... In fact, Green Bay's lone chance at a double-bye consists of winning out while Wright State and Oakland both lose out, so that Green Bay is alone in 2nd at 12-6 ...
In this case it was a simple misspeak. Obviously if Wright State only loses 2 of their remaining 3, they will be 11-7 and that will also fit the condition above. It remains the case that Green Bay has to be alone at 12-6 in order for this to happen, but Wright State doesn't have to lose all their remaining games.
After last night's games:
Valparaiso 86 Oakland 84 Detroit 83 UIC 72 The standings are now: W L Pct. GB Valpo 13 2 0.867 0 OU 11 5 0.688 2.5 WSU 10 5 0.667 3 UWGB 8 6 0.571 4.5 UDM 9 7 0.563 4.5 UWM 7 7 0.500 5.5 YSU 5 9 0.357 7.5 NKU 5 10 0.333 8 CSU 3 11 0.214 9.5 UIC 3 12 0.200 10All Valpo needs to do is win one more game in their final 3 to lock up the 1 seed since no one else can reach 14 wins. If they lose out, they can still get the 1 seed if Wright State loses at least one more game because they now own the tiebreaker with Oakland. This accounts for 64512 of the remaining 65536 scenarios.
If Valpo loses out, Wright State wins out, and Oakland loses at least once more, Valpo gets the 2 seed by losing the tiebreaker with Wright State. If Oakland instead wins out, Valpo still gets the 2 seed as long as Milwaukee is the lone 4th place team because Wright State wins the 3-way tiebreaker by virtue of their sweep of Milwaukee, but that leaves a two-way tie between Valpo and Oakland (both of whom would split with Milwaukee), and Valpo wins that tiebreaker to get the 2 seed. All of this accounts for 796 scenarios. Thus Valpo gets a double-bye in 65308 of the remaining 65536 scenarios, leaving only those scenarios where all 3 teams are tied at 13-5 and Green Bay is tied with Milwaukee or better because these lead to Oakland getting the 1 seed, leaving Valpo tied with Wright State, who wins that tiebreaker. These are the remaining 228 scenarios.
In fact, those 228 scenarios are precisely the only ones which give Oakland the 1 seed. They need Wright State to also finish 13-5 to effectively cancel out Valpo's tiebreaker over them.
If Valpo gets the 1 seed, Oakland can get the 2 seed by winning out if Valpo wins at least one more game because they own the tiebreaker over Wright State (as effectively shown above, if Valpo instead loses out, Oakland either gets the 1 seed or the 3 seed). They can also get the 2 seed if they don't win out as long as they finish tied or better with Green Bay and Wright State (Milwaukee's max is 11-7) because their only relevant loss is one game to Milwaukee (who lost to both Wright State and Green Bay in addition to their loss to Oakland). All of this accounts for 52360 of the remaining 65536 scenarios, meaning they get a double-bye in 52588 of those scenarios.
Oakland gets the 4 seed if they lose out and both Wright State and Green Bay win at least 12, for obvious reasons. If they lose out and only one of those 2 teams wins 12 or more, they still end up with the 4 seed if Milwaukee wins out because they would lose the tiebreaker because Milwaukee would split with Valpo. This accounts for 872 scenarios.
That leaves 12076 scenarios in which Oakland gets the 3 seed.
Wright State gets the 1 seed if -- as mentioned above -- they tie with Oakland and Valpo at 13-5 and Milwaukee finishes alone in 4th since they win the tiebreaker as the only team that sweeps Milwaukee, or if they just tie with Valpo at 13-5 because they swept Valpo. This accounts for 796 of the remaining 65536 scenarios.
Wright State gets the 2 seed if -- as mentioned above -- they win out and Valpo wins at least one more and Oakland loses at least one more, they win out and time with Valpo and Oakland at 13-5 with Green Bay tied with or ahead of Milwaukee, which gives Oakland the 1 seed and Wright State the 2 seed. They also get the 2 seed outright if they win out, Valpo wins at least one more and Oakland loses at least one more. Finally, they get the 2 seed if they win 2 and lose 1 and Oakland loses out. Any tie with Green Bay would be favor them because they swept Valpo. All of this accounts for 11478 of the remaining 65536 scenarios, so that Wright State gets a double-bye in 12274 of those scenarios.
Otherwise, they can get as low as the 5 seed if they lose out, Milwaukee wins out, and Green Bay wins at least 3 putting them and Oakland at least at 11-7. This accounts for 180 scenarios. Otherwise they end up with either the 3 (48544 scenarios) or the 4 (4288 scenarios).
Green Bay was already eliminated from the 1 seed before last night (now they can't share the regular season title). They get the 2 seed (and thus their only chance at a double bye if they win out, Oakland loses out, and Wright State loses at least 2 of their 3 remaining games. Basically, they have to be alone in 2nd place at 12-6 in order for this to happen (512 of the remaining 65536 scenarios).
They can get as low as the 7 seed, and since their game with Youngstown State is going on as I type this, I'm going to stop here. I'll put out another post tomorrow with updates after today's games. Basically, if they lose to YSU today, they are eliminated from the double bye.
Milwaukee has an even smaller chance at the 2 seed and a double bye. If they win out, Oakland and Wright State both lose out, and Green Bay loses at least one more game, they will either tie with Oakland (and win by virtue of beating Valpo), and tie with Green Bay, Oakland, and Detroit at 11-7. In this 4-way tie, Green Bay is 3-3 (sweeping Detroit, swept by Oakland, split with Milwaukee), Milwaukee is 4-2 (sweeps Detroit and splits with Oakland), Detroit is 1-5 (swept by Green Bay and Milwaukee, split with Oakland), and Oakland is 4-2 (sweeps Green Bay, splits with Milwaukee and Detroit). Green Bay would drop out as the 4, Detroit as the 5, and Milwaukee would win the remaining tiebreaker with Oakland because they would split with Valpo. This accounts for 120 of the remaining 65536 scenarios.
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