Monday, February 25, 2013

Race for the 3 seed (single bye)

Believe it or not, YSU can get the 3 seed and the single bye (7 out of 256 scenarios) if all of the following happens:
1.  UWM beats GB
2.  YSU beats Valpo and WSU
3.  Valpo beats GB
4.  UDM loses to either Loyola, UIC, or both OR
    UDM beats both and CSU beats Loyola.
This would give:
         W         L
Valpo   12         4
UDM     10(11)(12) 6(5)(4)
YSU      9         7
WSU      9         7
UWGB     9         7
Obviously in these cases, Valpo is the 1 seed and UDM is the 2 seed (the extra scenario is the flip-side of the RPI scenario where CSU beats Loyola instead of the other way around, breaking the tie for Valpo because UDM split with CSU).

All three 9-7 teams would be 2-2, each sweeping one while being swept by the other. However, YSU would be the only team to sweep 1 seed Valpo, so they would get the 3 seed. That leaves WSU and GB, and WSU would get the 4 seed, leaving GB as the 5 seed.

UDM gets the 3 seed in 44 out of 256 scenarios. 4 of those 44 involve UDM splitting their remaining two games and:
1.  WSU beating UIC and YSU
2.  Valpo beating YSU and losing to GB
As seen here, WSU wins the 2 seed because of their sweep of GB.

The remaining 40 involve UDM losing to both UIC and Loyola and either GB or WSU finishing 11-5 but not both (both finishing 10-6 also works). All three at 10-6 works the same way as just mentioned, with WSU getting the 2 seed and UDM beating out GB for the 3 seed because they split with WSU. If GB is 11-5 and WSU is either 10-6 or 9-7, GB gets the 2 seed and UDM beats out WSU for the 3 seed because they split with Valpo. If GB is 10-6 or 9-7 and WSU is 11-5, UDM beats GB for the 3 seed because UDM split with WSU.

The infamous RPI scenario actually leaves the top 5 seeds hanging until March 3: GB would be 1-1 against both teams; WSU is 0-2 against Valpo, 1-1 against UDM; YSU would be 2-0 against Valpo, 0-2 against UDM. If UDM is the 1 seed, YSU would drop out and be left with the 5 seed, and WSU would beat GB for the 3 seed based on their sweep of GB. If, however, Valpo were the 1 seed (possible but it doesn't seem likely RPI-wise), YSU would actually gain the 3 seed, and again WSU would beat GB for the 4 seed. So, the final seeding could be:
1. UDM
2. Valpo
3. WSU
4. GB
5. YSU
1. Valpo
2. UDM
3. YSU
4. WSU
5. GB
GB gets the 3 seed in 72 out of 256 scenarios. If they win out they get the 3 seed as long as either WSU or UDM wins at least 11, but not both. That's 40 of the 73 scenarios. In other words, if UDM finishes 10-6 and WSU finishes 11-5, GB gets the 3 seed. If UDM finishes 11-5 or 12-6 and WSU finishes 10-6 or 9-7, GB gets the 3 seed at 11-5.

If GB splits their remaining 2 games, they can still get the 3 seed if WSU loses out. The remaining 6 teams would have 9 or less wins, so GB with 10 wins gets the 3 seed.

In the remaining 132 scenarios, WSU gets the 3 seed.

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