Green Bay 61 Butler 54
Cleveland State 63 Wright State 52
Detroit 80 Youngstown State 52
Valparaiso 70 Milwaukee 58
Loyola 67 UIC 64
Seed Team Conf 1st round matchup
---- ---------- ---- -----------------
#1 Green Bay 13-3 Would host winner of #8-#9 game
#2 Detroit 13-4 Would host winner of #7-#10 game
#3 Butler 12-4 Would host #6 Loyola
#4 Cleveland State 10-6 Would host #5 UIC
#5 UIC 9-7
#6 Loyola 8-8
#7 Wright State 6-11 Would host #10 Youngstown State
#8 Milwaukee 5-11 Would host #9 Valparaiso
#9 Valparaiso 5-11
#10 Youngstown State 0-16
Green Bay can clinch the 1 seed by beating CSU and YSU because no one else can reach 15 wins (Detroit has 13 wins but only one game left against WSU; Butler has 12 wins but only 2 games left against UIC and Loyola). Green Bay can also clinch the 1 seed by splitting against CSU and YSU because they win all tiebreakers with Detroit, Butler, or both. Green Bay's record against Detroit is 1-1. Their record against Butler is 2-0. Butler's record against Detroit is 2-0. If they tie only with Butler, they win the head-to-head tiebreaker. If they tie with both Butler and Detroit, their head-to-head record is 3-1, Butler's is 2-2, and Detroit's is 1-3. If Green Bay ties only with Detroit, then we move to common opponents. The first one is either Butler or Butler/CSU (at 12-6). Since both Green Bay and Detroit split with CSU, CSU adds nothing to the tiebreaker situation. Butler alone is the key. Green Bay is 2-0 while Detroit is 0-2, so Green Bay wins the tiebreaker. Therefore, if Green Bay only splits the final weekend, they still clinch the 1 seed. If Green Bay finishes 13-5, they can fall as far as 3rd place, but they can still get the 1 seed if Detroit loses to WSU and Butler splits or is swept in Chicago. The tiebreaker outcome is the same as above.
So if Green Bay is 15-3 or 14-4, they are the 1 seed.
Green Bay 13-3:
1. Detroit 14-4, Butler 14-4
Butler gets the 1 seed because they swept Detroit.
Detroit gets the 2 seed and Green Bay gets the 3
seed.
2. Detroit 14-4, Butler 13-5 or 12-6
Detroit gets the 1 seed. Green Bay gets the 2 seed
because they swept Butler (in case Butler is 13-5).
Butler gets the 3 seed.
3. Detroit is 13-5, Butler is 14-4
Butler gets the 1 seed. Green Bay gets the 2 seed
because they split with Detroit, but they swept
Butler while Detroit was swept by Butler. Detroit
gets the 3 seed.
4. All 3 teams are 13-5
Head-to-head: Green Bay 3-1, Butler 2-2, Detroit 1-3.
Green Bay is the 1 seed, Butler the 2 seed, Detroit
is the 3 seed.
In summary, Green Bay is the 1 seed unless they lose 2 and Detroit wins and/or Butler wins 2. They will be the 2 seed if only 1 of them wins 14, and they will be the 3 seed if they both win 14.
Detroit can still get the 2 seed if either Butler or Green Bay is behind them, otherwise they get the 3 seed.
Butler can be the 1 seed if they win 2 and Green Bay loses 2, regardless of what Detroit does. If they win 2 and Green Bay wins at least 1, they get the 2 seed because they win the tiebreaker against Detroit. They also get the 2 seed if they lose 1 and Detroit loses to WSU. If they lose 1 and Detroit wins, they get the 3 seed since CSU cannot reach 13 wins. Finally, even if they lose 2, they can still get the 3 seed if CSU loses at least 1 or if Detroit gets the 1 seed because they swept Detroit while CSU split with Detroit. If Butler loses 2, CSU wins 2, and Green Bay gets the 1 seed, then Butler falls to the 4 seed because they were swept by Green Bay while one of CSU's 2 remaining wins would come against Green Bay.
In other words, if Butler and CSU tie at 12-6, Detroit breaks the tie in favor of Butler while Green Bay breaks the tie infavor of CSU.
If CSU wins 2 more, they clinch at least the 4 seed. CSU can get the 3 seed if they tie with Butler at 12-6 and Green Bay gets the 1 seed. If they tie at 12-6 but Detroit gets the 1 seed, then CSU gets the 4 seed. If they win 1 more or if they get swept, UIC wins at most 1, and Loyola loses at least 1, they clinch the 4 seed because even if they tie with UIC, they swept UIC. If they lose their last 2 and Loyola wins their last 2, CSU falls to the 5 seed because Loyola swept CSU. If UIC also finishes with 10 wins, the 3-way head-to-head records are: Loyola 3-1, CSU 2-2, UIC 1-3, so CSU gets the 5 seed in this scenario whether UIC finishes with 9 wins or 10 wins.
Obviously if UIC wins their last 2 and Loyola wins at most 1, at 10-8 CSU gets the 5 seed outright.
If UIC and Loyola both win their last 2 and CSU finishes 10-8, they fall all the way to the 6 seed. UIC at 11-7 gets the 4 seed, and Loyola gets the 5 seed because they swept CSU.
UIC can clinch at least the 5 seed by winning their final 2 games. If CSU loses their final 2, UIC gets the 4 seed, otherwise they get the 5 seed.
If UIC is 10-8:
1. CSU 11-7 or 12-6 and Loyola 8-10 or 9-9
UIC is the 5 seed.
2. CSU 10-8 and Loyola 8-10 or 9-9
UIC is the 5 seed because they lose the tiebreaker
with CSU.
3. CSU 12-6 or 11-7, Loyola 10-8, and they beat
Butler, and Butler is the 3 seed
UIC is the 5 seed.
4. CSU 12-6, Loyola 10-8, they beat Butler, and CSU
is the 3 seed (if CSU is 11-7, then Butler is the
3 seed, so see #3 above).
UIC is the 6 seed.
For cases 3 & 4, UIC would be 2-0 against Butler
while Loyola would be 1-1 against Butler, but Loyola
is 2-0 against CSU while UIC is 0-2 against CSU.
So, it all depends on which one gets the higher
seed, Butler or CSU (which in turn depends on
whether Detroit or Green Bay gets the 1 seed)
5. CSU 12-6 or 11-7, Loyola 10-8, and they lose to Butler
UIC is the 6 seed. In this case, Butler is the
3 seed, but they no longer break the tie because
now both UIC and Loyola will have split with Butler,
leaving CSU as the tiebreaker in favor of Loyola.
If UIC is 9-9:
1. Loyola 10-8
UIC gets the 6 seed (WSU, Milwaukee, and VU can end
up with at most 7 wins).
2. Loyola 9-9 and Loyola beats Butler
UIC gets the 6 seed because they both will have split
with Butler, so the tiebreaker would fall to 4th
place CSU and Loyola wins that tiebreaker
3. Loyola 9-9 and Loyola loses to Butler
UIC gets the 5 seed because they will have split
with Butler while Loyola will have been swept by
Butler.
Loyola's possibilities are basically covered in the UIC analysis above. They will end up with either the 4, 5, or 6 seed. Their chance for the 4 seed basically comes from tying with CSU and finishing ahead of UIC.
Wright State clinches the 7 seed if they win their final 2 games:
1. If they tie with Milwaukee at 7-11, they win the
tiebreaker because they swept Milwaukee
2. If they tie with Valpo at 7-11, they win the tiebreaker
because they split with CSU and Detroit and Valpo was
swept by both teams (both were swept by Green Bay and
Butler).
3. If they tie with both at 7-11, head-to-head records
are: WSU 3-1 (2-0 vs. UWM, 1-1 vs. Valpo), Valpo 2-2
(1-1 vs. UWM), Milwaukee 1-3, so WSU gets the 7 seed,
Valpo the 8 seed, Milwaukee the 9 seed.
If WSU finishes 6-12 by losing to Detroit, the analysis above still applies in any ties that occur. The only difference is that Detroit no longer breaks the tie in WSU's favor, but CSU still does, and that's all they need.
So WSU clinches the 7 seed unless Milwaukee, Valpo or both win 7 and they lose to Detroit:
1. WSU 6-12, Milwaukee 7-11, Valpo 5-13
UWM 7, WSU 8, VU 9
2. WSU 6-12, Milwaukee 7-11, Valpo 6-12
WSU wins the tiebreaker via their split with CSU,
unless Loyola gets the 4 seed (pushing CSU to 5th) --
in which case, Valpo wins the tiebreaker because they
will have split with Loyola while WSU was swept by
them. So in that one case, WSU gets the 9 seed and
Valpo gets the 8 seed.
3. WSU 6-12, Valpo 7-11, Milwaukee 6-12 or 5-13
Valpo gets the 7 seed, WSU the 8 seed (they swept
UWM), and Milwaukee the 9 seed.
4. WSU 6-12, Valpo 7-11, Milwaukee 7-11
WSU gets the 9 seed. Milwaukee wins the tiebreaker
because they will have split with CSU while Valpo was
swept by them.
Milwaukee 6-12:
1. Valpo 5-13 -- Milwaukee 8 seed, Valpo 9 seed.
2. Valpo 6-12 and Milwaukee beats CSU -- Milwaukee 8
seed, Valpo 9 seed.
3. Valpo 6-12 and Milwaukee loses to CSU
a. Valpo beats Loyola and loses to UIC
UIC finishes ahead of Loyola, Milwaukee wins the
tiebreaker because they split with UIC while Valpo
will have been swept by UIC.
b. Valpo beats UIC and loses to Loyola
UIC gets the higher seed because when they tie with
Loyola, their sweep of Butler breaks the tie.
However, it doesn't matter, because both teams will
have split with UIC, while Milwaukee's sweep of
Loyola breaks the tie in their favor since Valpo
will have split with them.
Actually, Loyola can get the higher seed, but only
by beating Valpo, meaning Loyola breaks the tie in
Milwaukee without having to consider UIC.
Therefore, Milwaukee can clinch the 8 seed at 6-12 as long as Valpo does not finish 7-11. Valpo owns the Wright State tiebreaker, but it never gets that far. Either the UIC or the Loyola tiebreaker will break against Valpo first.
Likewise, if Milwaukee and Valpo tie at 5-13, Milwaukee wins the tiebreaker via either UIC or Loyola.
Losing all tiebreakers, Valpo gets the 9 seed unless they win at least 1 game and either Milwaukee or WSU or both finish with less wins than Valpo.
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