Monday, February 25, 2013

Race for the 4 seed

As we've seen, one scenario out of 256 is up in the air on the 4 seed until March 3rd, when Valpo's RPI can be compared to UDM's to break that tie.

24 out of 256 scenarios have YSU as the 4 seed. In each case, GB, Valpo, and UDM win 10 or more and WSU is tied with YSU at 9-7 (meaning YSU beats Valpo and WSU and WSU loses to UIC). Since this means YSU sweeps WSU, they get the 4 seed and WSU gets the 5 seed.

UDM falls to the 4 seed if all of the following happen (4 out of 256 scenarios):
1. UDM loses to Loyola and UIC
2. WSU beats UIC and YSU
3. GB beats UWM and Valpo
This results in WSU, GB, and Valpo all at 11-5 or better and UDM all alone at 10-6.

WSU falls to the 4 seed in 63 out of 256 scenarios. 32 of those scenarios involve WSU splitting their remaining games to finish 10-6. GB also wins out in these scenarios, but if they didn't, WSU would seed higher than 4. As seen before, they lose a tiebreaker with UDM because of Valpo.

The other 31 scenarios involve WSU losing out and either GB and YSU also finishing 9-7 OR GB winning at least 10 and YSU finishing 8-8. In the former cases, YSU wins the 3-way tie and WSU beats out GB in the remaining 2-way tie. In the latter cases, no tiebreaker is needed.

The remaining 164 scenarios give GB the 4 seed.

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