Thursday, February 23, 2012

Men's Seed Race 2/22/2012

3 more games in the books, 1 seed clinched, scenarios simplify slightly

Scores from 2/21/2012:

Butler 69 UIC 44
Green Bay 71 Cleveland State 67
Valparaiso 66 Loyola 62 OT

Seed Team Conf 1st round matchup
(* means clinched)
---- ---------- ---- -----------------
#1 Valparaiso 13-4 Double-bye*; Host*
#2 Butler 11-6 Double-bye
#3 Detroit 10-6 Would host #10 Loyola
#4 Cleveland State 10-6 Would host #9 UIC
#5 Youngstown State 9-7 Would host #7 Green Bay
#6 Milwaukee 9-7 Would host #8 Wright State
#7 Green Bay 8-8
#8 Wright State 7-9
#9 UIC 3-13
#10 Loyola 1-15

Valpo has Butler left.
CSU has Detroit and WSU left.
YSU has WSU and Detroit left.
Detroit has CSU and YSU left.
Butler has Valpo left.
Milwaukee has UIC and Loyola left.

Valpo swept CSU, is 1-1 against YSU, is 1-0 against Butler, split with Milwaukee, and swept Detroit.
CSU split with YSU, is 1-1 against Butler, is 1-1 against Milwaukee, is 1-0 against Detroit.
YSU is 1-0 against Detroit, swept Milwaukee, was swept by Butler.
Detroit swept Butler, split with Milwaukee
Butler split with Milwaukee.


Valpo - Won: Detroit, CSU, UIC, Loyola; Advantage: Butler; Disadvantage: none; Lost: none
CSU - Won: UIC, Loyola; Advantage: WSU, Detroit; Disadvantage: none; Lost: Valpo
Butler - Won: Loyola, WSU, YSU, UIC; Advantage: none; Disadvantage: Valpo; Lost: Detroit
Detroit - Won: Butler, Loyola, Green Bay, WSU; Advantage: none; Disadvantage: CSU, YSU; Lost: Valpo
YSU - Won: Loyola, Milwaukee; Advantage: Detroit; Disadvantage: WSU; Lost: Butler
Milwaukee - Won: Green Bay; Advantage: UIC, Loyola; Disadvantage: none; Lost: YSU

Tiebreakers are no longer needed for the 1 seed as no one can reach 13 wins to tie Valpo, so the 2nd and 3rd rounds will be held at the ARC this year, with Valpo playing the late game on Saturday after a week's rest.

Butler, YSU, Milwaukee, CSU, and Detroit all have a chance at the 2 seed:

Butler can win the 2 seed if they beat Valpo AND Detroit loses at least once. In this scenario, the only team that can compete with them for the 2 seed is CSU, who can do no better than tie them by winning out, and Butler wins the tiebreaker by virtue of a split with Valpo vs. CSU's 0-2 against Valpo. If Detroit wins out, that includes a win over CSU, so it would just be Detroit tied with Butler, and Detroit prevails because of their sweep of Butler.

Even if Butler loses their final game, they can back in to the 2 seed if Detroit loses to both CSU and YSU, CSU loses to WSU, and YSU beats WSU. This would put CSU, Butler, YSU, and possibly Milwaukee in a tie at 11-7. CSU split with everybody in this group, so they don't affect anything. Butler swept YSU and split with the other teams for a +2. YSU was swept by Butler and split with CSU for a -2, but if Milwaukee is also in the tie, YSU's record is even. Milwaukee was swept by YSU and split with everyone else for a -2. Butler's differential is +2 whether Milwaukee is involved or not, so Butler wins the 2 seed in this scenario as well. Obviously Detroit needs to lose out in any scenario for Butler to get the 2 seed. Furthermore, YSU participating in the tie is also crucial for Butler.

CSU can lock up the 2 seed if they beat Detroit AND Butler loses their final game AND either CSU beats WSU or Detroit beats YSU. Certainly if they win out, they keep Detroit from tying them, so if Valpo beats Butler, then CSU will be the only team at 12-6. However, even if CSU loses to WSU, as long as they beat Detroit and Butler loses, CSU gains the upper hand in the tiebreakers because they will have swept Detroit.

Detroit can secure the 2 seed simply by winning out. The only other team who could tie them at 12-6 would be Butler since one of their 2 wins would come against CSU. Even if Butler beats Valpo, Detroit wins the tiebreaker because of their sweep of Butler.

If Detroit loses to YSU but beats CSU, they can still get the 2 seed if WSU beats YSU and Valpo beats Butler. In this scenario, YSU finishes 10-8, Butler and Detroit finish 11-7. CSU and/or Milwaukee can also finish 11-7. As shown above, Detroit wins the 2-way tie with Butler. CSU and Milwaukee both split with both teams, so they don't change the tiebreaker result. If Detroit loses to CSU but beats YSU, then CSU owns a tiebreak advantage against Detroit that cannot be offset. Needless to say, if Detroit loses out, CSU wins at least 11, so Detroit absolutely has to win at least once this weekend to have a chance at the 2 seed.

YSU can get the 2 seed if they beat both WSU and Detroit AND Valpo beats Butler AND Detroit beats CSU. In this scenario, YSU, Butler, Detroit, and possibly Milwaukee and/or CSU are all 11-7. The 3 way tie is an interlocking chain of sweeps that cancel each other out. Detroit swept Butler, Butler swept YSU, and YSU swept Detroit, so we'd have to resort to common opponents, and of the 3 teams in this scenario, YSU is the only one to win a game against Valpo so they would get the 2 seed. Milwaukee split with Butler and Detroit but was also swept by YSU so their inclusion only further solidifies YSU's grip on the 2 seed. CSU in this case split with everybody so they have no impact. CSU, Butler, and Detroit obviously all need to lose at least once, and it is important to YSU that CSU loses to Detroit so they don't mess up the last tiebreaker just mentioned.

That's it for the 2 seed.

As for the rest of the seeds, action tonight is already half-over and it only gets hairier, so I'm going to wait until later to go further.

As always, if you see a mistake, by all means let me know and I'll be sure to correct it.

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