Friday, February 27, 2009

Women's seed race 2/27/2009

Scores from 2/26/2009:

Butler 74 Milwaukee 71 OT
Green Bay 68 Valparaiso 60
Loyola 70 Youngstown State 52
Cleveland State 83 UIC 73

Seed Team Conf 1st round matchup
---- ---------- ---- -----------------
#1 Green Bay 16-0 Will host winner of #8-#9 game
#2 Butler 12-3 Would host winner of #7-#10 game
#3 Cleveland State 11-4 Would host #6 Milwaukee
#4 Valparaiso 8-7 Would host #5 UIC
#5 UIC 7-8
#6 Wright State 7-8 Would host #10 Youngstown State
#7 Milwaukee 7-9
#8 Detroit 5-10 Would host #9 Loyola
#9 Loyola 3-12
#10 Youngstown State 0-15

With their win over Valparaiso, Green Bay clinched 1st place outright and will have the #1 seed. More importantly, the semifinals and finals will once again be at the Kress Center.

Butler still controls their own destiny. As long as they keep winning the rest of the way, Cleveland State can't catch them. If they do lose one and tie Cleveland State at 14-4, that one loss will have come at the hands of the Vikings who will have split with Butler, meaning the Bulldogs beat Green Bay and would win the tiebreaker since Cleveland State was swept by Green Bay.

If they lose two, Cleveland State can jump into 2nd place by winning out, including a win over Butler, who would then have the 3 seed. If Cleveland State loses once, they tie at 13-5. If that loss came to Butler, Butler will have swept the Vikings and will take the tiebreaker. If that loss comes against Loyola or Valparaiso, then it depends on who wins the Butler-Green Bay game on Saturday. If Butler wins that game, then as described above, they win the tiebreaker. If Butler loses that game, the tiebreaker falls to 4th place. Valparaiso breaks the tie in Cleveland State's favor if the Vikings beat the Crusaders next week. Wright State already breaks the tie in Butler's favor because they split with Cleveland State but were swept by Butler. Milwaukee already breaks the tie in Cleveland State's favor for the same reason. Detroit and UIC were both swept by both teams.

If Butler loses all 3 remaining games to finish 12-6, Cleveland State could do no worse than finish in a tie at 12-6. If that happened, again it means they beat Butler next week, Butler loses to Green Bay on Saturday, and the same possibilities above occur: either Valparaiso, Wright State, or Milwaukee will break the tie.

Cleveland State has clinched a tie for 3rd. Only Valparaiso can tie them, and only if they win out while the Vikings lose out, putting both teams at 11-7. Butler would of course have the 2 seed. Valparaiso will have split with Cleveland State. Both were swept by Green Bay. While Cleveland State will have been swept by Butler, Valparaiso split with them, so the Crusaders would win the tiebreaker and get the 3 seed, with the Vikings having the 4 seed.

Aside from that possibility, Valparaiso controls its own destiny in 4th place. All they have to do is keep winning. UIC and Wright State both lurk one game behind them, and Milwaukee is a game and a half behind. The Crusaders host the Panthers on Saturday, but are already finished with the Flames and the Raiders.

If Valparaiso finishes 10-8, either UIC or Wright State can tie them. They play each other so they both can't finish 10-8. Regardless of which one beats the other next week, both have split with Valparaiso. All 3 have been swept by Green Bay. Only Valparaiso has beaten Butler, so that tiebreaker would favor Valparaiso. On the other hand, if Cleveland State finishes 2nd and sweeps Valparaiso in the process, then Wright State can snatch the 4 seed by beating UIC and tying Valparaiso at 10-8. If UIC beats Wright State and ties Valparaiso at 10-8, and Cleveland State finishes 2nd and sweeps Valparaiso, then the tiebreaker would still fall to Butler and favor Valparaiso. So, if Valparaiso finishes 10-8, the only way they can fall from 4th place is if they lose to Cleveland State next week, Cleveland State finishes 2nd, and Wright State ties them at 10-8.

It starts to get really muddy for awhile after that. Since we still have 3 games to go, I'll save the muddy middle for Sunday.

But we can say that YSU has "clinched" the 10 seed because the best they can do now is tie Loyola, and Loyola has already swept them. Loyola could finish as high as 8th place if they can win out and Detroit loses to Loyola next week while beating only one of Wright State and UIC. The two teams would be tied at 6-12, and Loyola would win the tiebreaker because they will have split with Cleveland State while Detroit was swept by them. Or, if Detroit finishes 5-11, Loyola can get the 8 seed outright by finishing 6-12.

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