Scores from 2/21/2009:
Valparaiso 75 Butler 65
Wright State 68 Youngstown State 51
Cleveland State 60 Detroit 50
Milwaukee 70 UIC 49
Green Bay 88 Loyola 44
Seed Team Conf 1st round matchup
---- ---------- ---- -----------------
#1 Green Bay 15-0 Would host winner of #8-#9 game
#2 Butler 11-3 Would host winner of #7-#10 game
#3 Cleveland State 10-4 Would host #6 Milwaukee
#4 Valparaiso 8-6 Would host #5 UIC
#5 UIC 7-7
#6 Milwaukee 7-8
#7 Wright State 7-8 Would host #10 Youngstown State
#8 Detroit 5-10 Would host #9 Loyola
#9 Loyola 2-12
#10 Youngstown State 0-14
Green Bay has clinched a tie for first. If they lose to Butler, Valparaiso, and Milwaukee, and Butler also beats Milwaukee, Youngstown State and Cleveland State, they both would finish 15-3. They will have split with each other. Cleveland State would have at least 5 losses and Valparaiso would have at least 9 wins. Cleveland State would not break the tie since they would have been swept by both teams. Valparaiso would not break the tie since they would have split with both teams. UIC will not break the tie because they have been swept by both teams. Milwaukee would not break the tie because they would have split with both teams. Wright State will not break the tie because they have been swept by both teams. Detroit will not break the tie because they have been swept by both teams. Loyola will not break the tie because they have been swept by both teams. And Youngstown State would not break the tie because they would have been swept by both teams.
I'm trying to remember, but I think the final tiebreaker is RPI? If that is the case, there is no way to know until it happens.
Of course, all Green Bay needs to do is win one more game or Butler lose one game and they clinch the #1 seed and put us all out of our misery.
Butler can clinch the 2 seed by winning out. If they go 3-1 and Cleveland State wins out, they both finish 14-4. This means Butler's 1 loss comes to Cleveland State, while they defeat Milwaukee, Green Bay, and Youngstown State, while Cleveland State also defeats Valparaiso, UIC, and Loyola. Butler and Cleveland State will have split with each other. In this case, Butler wins the tiebreaker because they split with Green Bay while Cleveland State was swept by Green Bay.
Hence Butler can clinch the 2 seed with 3 more wins for a 14-4 record.
If Butler finishes 13-3, Cleveland State can grab the 2 seed by winning out (including a defeat of Butler). If Cleveland State goes 3-1 to tie them at 13-3, it depends first of all on what happens at the Wolstein Center between these two teams. If Butler wins that clash, they win the tiebreaker by sweeping Cleveland State. If they lose that contest, then it depends on what happens between Butler and Green Bay at Hinkle next week. If Butler wins that contest, Butler wins the tiebreaker for the same reason as above. If Butler loses to Green Bay, then the tiebreaker falls to the 4th place team. This would mean that Butler defeats Milwaukee and Youngstown State, and it would mean that Cleveland State loses to either Valparaiso, UIC, or Loyola. Of the teams who finish at least in a tie for 4th, Valparaiso can break the tie in favor of Cleveland State if the Vikings beat them in the final week of the season, UIC can break the tie in favor of Butler if they beat Cleveland State, Milwaukee already breaks the tie in favor of Cleveland State since they beat Butler and have already been swept by the Vikings, Wright State breaks the tie in favor of Butler because they've been swept by the Bulldogs and have split with the Vikings, and Detroit cannot break the tie because they were swept by both teams. Ties among these 5 teams will complicate the process further.
If Butler finishes 12-6, Cleveland State could grab the 2 seed by winning at least 3 of their remaining 4 games. If they split and finish in a 2-way tie with Butler at 12-6, again it first depends on which team wins their rematch in two weeks. A win by Butler again secures the 2 seed for the Bulldogs, while a win for Cleveland State again shifts our attention to Butler's clash with Green Bay. If Butler wins that one, they secure the 2 seed as explained above, while losing that game moves the tiebreaker to 4th place, with the options explained above.
A 3-way tie between these two teams and Valparaiso is also possible at 12-6. If Butler beats Cleveland State next week, they win the tiebreaker with a 3-1 record, Valparaiso 2-2, and Cleveland State 1-3 taking 2nd, 3rd, and 4th seeds respectively. If they lose to the Vikings next week, then all 3 teams will be 2-2 in head-to-head, and it depends on how Butler does against Green Bay this week. Either way, Cleveland State cannot get the 2 seed in this scenario. If Butler loses to the Nix this week, Valparaiso wins the tiebreaker as the only team of the 3 to beat Green Bay. Butler and Cleveland State would remain tied and the tiebreaker would fall to 5th place, which could be UIC, Milwaukee, Wright State, or Detroit. UIC could break the tie in favor of Butler if they beat the Vikings this week. Milwaukee already breaks such a tie in favor of Cleveland State (Vikings 2-0, Butler 0-1). Wright State already breaks such a tie in favor of Butler (Butler 2-0, Vikings 1-1). Detroit cannot break the tie since they were swept by both teams.
If instead Butler beats Green Bay this week, then Cleveland State would drop out as the 4th seed. Butler can win the remaining tiebreaker by beating the Vikings next week since that would result in a sweep whereas the Crusaders can only split, or if Valparaiso loses to Cleveland State next week. If Butler loses and Valparaiso wins against Cleveland State, the tiebreaker would fall to 5th place. UIC already breaks such a tie in favor of Butler (Butler 2-0, Valparaiso 1-1). Milwaukee would break that tie in favor of Valparaiso (Valparaiso 2-0, Butler 1-1 or 0-2). Wright State breaks it in favor of Butler (Butler 2-0, Valparaiso 1-1). Detroit also breaks it in favor of Butler (Butler 2-0, Valparaiso 1-1).
If Butler loses out to finish 11-7, both Cleveland State and Valparaiso have a chance to move ahead of them, and UIC can tie them at 11-7. Cleveland State can clinch the 2 seed with 3 wins, one of which would be against Butler. If they finish 12-6 and Valparaiso wins out, those two teams could tie for 2nd. They will have split their season series as one of the remaining 2 losses would come against the Crusaders. Since Valparaiso will have split with Green Bay while Cleveland State has already been swept by them, Valparaiso would win the tiebreaker and get the 2 seed. Needless to say, either the Crusaders or the Vikings could finish alone at 12-6 and also have the 2 seed.
A two-way tie between Butler and Cleveland State at 11-7 for 2nd place (implying the lone Viking win comes against Butler) means that Valparaiso and Detroit cannot break the tie, UIC will break the tie in favor of Butler, Milwaukee has already broken such a tie in favor of Cleveland State, and Wright State has already broken such a tie in favor of Butler.
A two-way tie between Butler and Valparaiso at 11-7 for 2nd place would be broken in favor of the Crusaders if they beat Green Bay since Butler will have been swept by the Phoenix (oops, sorry, "The Nix"). If instead they lose to Green Bay (and therefore beat Milwaukee, Cleveland State, and Youngstown State), Cleveland State cannot break the tie, UIC and Wright State both break the tie in favor of Butler because they were swept by the Bulldogs but split with the Crusaders, and Milwaukee breaks the tie in favor of Valparaiso because they beat Butler but will have been swept by Valparaiso.
In the case of a 3-way tie at 11-7 between Butler, Cleveland State, and Valparaiso, Butler would be 1-3, Cleveland State is 3-1 or 2-2, and Valparaiso is 1-3 or 2-2, depending on who wins between Cleveland State and Valparaiso. If the Vikings win, they get the 2 seed and the Crusaders and the Bulldogs fight it out for the 3 seed, with Valparaiso taking it because they would have beaten Green Bay. If the Crusaders beat Cleveland State, then Butler gets the 4 seed and Valparaiso and Cleveland State fight it out for the 2nd seed, and Valparaiso gets it if they beat Green Bay while Cleveland State gets it (by virtue of sweeping Butler) if Valparaiso loses to Green Bay.
I'll go further after tomorrow's schedule is completed:
Green Bay at Valparaiso
Milwaukee at Butler
Cleveland State at UIC
Youngstown State at Loyola