With 3 more games in the books, leaving 13 remaining:
Green Bay 107 Youngstown State 90
Milwaukee 88 Cleveland State 54
Wright State 67 Northern Kentucky 64
Our standings are:
W L Pct. GB
Valpo 13 2 0.867 0
OU 11 5 0.688 2.5
WSU 11 5 0.688 2.5
UWGB 9 6 0.600 4
UDM 9 7 0.563 4.5
UWM 8 7 0.533 5
YSU 5 10 0.333 8
NKU 5 11 0.313 8.5
CSU 3 12 0.200 10
UIC 3 12 0.200 10
Valpo's situation remains largely unchanged. They get the 1 seed with at least 1 more win in the final 3 games, or if they lose out but Wright State loses at least 1 more game. This accounts for 7936 out of the remaining 8192 scenarios.They get the 2 seed if they lose out, Wright State wins out, and Oakland loses at least 1 more game because they lose the 1st place tiebreaker with Wright State. They also get the 2 seed if they lose out, Wright State wins out, Oakland wins out, Milwaukee wins out, and Green Bay and Detroit finish no higher than 10-8 because Wright State wins the 3-way tie for 1st due to Milwaukee, leaving Valpo to beat out Oakland for the 2 seed by virtue of sweeping them. This accounts for 196 of the remaining 8192 scenarios, meaning Valpo gets a double bye in 8132 out of the remaining 8192 scenarios.
In the remaining 60 scenarios, Valpo gets the 3 seed because they lose out, Wright State and Oakland win out, and Green Bay is ahead of or tied with Milwaukee and/or Detroit. In each case, Oakland wins the 1st place tiebreaker, and Wright State then wins the 2nd place tiebreaker by virtue of their sweep of Valpo.
Those 60 scenarios are Oakland's only hope for a 1 seed.
They get the 2 seed if they win out and Wright State loses at least 1 more game (losing the 1st place tiebreaker to Valpo and settling for the 2 seed or simply finishing 2nd to Valpo in the standings), if they split their remaining 2 games and Wright State loses at least 1 more game (winning the 2nd place tiebreaker over Wright State and Green Bay or simply finishing ahead of them), or if they and Wright State both lose out and Green Bay loses at least 1 more because they swept Wright State and Green Bay and split with Milwaukee and Detroit (no matter how many are tied with them at 11-7 -- 1, 2, 3, or 4 -- they always win the tiebreaker).
To expand on that last one: Obviously the two way tie with Wright State goes to Oakland. Add in Green Bay, who Oakland also swept, and nothing changes. Add in Milwaukee and they win with a 3-1 record (WSU 2-2, UWM 1-3). Add in Detroit and they win with a 3-1 record (UDM 2-2, WSU 1-3). Add in Green Bay and Milwaukee and they win with a 5-1 record (WSU 3-3, UWM 2-4, GB 2-4). Add in Green Bay and Detroit and they win with a 5-1 record (WSU 2-4, GB 3-3, UDM 2-4). Add in Milwaukee and Detroit and they win with a 4-2 record (WSU 3-3, UWM 2-4, UDM 3-3). Finally, add all 3 in and they win with a 6-2 record (WSU 4-4, GB 4-4, UWM 3-5, UDM 3-5).
All of that accounts for 5504 out of the remaining 8192 scenarios, which means Oakland gets a double bye in 5564 of the remaining scenarios.
They get the 3 seed if they, Wright State, and Milwaukee win out, Valpo loses out, and everybody else wins 10 or less as mentioned above, if they split their remaining games and Wright State wins out (Green Bay is no threat because of the tiebreaker), or if they lose out and either Green Bay loses at least one or Wright State loses out (they win all the tiebreakers as mentioned above). Thes accounts for 2156 of the remaining 8192 scenarios.
4 (320 scenarios), 5 (144 scenarios), and 6 (8 scenarios) seeds are also possible for Oakland. All of them start with Oakland losing out, so if they win at least 1 more game, they clinch at least the 3 seed.
Wright State gets the 1 seed if they win out, Valpo loses out, and Oakland loses at least 1 more game (192 scenarios), or if they and Oakland both win out, Valpo loses out, and Milwaukee finishes alone in 4th place as mentioned before (4 scenarios). Those are the only two ways they get the 1 seed (total of 196 out of the remaining 8192 scenarios).
Wright State gets the 2 seed if Valpo wins at least 1 more game, and Oakland finishes with at least 1 less win than they do (2368 scenarios), or if they tie with Oakland and Valpo at 13-5 (they and Oakland win out and Valpo loses out) and Green Bay ties or exceeds Milwaukee (60 scenarios) because Oakland and Wright State are both 3-1 against GB/UWM while Valpo would be 2-2, then Oakland eliminates Wright State from the 1 seed OR because Oakland is 2-0 against GB while Wright State and Valpo would be 1-1, then Wright State eliminates Valpo from the 2 seed (total of 2428 scenarios, meaning Wright State gets a double bye in 2624 out of the remaining 8192 scenarios).
Wright State gets the 5 seed (the lowest they can go) if they and Oakland lose out and Green Bay and Detroit win out (28 scenarios) because they lose the 3-way tiebreaker with Oakland and Detroit (WSU 1-3, Detroit 2-2, Oakland 3-1). If Oakland wins at least 1 game, Wright State would win the tiebreaker with Detroit because of their sweep of Valpo.
Wright State gets the 4 seed in 424 scenarios which begin with them losing out but avoid the above 5 seed scenarios.
In the remaining 5540 scenarios, they get the 3 seed (some of which include them still losing out).
Green Bay still has an outside shot at the 2 seed thanks to their win over Youngstown State yesterday. Their path is simple: if they win out and both Wright State and Oakland lose out, they get the 2 seed because they would be the only team besides Valpo to reach 12 wins (64 scenarios).
They can fall as low as the 6 seed.
Milwaukee has an outside shot at the 3 seed. If they win out, both Valpo and Wright State win at least 1 more game, Oakland loses out, and Detroit and Green Bay each finish no higher than 10-8, they get the 3 seed (48 scenarios) because they win the tiebreaker with Oakland by splitting with Valpo.
They can fall as low as the 7 seed (haven't broken it down yet, but they lose a bunch of tiebreakers to Youngstown State!)
Detroit has a shot at the 3 seed. If they win out, Oakland loses out, and Green Bay finishes no higher than 10-8, they get the 3 seed (340 scenarios) because they win the tiebreaker with Oakland by splitting with Valpo, they finish 2nd in a 3-way tie for 2nd with Oakland and Wright State (OU 3-1, UDM 2-2, WSU 1-3), and they win 3rd place tiebreaker with Oakland and Milwaukee (there is no other tie that hasn't already been resolved in favor of Wright State or Oakland) because they and Milwaukee eliminate Oakland by splitting with Valpo and they then eliminate Milwaukee by splitting with Wright State.
They can fall as low as the 6 seed.
Analysis of lower seed intricacies will start to fill in more after today's or tomorrow's games.
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