Scores from 2/23/2012:
Youngstown State 61 Wright State 54
Cleveland State 77 Detroit 64
Milwaukee 72 UIC 61
Green Bay 73 Loyola 70 OT
Seed Team Conf 1st round matchup
(* means clinched)
---- ---------- ---- -----------------
#1 Valparaiso 13-4 Double-bye*; Host*
#2 Butler 11-6 Double-bye
#3 Cleveland State 11-6 Would host #10 Loyola
#4 Youngstown State 10-7 Would host #9 UIC
#5 Detroit 10-7 Would host #8 Wright State
#6 Milwaukee 10-7 Would host #7 Green Bay
#7 Green Bay 9-8
#8 Wright State 7-10*
#9 UIC 3-14*
#10 Loyola 1-16*
Valpo has Butler left.
CSU has WSU left.
YSU has Detroit left.
Detroit has YSU left.
Butler has Valpo left.
Milwaukee has Loyola left.
Valpo swept CSU, is 1-1 against YSU, is 1-0 against Butler, split with Milwaukee, and swept Detroit.
CSU split with YSU, Butler, and Milwaukee, and swept Detroit.
YSU is 1-0 against Detroit, swept Milwaukee, was swept by Butler.
Detroit swept Butler, split with Milwaukee
Butler split with Milwaukee.
Valpo - Won: Detroit, CSU, UIC, Loyola; Advantage: Butler; Disadvantage: none; Lost: none
CSU - Won: UIC, Loyola, Detroit; Advantage: WSU; Disadvantage: none; Lost: Valpo
Butler - Won: Loyola, WSU, YSU, UIC; Advantage: none; Disadvantage: Valpo; Lost: Detroit
Detroit - Won: Butler, Loyola, Green Bay, WSU; Advantage: none; Disadvantage: YSU; Lost: Valpo, CSU
YSU - Won: Loyola, Milwaukee; Advantage: Detroit; Disadvantage: none; Lost: Butler
Milwaukee - Won: Green Bay, UIC; Advantage: Loyola; Disadvantage: none; Lost: YSU
Valpo has secured the 1 seed.
After tonight's 4 games, only Butler and CSU have a chance at the 2 seed:
Now that Detroit has lost, Butler can win the 2 seed if they beat Valpo. In this scenario, the only team that can compete with them for the 2 seed is CSU, who can do no better than tie them by winning out, and Butler wins the tiebreaker by virtue of a split with Valpo vs. CSU's 0-2 against Valpo.
Even if Butler loses their final game, they can back in to the 2 seed if Detroit loses to YSU and CSU loses to WSU. This would put CSU, Butler, YSU, and possibly Milwaukee in a tie at 11-7. CSU split with everybody in this group, so they don't affect anything. Butler swept YSU and split with the other teams for a +2. YSU was swept by Butler and split with CSU for a -2, but if Milwaukee is also in the tie, YSU's record is even. Milwaukee was swept by YSU and split with everyone else for a -2. Butler's differential is +2 whether Milwaukee is involved or not, so Butler wins the 2 seed in this scenario as well. Obviously Detroit needs to lose out in any scenario for Butler to get the 2 seed. Furthermore, YSU participating in the tie is also crucial for Butler.
CSU can lock up the 2 seed if Butler loses their final game AND either CSU beats WSU or Detroit beats YSU. Certainly if they win out, they keep Detroit from tying them, so if Valpo beats Butler, then CSU will be the only team at 12-6. However, even if CSU loses to WSU, as long as Butler loses and Detroit beats YSU, CSU gains the upper hand in the tiebreakers because they swept Detroit. Just as YSU is gold for Butler, they are danger for CSU in these ties, which is why CSU needs Detroit to beat YSU if they don't beat WSU.
That's it for the 2 seed.
Jumping ahead a bit, with their OT loss to Milwaukee tonight, Loyola has ceded the 9th seed to UIC and fell to the 10th seed themselves. UIC maintains their 2 game lead with only one game left to play.
Furthermore, WSU is now the 8th seed. They are two games behind Green Bay with only 1 game left.
This leaves seeds 3 through 7 to work out.
Green Bay will get either the 6 seed or the 7 seed. If they lose to Loyola, they will be the 7 seed because there are 6 teams with 10 or more wins and they would be only 9-9.
If Green Bay beats UIC AND Butler beats Valpo AND Milwaukee beats Loyola AND WSU beats CSU AND Detroit beats YSU, Green Bay can get the 6 seed and host a first round game. If CSU beats WSU and YSU beats Detroit, Detroit and/or Milwaukee tie with Green Bay and these are the only two teams who have swept the Phoenix. They need both teams to win to avoid this situation. What they need is to be tied for 6th with YSU, and the only way for that to happen is if Detroit beats YSU and Milwaukee beats Loyola. If this happens, Butler as the 2 seed breaks the tie in favor of Green Bay because they split with the Bulldogs while YSU was swept by them.
Butler, CSU, Detroit, Milwaukee, and YSU are all eligible for the 3 seed and a home game against Loyola in the first round.
Butler is the 3 seed if they lose to Valpo, CSU beats WSU, and YSU beats Detroit. Butler is the 4 seed if they lose to Valpo AND Detroit beats YSU AND Loyola beats Milkwaukee. Butler is the 5 seed if they lose to Valpo, Detroit beats YSU, and Milwaukee beats Loyola. Butler cannot fall further than 5th.
CSU is the 3 seed if Butler is the 2 seed AND CSU beats WSU. Otherwise they are the 4 seed.
Detroit is the 3 seed if they beat YSU and either Butler, WSU, and Loyola win OR Valpo, Green Bay, WSU, and Loyola win OR Valpo, Green Bay, and CSU win OR Valpo, UIC, WSU, and Loyola win OR Valpo, UIC, and CSU win. They are the 4 seed if they beat YSU AND Butler and Loyola win OR Valpo and Milwaukee win. They are the 5 seed if they beat YSU AND Milwaukee beats Loyola AND Butler beats Valpo. They are the 6 seed if they lose to YSU.
Milwaukee is the 3 seed if they beat Loyola AND Valpo beats Butler AND WSU beats CSU AND Detroit beats YSU. They are the 4 seed if they beat Loyola AND Detroit beats YSU AND either Butler beats Valpo OR Valpo beats Butler and CSU beats WSU. They are the 6 seed if they lose to Loyola AND Detroit beats YSU. Otherwise they are the 5 seed.
Finally, YSU is the 3 seed if they beat Detroit AND WSU beats CSU AND either Butler beats Valpo OR Valpo beats Butler and Milwaukee beats Loyola. They are the 5 seed if they lose to Detroit AND Loyola beats Milwaukee. They are the 6 seed if they lose to Detroit AND Milwaukee beats Loyola AND either Valpo beats Butler OR Butler beats Valpo and UIC beats Green Bay. They are the 7 seed if they lose to Detroit AND Butler beats Valpo AND Green Bay beats UIC AND Milwaukee beats Loyola. Otherwise they get the 4 seed.
As always, if you see a mistake, by all means let me know and I'll be sure to correct it.