W L Valpo 11 3 vs. YSU, at GB UDM 10 4 vs. Loyola, at UIC UWGB 9 5 vs. UWM, vs. Valpo WSU 9 5 at UIC, vs. YSU YSU 7 7 at Valpo, at YSU UIC 6 8 vs. WSU, vs. UDM CSU 5 10 at Loyola Loyola 4 10 at UDM, vs. CSU UWM 3 12 at GBValpo is 1-1 against Detroit, would be 1-1 against GB, and is 2-0 against WSU. Detroit is 1-1 against GB and 1-1 against WSU. WSU is 2-0 against GB.
If Detroit finishes 12-4 and Valpo finishes 11-5 by losing their last two games, WSU and GB are the only teams that can tie Valpo (none can surpass them to tie Detroit). WSU hands the 2 seed to Valpo on a silver platter (0-2 vs. Valpo, 2-0 vs. GB). If WSU finishes 10-6, they take 4th place and still serve as the tiebreaker in favor of Valpo. If WSU finishes 9-7 in a tie with YSU, then we'd have to drop down to 6th place, and in this case, that would be 7-9 UIC (beating WSU, losing to Detroit), who again favors Valpo because UIC split with GB while Valpo swept them.
The overwhelming majority of scenarios where Valpo is the 1 seed have Detroit as the 2 seed, so let's just tackle the others and say that Detroit gets it in all other cases.
In one particular case (already mentioned here), Detroit has the chance for a 1 seed if they have the higher RPI. Obviously if they don't for some reason, then they fall to the 2 seed.
GB can get the 2 seed if (12 out of 256):
1. Detroit loses to both Loyola and UIC 2. GB beats both UWM and Valpo 3. WSU loses to either UIC or YSUThis would give us:
W L Valpo 11(12) 5(4) UWGB 11 5 UDM 10 6 WSU 10(9) 6(7)Again, assuming Valpo loses to YSU, Valpo and GB would split with each other, but Valpo is 3-1 against UDM/WSU while GB is 1-3. If WSU is 9-7, then both Valpo and GB are 1-1 against UDM. Valpo would be 2-2 against WSU/YSU while GB would also be 2-2 against WSU/YSU (Valpo swept WSU while GB swept YSU). Next in line is 8-8 UIC and Valpo is 2-0 against them while GB is 1-1, so either way, that's why Valpo gets the 1 seed.
If either UDM, WSU, or both finishes with 11 wins, GB gets dropped to the 4 seed if Valpo is also 11-5 as shown in the previous post, and if Valpo is 12-4 (beating YSU) they also get dropped to the 4 seed for similar reasons. Basically, WSU kills GB in these tiebreakers. If UDM is also 11-5 but WSU is 10-6 or 9-7, then as we've seen, Valpo, GB, and UDM all split with each other, but if WSU is all alone in 4th (10-6), then GB falls to the 3rd seed because of WSU. If YSU is also 9-7 (tied with WSU), this is one of those cases where UDM gets the 1 seed, but Valpo ekes out the 2 seed from GB ultimately because UIC favors Valpo over GB, so again GB would end up with the 3 seed. So the above 3 things all have to happen for GB to get the 2 seed and the 2nd double-bye.
WSU (36 out of 256):
As hinted above, if Valpo beats YSU and loses to GB (12-4), WSU, UDM, and GB all finish 11-5, WSU wins the tiebreaker for the 2 seed because they are 3-1, UDM 2-2, and GB 1-3. Obviously if UDM finishes 10-6, WSU gets the 2 seed because they swept GB, so as long as UDM loses at least once, Valpo wins once, and GB wins out, WSU gets the 2 seed. However, if GB finishes 10-6 or 9-7, then UDM has to lose out (along with Valpo winning at least once) in order for WSU to get the 2 seed, because if they are just tied with UDM at 11-5, UDM gets the 2 seed because of Valpo.
WSU can also get the 2 seed if they split their remaining games as long as UDM loses out and GB splits their games, thus bringing about a 3-way tie for 2nd at 10-6, which again WSU wins for the same reason as mentioned above.
In all the remaining scenarios (183 out of 256), UDM gets the 2 seed.