4-0, CSU 1-3, Detroit 1-3 - Valpo gets the 1 seed, and a tiebreak is necessary to award the 2 seed (because Detroit wins the rematch with CSU)
CSU-Valpo-Butler: Valpo 3-1, Butler 2-2, CSU 1-3 - Valpo and Butler get the double byes
CSU-Valpo-Detroit-Butler: Valpo 5-1, Detroit 3-3, CSU 2-4, Butler 2-4 - Valpo and Detroit get the double byes
If CSU finishes 11-7 or 10-8, then as many as 3 teams can tie for first: Valpo, Butler, and Detroit. Obviously if only one team ties Valpo at 12-6 both get double byes.
Valpo-Butler-Detroit: Valpo 3-1, Detroit 2-2, Butler 1-3 - Valpo and Detroit get the double byes.
Valpo-Detroit: Valpo gets the 1 seed because they swept Detroit
Valpo-Butler: They would split, so it would fall to common opponents. If 3rd place is 11-7, as much as a 4-way tie is possible between CSU, Milwaukee, Detroit, and YSU. CSU and Detroit both favor Valpo (CSU by 1 game, Detroit by 2). YSU favors Butler by 1 game. Milwaukee is neutral. Thus the only way for Butler to get the 1 seed is if Detroit loses out to finish 10-8. If CSU also loses out, YSU or YSU/Milwaukee breaks the tie in Butler's favor. However, if Detroit loses out, one of those losses is to CSU, so CSU has to finish 11-7 in this scenario, and they would cancel out YSU and the tie would fail to be broken. The next common opponent would be at 10-8: Detroit, possibly joined by Green Bay. Green Bay is neutral, having split with both teams, and Detroit breaks the tie in Valpo's favor as shown above. Therefore, Valpo wins this tiebreaker to take the 1 seed and Butler gets the 2 seed.
To summarize, if Valpo wins one more game or if CSU loses one more game, they clinch the 1 seed and host. Otherwise, they get the 2 seed and travel to the host site to play a semifinal game against the 3, 6, 7, or 10 seed after the latter has won on Tuesday and Friday. Furthermore CSU is the only other team with a shot at the 1 seed.
CSU can obviously clinch the 1 seed if they win out and Valpo loses out. If they win out, they clinch at least the 2 seed because everyone else has at least 6 loses.
If they finish 12-6 they obviously clinch a double bye if there's only Valpo ahead of them and nobody tied with them, or if they are tied for first at 12-6 with only Valpo.
A 2-way tie for 2nd with Butler at 12-6 (Valpo at 13-5 or 14-4) would favor Butler because they would split with Valpo while CSU was swept by Valpo. A 2-way tie for 2nd with Detroit would shake out similarly to the 3-way Valpo-CSU-Detroit tiebreaker mentioned above. The remaining 12-6 ties mentioned above deny CSU a double bye.
Valpo would not break this CSU-Detroit tie because they swept both teams. YSU could not finish as high as 11-7 because they would have to lose to Detroit. Butler and/or Milwaukee could finish as high as 11-7. If Butler is alone at 11-7, Detroit wins the tiebreaker because they swept Butler while CSU split Butler.
If Milwaukee is alone at 11-7, the tie remains unbroken because Milwaukee split with both teams, so it would fall to 5th place (10-8). That would be Butler at a minimum. It could also include YSU. Green Bay would have to lose to CSU since CSU has to lose to Detroit, so Green Bay is not an option here even though they only have 8 losses currently.
Butler breaks the tie in Detroit's favor by 1 game (0-2 vs. 1-1). Since both YSU split with each team, they add nothing to the Detroit-CSU tiebreak calculus, even when paired with other team(s).
If CSU finishes 11-7, they would (for starters) need Butler and Detroit to lose at least once more. YSU could join the fun, which would mean Detroit beats CSU and WSU and loses to Green Bay and WSU does no better than 8-10 (beating only CSU), and Milwaukee could also join in.
CSU-Butler-Detroit-YSU-Milwaukee: CSU 4-4, Butler 4-4, Detroit 4-4, YSU 5-3, Milwaukee 3-5, so YSU gets the 2 seed, Milwaukee the 6 seed, and Butler can get the 3 seed if they beat Valpo.
CSU-Butler-Detroit-YSU: CSU 3-3, Butler 3-3, Detroit 3-3, YSU 3-3, so we look to common opponents, and once again Valpo eliminates CSU and Detroit and possibly Butler. If Butler splits with Valpo, they get the 2 seed by virtue of their sweep of YSU. Otherwise YSU ends up with the 2 seed.
CSU-Butler-Detroit-Milwaukee: CSU 3-3 or 4-2, Butler 2-4, Detroit 4-2 or 3-3, Milwaukee 3-3 - The 2 seed goes to the winner of the Detroit-CSU rematch. The loser gets the 4 seed and Milwaukee gets the 3 seed because they split with Valpo. Butler gets the 5 seed.
CSU-Butler-YSU-Milwaukee: CSU 3-3, Butler 4-2, YSU 3-3, Milwaukee 2-4 - Butler gets the 2 seed, Milwaukee the 5 seed, and YSU wins the 3 seed over CSU because they split with Valpo.
CSU-Detroit-YSU-Milwaukee: CSU 3-3, Detroit 2-4, YSU 5-1, Milwaukee 2-4 - YSU gets the 2 seed, CSU the 3 seed, and Milwaukee wins the 4 seed over Detroit because they split with Valpo.
CSU-Butler-Detroit: CSU 2-2 or 3-1, Butler 1-3, Detroit 3-1 or 2-2 - Once again, the 2 seed goes to the winner of the CSU-Detroit rematch. This time, the loser gets the 3 seed and Butler gets the 4 seed.
CSU-Butler-YSU: CSU 2-2, Butler 3-1, YSU 1-3 - Butler gets the 2 seed as before, CSU gets the 3 seed, YSU the 4 seed
CSU-Detroit-YSU: CSU 2-2, Detroit 1-3, YSU 3-1 - YSU gets the 2 seed as before, CSU the 3 seed, Detroit the 4 seed
CSU-Butler-Milwaukee: CSU 2-2, Butler 2-2, Milwaukee 2-2 - common opponent Valpo drops CSU out as the 4 seed. If Butler loses to Valpo, Milwaukee gets the 2 seed because they split with Valpo. If Butler beats Valpo, then we move on to the next common opponent after CSU (who is also neutral). YSU and Detroit have to finish 10-8 (Detroit loses to YSU and CSU). Green Bay could also finish 10-8. YSU/Detroit taken as a unit favor Butler (2-2) over Milwaukee (1-3), so Butler gets the 2 seed and Milwaukee gets the 3 seed. However, if Green Bay is in the mix, they favor Milwaukee (2-0) over CSU (1-1) and Butler (1-1), so in that case, the tie remains unbroken. The next common opponent is WSU at 9-9 (they beat both CSU and YSU). WSU favors Butler because Butler swept them while Milwaukee split with them. So the only way in this scenario Milwaukee gets the 2 seed is if Valpo sweeps Butler.
CSU-Detroit-Milwaukee: CSU 3-1 or 2-2, Detroit 1-3 or 2-2, Milwaukee 2-2 - In this case, if CSU wins the rematch, they get the 2 seed, Milwaukee the 3 seed, and Detroit the 4 seed. However, if Detroit wins the rematch, then we go to common opponent and Valpo breaks the tie in Milwaukee's favor because they're the only ones to beat Valpo. This leaves Detroit and CSU fighting over the 3 and 4 seeds, with neither Valpo nor Milwaukee able to break that tie.
CSU-YSU-Milwaukee: CSU 2-2, YSU 3-1, Milwaukee 1-3 - YSU gets the 2 seed, CSU the 3 seed, and Milwaukee the 4 seed.
CSU-Butler: Butler gets the 2 seed by beating Valpo, otherwise we move to 4th place at 10-8. Once again, Detroit and YSU have to both be 10-8 for the same reason as above. Green Bay can also finish 10-8. In this scenario, Green Bay beats CSU because CSU's 1 win comes against Detroit. YSU favors Butler because they beat CSU and were swept by Butler. Detroit favors CSU because they swept Butler and were swept by CSU. Green Bay is neutral because they will have split with both. YSU/Detroit taken together are 1-3 against CSU and 2-2 against Butler, so CSU gets the 2 seed and Butler gets the 3 seed.
CSU-Detroit: If CSU wins the rematch, they get the 2 seed and Detroit gets the 3 seed. If Detroit wins the rematch, they split. Valpo swept both, so we have to look at 4th place at 10-8. Butler and YSU both have to be 10-8 (YSU beats Detroit because Detroit beats CSU). Milwaukee and Green Bay can also finish 10-8. Milwaukee is neutral, but Green Bay favors Detroit because they were swept by Detroit while they will have split with CSU. Butler favors Detroit by 1 while YSU favors CSU by 1, so taken together they are neutral. Hence Green Bay is the deciding factor if they win out, giving the 2 seed to Detroit. Even if they don't, WSU is the only other team that finish higher than Green Bay, and WSU is either neutral (if they lose to CSU) or they favor Detroit (if they beat CSU). Hence, either way, Detroit gets the 2 seed.
CSU-YSU: They split with each other, but YSU split with Valpo while CSU was swept by Valpo, so YSU gets the 2 seed and CSU gets the 3 seed.
CSU-Milwaukee: They split with each other, but Milwaukee split with Valpo while CSU was swept by Valpo, so Milwaukee gets the 2 seed and CSU gets the 3 seed.
If CSU loses out, one of those losses comes at the hands of Detroit, which makes Detroit at least 11-7. Therefore, CSU cannot get the double bye if they lose out.
Thus, CSU can only clinch the 2 seed and the double bye by winning out, OR by winning 2 of 3 as long as Butler and Detroit each lose at least once more, OR by winning 1 of 3 as long as Butler, Detroit, and YSU each lose at least once more.
Butler can get the 2 seed if they win out and CSU and Detroit lose at least once. As shown above, if CSU wins out, Valpo wins a tiebreaker with Butler, and Detroit is tiebreaker kryptonite for Butler.
If Butler finishes 11-7, their chances for the 2 seed are too intricate and complicated to boil down to a few rules, so I'm going to just go primitive here (obviously, 11-7 has to be good enough to tie for 2nd place), drawing from scenarios already explored above:
CSU, Butler, Detroit, and YSU 11-7, Milwaukee 10-8 or 9-9, AND Butler beats Valpo (and loses to UIC): The first 4 are all 3-3 against each other, Valpo eliminates CSU and Detroit, and Butler eliminates YSU by their head-to-head sweep.
CSU, Butler, YSU, and Milwaukee 11-7, Detroit 10-8: Butler's sweep of YSU wins them the 2 seed via the head-to-head tiebreaker. YSU swept Milwaukee but only split with CSU.
CSU, Butler, YSU 11-7, Milwaukee 10-8 or 9-9, Detroit 10-8: again, Butler's sweep of YSU is crucial to winning this tiebreaker, since both they and YSU split with CSU.
CSU, Butler, Milwaukee 11-7, Detroit 10-8, YSU 10-8 (they beat YSU) AND Butler beats Valpo (and loses to UIC): CSU eliminated immediately by Valpo, Butler is 2-2 against Detroit/YSU, Milwaukee is 1-3 against Detroit/YSU. If Green Bay is also 10-8, Butler is 3-3 against Detroit/YSU/Green Bay, Milwaukee is also 3-3 against Detroit/YSU/Green Bay, however, Butler is 2-0 against WSU while Milwaukee split with them.
CSU, Butler 11-7, Milwaukee 10-8 or 9-9, Detroit 10-8, YSU 10-8 AND Butler beats Valpo (and loses to UIC): Butler wins the tiebreaker because of record against Valpo. If they get swept by Valpo, CSU's sweep of Detroit is decisive in denying Butler the 2 seed.
Note: If CSU loses out, Detroit has to be at least 11-7.
Butler, Detroit, YSU 11-7, Milwaukee 10-8 or 9-9, CSU 10-8 AND Butler beats Valpo (and loses to UIC): 2-2 records all around in the head-to-head, Detroit is the only one eliminated by Valpo, then Butler eliminates YSU by virtue of their head-to-head sweep of YSU.
Without the presence of YSU, Detroit immediately eliminates Butler.
Detroit can clinch the 2 seed simply by winning out (beating CSU and YSU). CSU, Butler, and Valpo can all finish 12-6. Detroit would be 1-1 against CSU, 2-0 against Butler, and 0-2 against Valpo. If all three are there, Valpo is the first winner as shown above, so we can pretend Valpo finishes at 13-5 (beating Loyola - of no consequence to this tiebreak scenario). Against the remaining contenders, Detroit is 3-1 and wins against all 3 or just Butler. Tied only with CSU, Butler breaks the tie in their favor (both Milwaukee and YSU are neutral, and Green Bay can't win 10 because after losing to Detroit, CSU has to beat Green Bay and WSU to reach 12 wins.
Detroit can also clinch the 2 seed if they beat CSU and lose to YSU AND Butler loses out AND CSU only wins once more at most AND Milwaukee only wins once more at most AND WSU wins out, beating both CSU and YSU. Butler and YSU have to be 10-8 in this scenario. Green Bay and Milwaukee can join them as well. Butler and YSU taken together are neutral toward a CSU-Detroit tie at 11-7. Milwaukee is also neutral. However, if Green Bay beats CSU, they favor Detroit (who swept them). If Green Bay loses to CSU they also are neutral. WSU was swept by Detroit, but if Green Bay loses to CSU then WSU beats CSU, handing the tiebreaker to Detroit.
Milwaukee can clinch the 2 seed if they win out AND CSU loses at least 2 of 3 (including to Detroit) AND Butler loses out AND Detroit loses to YSU AND YSU loses to WSU. Detroit is not neutral on Milwaukee-CSU unless they beat CSU this coming week. Butler also at 11-7 would favor Detroit over Milwaukee, and YSU would kill Milwaukee in the tiebreaker head-on.
YSU can clinch the 2 seed if they win out AND CSU loses at least 2 of 3 AND Butler loses out. Butler ruins most tiebreakers for YSU because of their sweep, but Milwaukee and Detroit do not stand in their way because they will have swept both of them.
Green Bay cannot get the double bye. Even if they tie with CSU, Detroit, and YSU at 10-8, with Butler losing out (9-9), Butler would end up breaking the tie in favor of Detroit.
As always, if you see a mistake, by all means let me know and I'll be sure to correct it.
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