Saturday, February 28, 2009

Men's seed race 2/28/2009 -- Corrected

Tonight I'll just update my analysis from yesterday (with correction prompted by Hack added on 2/28):


Scores from 2/27/2009:

UIC 62 Loyola 58

Seed Team Conf Status
---- ---------- ---- ------
#1 Butler 14-3 Clinched double-bye
#2 Green Bay 13-4 Clinched double-bye
#3 Cleveland State 12-5 Clinches 3 seed by
beating Butler
#4 Wright State 11-6 Can get 4 seed by
beating Green Bay or
if Milwaukee loses to
Detroit
#5 Milwaukee 10-7 Clinched at least 5
seed
#6 Youngstown State 7-10 Hosts UIC
#7 UIC 7-11
#8 Loyola 6-12 Clinchec 8 seed
#9 Valparaiso 4-13 Clinched 9 seed
#10 Detroit 2-15 Clinched 10 seed

Butler won, but so did Green Bay, so the two teams can still finish tied if Green Bay beats Wright State and Cleveland State beats Butler. Both teams would finish 14-4. They have already split with each other, so it would fall to 3rd place, which would be Cleveland State since Green Bay will have beaten Wright State. They both will have split with Cleveland State, so then it would fall to 4th place. If Milwaukee loses to Detroit on Saturday, Wright State finishes 4th. Both teams will have swept Wright State, so it would then fall to Milwaukee. In this case, Green Bay wins the tiebreaker because they swept Milwaukee while Butler only split with them. So Green Bay would get the 1 seed, Butler the 2 seed, and the quarter and semifinals would be held as the Resch Center.

Milwaukee can tie Wright State at 11-7 by beating Detroit on Saturday. In this case, Green Bay would be 4-0 against Milwaukee/Wright State while Butler would be 3-1. Hence, Green Bay would still win the tiebreaker.

To sum it up: Butler wins the 1 seed unless Butler loses and Green Bay wins on Saturday, in which case Butler gets the 2 seed and Green Bay gets the 1 seed.

If Green Bay loses and Cleveland State wins to tie them at 13-5, the two teams split with each other, they both will have split with Butler, and Wright state finishes all alone in 4th place at 12-6. The Raiders will have split with both teams, so it then falls to Milwaukee. Milwaukee split with Cleveland State while they were swept by Green Bay, so Green Bay wins the tiebreaker and the 2 seed.

Therefore, Green Bay has clinched the 2 seed with their win over Detroit tonight.

If Cleveland State loses to Butler and Wright State beats Green Bay on Saturday, both teams finish 12-6. They split with each other. Both will have been swept by Butler. Both have split with Green Bay and Milwaukee. So it falls to either Youngstown State at 8-10 or Youngstown State and UIC at 7-11.

If Youngstown State wins Saturday, Wright State wins the tiebreaker since they swept Youngstown State while Cleveland State split with them.

If Youngstown state loses Saturday, both teams are 3-1 against UIC and Youngstown State, so it would then fall to Loyola. Both teams swept Loyola, so it would then fall to Valparaiso. Both teams swept Valparaiso, so it would finally fall to Detroit (by losing last night to Green Bay, Detroit clinched the 9 seed for Valparaiso). Both teams swept Detroit, so it would then fall to RPI.

To sum up: Cleveland State can clinch at least the 3 seed by beating Butler on Saturday, or if Valparaiso beats Youngstown State and their RPI remains higher than Wright State's. As of 12:46 AM this morning, Cleveland State's RPI was 77 while Wright State's was 111, so that's a fairly safe bet. Otherwise, they fall to 4th and Wright State gets the 3 seed.

If Wright State loses to Green Bay and Milwaukee beats Detroit, both teams finish 11-7. They have now split with each other. However, Milwaukee wins the tiebreaker since both teams will have been swept by Green Bay while only Milwaukee has beaten Butler. So, if Milwaukee wins and Wright State loses, Milwaukee gets the 4 seed and Wright State the 5 seed. Otherwise, Wright State gets the 4 seed and Milwaukee gets the 5 seed.

With Loyola's loss to UIC, Youngstown State has now clinched the 6 seed.

Loyola has clinched the 8 seed.

Valparaiso clinched the 9 seed last night when Detroit lost to Green Bay. In so doing, of course, Detroit clinched the 10 seed.

2 comments:

Hack said...

"Milwaukee can tie Wright State at 11-7 by beating Detroit on Saturday. In this case, both Butler and Green Bay would be 3-1 against Milwaukee and Wright State ...

"To sum it up: Butler wins the 1 seed unless all of the following happens on Saturday: Butler loses to Cleveland State and Green Bay beats Wright State and Milwaukee loses to Detroit. If all of that happens, Butler gets the 2 seed and Green Bay gets the 1 seed."

A Milwaukee win or loss has no relevance in this discussion.

Butler gets the 1 with a win or Green Bay loss. Green Bay gets the 1 with a win and a Butler loss, no matter if Milwaukee wins or loses.

If Milwaukee and Wright State were to end up tied: Green Bay would be 4-0 vs. Milwaukee/Wright State; Butler would be 3-1 vs. Milwaukee/Wright State.

If Wright State were to finish fourth, both Green Bay and Butler would have 2-0 sweeps over the Raiders, kicking the tiebreaker down to Milwaukee.

Green Bay is 2-0 vs. Milwaukee, Butler is 1-1 vs. Milwaukee.

Jim Squire said...

Quite right, good catch.

I'll amend accordingly.