Men's Seed Race 2/18/2009

First of all, I was slow to realize this, but according to Men's Basketball Weekly Release #14, the top 5 teams going into tonight's action have already clinched at least a first round home game, if not a double bye. 5th place Milwaukee is 9-6 and the worst record they can end with is 9-9. The current 7th through 10th place teams already have at least 11 losses, so the worst Milwaukee can finish is 6th.

Scores from 2/18/2009:

Cleveland State 58 Youngstown State 54
Green Bay       76 Valparaiso       61
Milwaukee       63 Butler           60
UIC             77 Wright State     66
Loyola          67 Detroit          41

Seed Team             Conf  Status
---- ----------       ----  ------
#1   Butler           13-3  Clinched at least #2 seed
#2   Green Bay        12-4  Clinched at least #2 seed
#3   Cleveland State  11-5  Clinches 3 seed by beating Butler
#4   Milwaukee        10-6  Clinches at least 4 seed by
                            beating Wright State
#5   Wright State     10-6  Can get 4 seed by winning out
                            or beating Milwaukee if Green
                            Bay finishes first
#6   Youngstown State  7-9  Clinches 6 seed with one more win
#7   UIC               6-11 -+ Winner of this game gets at least
#8   Loyola            6-11 -+ 7 seed
#9   Valparaiso        4-12 Gets 9 seed with one win or one
                            Detroit loss
#10  Detroit           2-14 

After tonight, the top 5 teams have now clinched the top 5 seeds, though not necessarily in the order they currently sit. Youngstown State can now go no higher than 6th since they lost while Milwaukee won.

Butler has now twice missed a chance to clinch a tie for 1st place, but when Milwaukee lost in Ohio recently, that sealed at least a 3 seed for the Bulldogs. Obviously if they beat Cleveland State and Youngstown State at Hinkle next weekend, they will secure the 1 seed, double-bye, and home court in the semifinal round.

If Butler somehow manages to stretch their losing streak to 4, and Cleveland State also beats Valparaiso, they both would be 13-5. Since they would have split their season series, the tiebreaker would fall to common opponents, starting with Green Bay, or Green Bay and either Wright State or Milwaukee. Both split with Green Bay and Milwaukee, but Butler swept Wright State while Cleveland State split with them, so the tiebreaker would always favor Butler.

Hence, we can actually say that Butler has clinched at least the 2 seed, and therefore the double-bye.

If Green Bay ties Butler at either 14-4 or 13-5, the tiebreaker would fall to common opponents because they split with each other. If Butler beats Cleveland State, they would win the tiebreaker because they swept them while Green Bay split with them. Otherwise, it depends on who finishes next. If Wright State is in 4th, Butler wins the tiebreaker, while if Milwaukee finishes 4th, Green Bay wins the tiebreaker because they swept Milwaukee while Butler split with them.

Hence, Green Bay can win the #1 seed and place the semifinals at the Resch Center if they go 2-0 next week and Butler loses to Cleveland State, or if Green Bay goes 1-1 next week and Butler goes 0-2. By the same token, Butler can clinch the 1 seed by beating Cleveland State on Saturday the 28th, or by beating Youngstown State if Wright State beats Milwaukee on Thursday the 26th.

Green Bay clinches at least the #2 seed by going 2-0 next week. If they go 1-1, Cleveland State can tie them at 13-5. Actually, Butler could also end up 13-5 for a 3-way tie. In that case, Butler would be 2-2, Green Bay 2-2, and Cleveland State 2-2. If Milwaukee finishes 4th, Green Bay would grab the 1 seed. If Wright State finishes 4th, Butler would grab the 1 seed. In the former case, the remaining tiebreaker falls to Wright State because Milwaukee split with both Butler and Cleveland State, so Butler would still have the 2 seed. In the latter case, the tiebreaker would fall to Milwaukee because both Green Bay and Cleveland State split with Wright State, so Green Bay would have the 2 seed because they swept Milwaukee. So, in either case, Cleveland State would have the 3 seed.

So, actually, Green Bay can clinch at least the 2 seed by going 1-1 next week.

If Green Bay goes 0-2 next week, Cleveland State could sneak into the 2 seed, while either Wright State or Milwaukee could tie them at 12-6. They both can't because they play each other. If it is Milwaukee, Green Bay wins the tiebreaker. If it is Wright State, Green Bay still wins the tiebreaker because they beat Butler.

If Cleveland State also finishes 12-6, making a 3 way tie, since they split with Green Bay, Milwaukee, and Wright State, the only thing change to the above analysis is that if Wright State is part of the 3-way tie, they would drop out for the 4 seed, while Green Bay and Cleveland State remain tied since they both split with Butler, but still Green Bay prevails because the tiebreaker would fall to Milwaukee.

Hence, Green Bay has already clinched at least the 2 seed, regardless of what happens next week.

Cleveland State can clinch the 3 seed by going 2-0 next week. If they split, either Wright State or Milwaukee could tie them at 12-6. They split with both teams. If they lose to Butler, neither Butler nor Green Bay can break a tie with Wright State, and neither can Milwaukee because they both split with Milwaukee. So, it would depend on who finished 6th. Youngstown State split with Cleveland State but was swept by Wright State. UIC was swept by Cleveland State but split with Wright State. Loyola was swept by both. So either UIC or Youngstown State will break the tie.

If instead they tie with Milwaukee, it depends on who finishes first. If Butler finishes first, Milwaukee wins the tiebreaker, while if Green Bay finishes first, Cleveland State wins the tiebreaker.

If instead Cleveland State beats Butler but loses to Valparaiso, then they win a tiebreaker with Wright State since Butler swept Wright State. They also win the tiebreaker with Milwaukee by splitting with Green Bay.

So Cleveland State clinches the 3 seed by beating Butler on Saturday, regardless of what happens on Thursday.

Either Wright State or Milwaukee can clinch at least the 4 seed by going 2-0 next week. If they tie at 11-7, but Milwaukee beats Wright State, Milwaukee gets the 4 seed by sweeping Wright State. If instead Wright State beats Milwaukee, it depends on who finishes first. If Butler finishes first, Milwaukee wins the tiebreaker. If Green Bay finishes first, Wright State wins the tiebreaker.

Youngstown State needs one win to clinch the 6 seed. If they go 0-2, they tie with the winner of the UIC-Loyola game. Youngstown State swept UIC but split with Loyola. In the former case, Youngstown State would get the 6 seed. In the latter case, Butler would break the tie in favor of Loyola since both teams split with Green Bay. In that event Youngstown State would end up with the 7 seed.

Valparaiso could tie with the loser of the UIC-Loyola game by beating both Cleveland State and Youngstown State. They were swept by UIC, split with Loyola, but even in the latter case they lose the tiebreaker because Loyola split with both Butler and Green Bay while Valparaiso was swept by them.

Hence, Valparaiso can finish no higher than 9th. If they are swept next week and Detroit goes 2-0 next week, the tiebreaker would fall to common opponents since they split with each other. With a win over Green Bay, Detroit would win the tiebreaker and get the 9 seed, leaving Valparaiso in 10th place.