Once again, the "1st round matchup below" is what it would be if the HL tourney were held tomorrow.
Scores from 2/9/2012:
Valparaiso 59 Cleveland State 41
Butler 68 Youngstown State 59
Scores from 2/10/2012:
Detroit 58 Milwaukee 57
Green Bay 53 Wright State 48
Seed Team Conf 1st round matchup
---- ---------- ---- -----------------
#1 Valparaiso 11-3 Double-bye; Host
#2 Cleveland State 10-3 Double-bye
#3 Youngstown State 8-6 Would host #10 Loyola
#4 Detroit 8-6 Would host #9 UIC
#5 Butler 8-6 Would host #8 Wright State
#6 Milwaukee 8-6 Would host #7 Green Bay
#7 Green Bay 6-7
#8 Wright State 6-8
#9 UIC 3-10
#10 Loyola 0-13
A question was raised on Twitter that perhaps Valpo needs only one more win to clinch a double bye (at least a 2 seed). Obviously if Valpo wins 2 more games, they definitely clinch the double bye. However:
Valpo has YSU, UIC, Loyola, and Butler left.
CSU has Butler, Milwaukee, Green Bay, Detroit, and WSU left.
YSU has Valpo, Green Bay, WSU, Detroit
Detroit has Green Bay, WSU, CSU, and YSU left
Butler has CSU, Loyola, UIC, and Valpo left
Milwaukee has WSU, CSU, UIC, and Loyola left
Valpo swept CSU, is 1-0 against YSU, is 1-0 against Butler, split with Milwaukee, and swept Detroit.
CSU split with YSU, is 1-0 against Butler, is 1-0 against Milwaukee, is 1-0 against Detroit.
YSU is 1-0 against Detroit, swept Milwaukee, was swept by Butler.
Detroit swept Butler, split with Milwaukee
Butler split with Milwaukee.
Note: Only 1 of Detroit and YSU can finish 12-6 because they play each other.
If CSU finishes first (at 15-3, 14-4, or 13-5), then Valpo needs to avoid a 3-way tie with Butler and YSU at 12-6 because Butler wins the head-to-head tiebreaker with a 3-1 record (Valpo 2-2, YSU 1-3). They also need to avoid a 3-way tie with YSU and Milwaukee because YSU wins the head-to-head tiebreaker with a 3-1 record (Valpo 2-2, Milwaukee 1-3). They also need to avoid a 4-way tie with YSU, Butler, and Milwaukee because Butler wins the head-to-head tiebreaker with a 4-2 record (Valpo 3-3, YSU 3-3, Milwaukee 2-4).
Note: with CSU at least 13-5, Butler, Detroit, and Milwaukee can't all join Valpo at 12-6, though Butler, YSU, and Milwaukee can.
A 3-way tie with Butler and Milwaukee would favor Valpo because the 3 teams split with each other, but only Valpo swept CSU. A 3-way tie with Butler and Detroit would favor Valpo directly because of a 3-1 record (Detroit 2-2, Butler 1-3). A 3-way tie with Detroit and Milwaukee would favor Valpo directly because of a 3-1 record (Milwaukee 2-2, Detroit 1-3).
If CSU also finishes 12-6, then as many as 5 teams could tie for 1st: CSU, Valpo, Milwaukee, Butler, and either YSU or Detroit. Obviously if it's just CSU and Valpo, Valpo wins the tiebreaker.
CSU-Valpo-YSU: Valpo 3-1, YSU 2-2, CSU 1-3 - Valpo and YSU get the double-byes
CSU-Valpo-Detroit: Valpo 4-0, CSU 1-3 or 2-2, Detroit 1-3 or 0-4 - Valpo and the winner of the CSU-Detroit rematch (and tiebreaker if necessary) get the double byes
CSU-Valpo-Butler: Valpo 3-1, Butler 2-2, CSU 1-3 (Butler beats CSU in the rematch) - Valpo and Butler get the double byes
CSU-Valpo-Milwaukee: Valpo 3-1, CSU 1-3 or 2-2, Milwaukee 2-2 or 1-3 - Valpo and the winner of the CSU-Milwaukee rematch get the double byes
CSU-Valpo-YSU-Butler: Valpo 4-2, Butler 4-2, YSU 2-4, CSU 2-4 - Valpo and Butler get the double byes
CSU-Valpo-YSU-Milwaukee: Valpo 4-2, YSU 4-2, CSU 2-4, Milwaukee 2-4 - Valpo and YSU get the double byes
CSU-Valpo-Detroit-Butler: Valpo 5-1, Detroit 3-3, CSU 2-4, Butler 2-4 - Valpo and Detroit get the double byes
CSU-Valpo-Detroit-Milwaukee: Valpo 5-1, Milwaukee 3-3, Detroit 2-4, CSU 2-4 - Valpo and Milwaukee get the double byes
CSU-Valpo-Butler-Milwaukee: Valpo 4-2, Butler 3-3, Milwaukee 3-3, CSU 2-4 - Valpo and either Butler or Milwaukee get the double byes
CSU-Valpo-YSU-Butler-Milwaukee: Valpo 5-3, Butler 5-3, YSU 4-4, CSU 3-5, Milwaukee 3-5 - Valpo and Butler get the double byes
CSU-Valpo-Detroit-Butler-Milwaukee: Valpo 6-2, Detroit 4-4, Milwaukee 4-4, CSU 3-5, Butler 3-5 - Valpo and either Detroit or Milwaukee get the double byes
If CSU finishes 11-7 or 10-8, then as many as 3 teams can tie for first: Valpo, Milwaukee, Butler, and either YSU or Detroit. Obviously if only one team ties Valpo at 12-6 both get double byes.
Valpo-Milwaukee-Butler: Here each is 2-2 in head to head, so it would depend on each's record against common opponents, beginning with 4th place. Valpo wins the tiebreaker if it's Detroit. Butler wins if it is YSU, but Valpo would still get the 2 seed. Valpo wins if it is CSU. Milwaukee wins if it is Green Bay because they alone swept Green Bay. Valpo would have to then win the tiebreaker with Butler to get the 2 seed. If WSU is the 4th place team, Butler and Milwaukee would get the double byes because they both will have swept WSU while Valpo split with them. I'll leave the 4th place tie possibilities alone for now.
Valpo-Milwaukee-YSU: Here YSU gets the 1 seed with a 3-1 record, Valpo gets the 2 seed with a 2-2 record, and Milwaukee gets the 3 seed with a 1-3 record.
Valpo-Milwaukee-Detroit: Valpo 3-1, Milwaukee 2-2, Detroit 1-3 - Valpo and Milwaukee get the double byes.
Valpo-Butler-YSU: Butler 3-1, Valpo 2-2, YSU 1-3 - Butler and Valpo get the double byes.
Valpo-Butler-Detroit: Valpo 3-1, Detroit 2-2, Butler 1-3 - Valpo and Detroit get the double byes.
Valpo-Milwaukee-Butler-YSU: Butler 4-2, Valpo 3-3, Milwaukee 3-3, YSU 2-4 - Butler and either Valpo or Milwaukee get the double byes. Milwaukee swept Green Bay while Valpo swept CSU, so it's likely Valpo would win this tiebreaker, though not absolutely certain.
Valpo-Milwaukee-Butler-Detroit: Valpo 4-2, Milwaukee 3-3, Detroit 3-3, Butler 2-4 - Valpo and either Milwaukee or Detroit would get the double byes. Which one gets the 2 seed depends on the Detroit-Green Bay, Milwaukee-Wright State, Detroit-Wright State, and Milwaukee-UIC rematches.
To summarize, if Valpo finishes 13-5 they clinch a double bye. If they finish 12-6, they clinch a double bye unless:
1. CSU finishes 13-5 or better AND YSU wins out OR
2. CSU finishes 10-8 or 11-7 AND Milwaukee AND Butler OR Milwaukee AND Butler AND YSU win out and Valpo loses the tiebreaker.
As always, if you see a mistake, by all means let me know and I'll be sure to correct it.