Sunday, February 12, 2012

Men's Race for the Double Byes -- 2/12/2012

A note on my previous post: While it was not correct to say that one more win clinches the double bye for Valpo, it is true that it clinches the double bye for Valpo if that one more win came against YSU. Of course, that didn't happen...

Once again, the "1st round matchup below" is what it would be if the HL tourney were held tomorrow.

Scores from 2/11/2012:

Butler 52 Cleveland State 49
Loyola 78 UIC 69
Youngstown State 71 Valparaiso 53

Scores from 2/12/2012:

Detroit 77 Green Bay 74
Wright State 70 Milwaukee 46

Seed Team Conf 1st round matchup
---- ---------- ---- -----------------
#1 Valparaiso 11-4 Double-bye; Host
#2 Cleveland State 10-4 Double-bye
#3 Detroit 9-6 Would host #10 Loyola
#4 Butler 9-6 Would host #9 UIC
#5 Youngstown State 9-6 Would host #8 Wright State
#6 Milwaukee 8-7 Would host #7 Green Bay
#7 Wright State 7-8
#8 Green Bay 6-8
#9 UIC 3-11
#10 Loyola 1-13

Valpo has UIC, Loyola, and Butler left.
CSU has Milwaukee, Green Bay, Detroit, and WSU left.
YSU has Green Bay, WSU, Detroit
Detroit has WSU, CSU, and YSU left
Butler has Loyola, UIC, and Valpo left
Milwaukee has CSU, UIC, and Loyola left

Valpo swept CSU, is 1-1 against YSU, is 1-0 against Butler, split with Milwaukee, and swept Detroit.
CSU split with YSU, is 1-1 against Butler, is 1-0 against Milwaukee, is 1-0 against Detroit.
YSU is 1-0 against Detroit, swept Milwaukee, was swept by Butler.
Detroit swept Butler, split with Milwaukee
Butler split with Milwaukee.


1. Only 1 of Detroit and YSU can finish 12-6 because they play each other.
2. Milwaukee drops out of these 12-6 tie scenarios because of their loss today to WSU.

If CSU finishes first (at 14-4 or 13-5), then Valpo needs to avoid a 3-way tie with Butler and YSU at 12-6 because Butler wins the head-to-head tiebreaker with a 3-1 record (Valpo 2-2, YSU 1-3).

A 3-way tie with Butler and Detroit would favor Valpo directly because of a 3-1 record (Detroit 2-2, Butler 1-3).

If CSU also finishes 12-6, then as many as 4 teams could tie for 1st: CSU, Valpo, Butler, and either YSU or Detroit. Obviously if it's just CSU and Valpo, Valpo wins the tiebreaker.

CSU-Valpo-YSU: Valpo 3-1, YSU 2-2, CSU 1-3 - Valpo and YSU get the double-byes
CSU-Valpo-Detroit: Valpo 4-0, CSU 1-3 or 2-2, Detroit 1-3 or 0-4 - Valpo and the winner of the CSU-Detroit rematch (and tiebreaker if necessary) get the double byes
CSU-Valpo-Butler: Valpo 3-1, Butler 2-2, CSU 1-3 (Butler beats CSU in the rematch) - Valpo and Butler get the double byes
CSU-Valpo-YSU-Butler: Valpo 4-2, Butler 4-2, YSU 2-4, CSU 2-4 - Valpo and Butler get the double byes
CSU-Valpo-Detroit-Butler: Valpo 5-1, Detroit 3-3, CSU 2-4, Butler 2-4 - Valpo and Detroit get the double byes

If CSU finishes 11-7 or 10-8, then as many as 3 teams can tie for first: Valpo, Butler, and either YSU or Detroit. Obviously if only one team ties Valpo at 12-6 both get double byes.

Valpo-Butler-YSU: Butler 3-1, Valpo 2-2, YSU 1-3 - Butler and Valpo get the double byes.

Valpo-Butler-Detroit: Valpo 3-1, Detroit 2-2, Butler 1-3 - Valpo and Detroit get the double byes.

To summarize, if Valpo finishes 13-5 or better, they clinch a double bye. If they finish 12-6, they clinch a double bye unless CSU finishes 13-5 or better AND YSU wins out.

Or to put it another way, Valpo's magic number to clinch the double bye is 2 over YSU.

But let's not make this just about Valpo:

CSU needs a lot of help if they lose out or only win 1 more.

If they finish 12-6 they obviously clinch a double bye if there's only one team ahead of them and nobody tied with them, or if they are tied for first at 12-6 with only one other team. The above analysis suggests that the only 3 or 4-way tie at 12-6 that gives them the double bye is CSU-Valpo-Detroit, depending on the CSU-Detroit rematch: if CSU beats Detroit, that clinches it. If Detroit beats CSU, then a further tie-breaker is needed to settle who gets the 2 seed. Valpo would get the 1 seed and would not break this tie because they swept both teams. YSU could finish as high as 11-7, Butler could finish as high as 11-7, Milwaukee could finish as high as 11-7. So one or more of these teams would be needed to break this tie. If YSU is alone at 11-7, Detroit wins the tiebreaker because they would sweep YSU while CSU split with them. If Butler is alone at 11-7, Detroit again wins the tiebreaker because they swept Butler while CSU was swept by Butler. If Milwaukee is alone at 11-7, the tie remains unbroken because Milwaukee split with both teams, so it would fall to YSU and/or Butler (or YSU, Butler, and WSU if all 3 are 9-9). Since both YSU and Butler individually break the tie in favor of Detroit, both of them together will also break the tie in favor of Detroit, so it is only necessary to consider the 3-way tie. Detroit would be 6-0 against the 3 while CSU would be either 2-4 or 3-3 against the 3, so again Detroit wins the tiebreaker.

In other words, in the CSU-Valpo-Detroit 12-6 3-way tie, the only way CSU gets a double bye is by beating Detroit during the final week of the season. So, CSU clinches a double bye with 2 more wins if one of them is against Detroit AND Butler and YSU lose at least once.

To summarize then, CSU clinches a double bye if the win at least 3 of their remaining 4 (13-5 or 14-4) or if they beat Detroit and one other team and Butler and YSU lose at least one of their remaining games.

Detroit, Butler, and YSU still need plenty of help to snag a double bye, and Milwaukee needs tons of help.

WSU needs maximum help to get a double bye. They would need to win out (10-8), CSU to lose out (10-8), Detroit to lose to YSU (10-8), Butler to lose out (9-9), and YSU to lose to Green Bay (10-8). In the 4-way tie, WSU would be 4-2, CSU would be 3-3, Detroit would be 2-4, and YSU would be 3-3, so WSU would get a double bye. If Green Bay also joins in the fun by beating UIC and Loyola to finish 10-8, WSU would be 4-4, CSU would be 4-4, Detroit would be 4-4, YSU would be 4-4, and Green Bay would be 4-4, and it would then fall to Butler to break the tie -- definitely not in favor of WSU since Butler swept them and got swept by Detroit.

Hence, if WSU wins out, CSU loses out, Detroit loses to YSU, Butler loses out, YSU loses to Green Bay, and Green Bay loses to either Loyola or UIC or both, WSU gets the 2 seed, otherwise they play a first round game.

Green Bay cannot get the double bye. Even if they tie with CSU, Detroit, YSU, and WSU at 10-8, with Butler losing out (9-9), Butler would end up breaking the tie in favor of Detroit.

As always, if you see a mistake, by all means let me know and I'll be sure to correct it.

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