#HLMBB top 6 tiebreakers: Valpo, Oakland, Wright State, Green Bay, Milwaukee, Detroit

Two more games in the can tonight:

Milwaukee 87 Youngstown State 51
Green Bay 78 Cleveland State  61

        W       L       Pct.    GB
Valpo   14      2       0.875   0
OU      12      5       0.706   2.5
WSU     11      5       0.688   3
UWGB    10      6       0.625   4
UWM     9       7       0.563   5
UDM     9       8       0.529   5.5
YSU     5       10      0.333   8.5
NKU     5       11      0.313   9
CSU     3       12      0.200   10.5
UIC     3       13      0.188   11

First off, let me restate the following more cleanly (and possibly more correctly):

However, Wright State has to win out (if Oakland beats Detroit) or win at least 1 more (if Detroit beats Oakland) or Green Bay has to lose at least 1 more (if Wright State loses out) to guarantee the 3 seed. In the last case, Green Bay and Milwaukee are capable of also reaching 11-7, but Wright State will be the only HL team to sweep Valpo so they hold all the cards.

If Wright State wins out and Oakland beats Detroit, they get the 3 seed. If they split their final 2 games, they get the 3 seed. If they lose out and Green Bay loses at least 1 more game, Wright State gets the 3 seed. In a tie with Green Bay at 12-6, they win because of their sweep of Valpo. In a tie with Green Bay and/or Milwaukee, Wright State split with the former and swept the latter, and is the only one of the 3 to sweep Valpo, so the only way for Wright State to fall to the 4 seed is if Green Bay wins out.

Green Bay's 3 seed case is unchanged from yesterday, but they guaranteed themselves at least the 5 seed with their win tonight. They have to settle for the 5 seed if they lose out, Milwaukee splits their remaining 2 games, and Oakland beats Detroit. If they beat UIC and lose to Valpo and Milwaukee wins out and Wright State wins at least 1, they have to settle for the 5 seed (if Wright State loses out we have a 3-way tie for 3rd giving Green Bay the 4 seed). If they beat Valpo and lose to UIC, Milwaukee wins out, Oakland gets the 2 seed, and Wright State wins at least 1 more game, they have to settle for the 5 seed because Milwaukee wins the tiebreaker due to their split with Oakland (both would have split with Valpo).

Otherwise, Green Bay gets the 4 seed.

Milwaukee can no longer get the 3 seed because the best they can do is tie Wright State and/or Green Bay (tying Wright State only does Milwaukee no good) at 11-7. At best, Milwaukee gets the 4 in those scenarios if Green Bay loses out. If Green Bay splits their remaining 2 games, Milwaukee gets the 5.

In order to get the 4 seed, Milwaukee has to finish higher than Detroit and at least as high as Green Bay. If Milwaukee is 10-8, Detroit has to be 9-9 and Green Bay has to lose at least 1 of their 2 remaining games. They will either have 4th place all to themselves or tie with Green Bay. Since Oakland beats Detroit in this case and gets the 2 seed, either Milwaukee wins the tiebreaker because Green Bay is swept by Valpo or because Green Bay is swept by Oakland.

Milwaukee gets the 5 seed if they win out and either Green Bay wins out or Green Bay beats Valpo and Wright State either ties both teams at 11-7 or gets the 2 seed at 13-5 because Detroit beats Oakland. If Green Bay wins out, the best they can do is tie Wright State for 4th, and Wright State wins that tiebreaker. If Green Bay splits (beats Valpo, loses to UIC) and Wright State ties with them and Milwaukee for 3rd at 11-7, Wright State wins the tiebreaker with a 3-1 record and Green Bay finishes 2nd at 2-2, leaving Milwaukee with the 5 seed at 1-3. If Green Bay splits (beats Valpo, loses to UIC) and Wright State wins out to become the 2 seed, Green Bay wins tiebreaker because both split with Valpo and Green Bay splits with Wright State while Milwaukee is swept by them.

If Detroit beats Oakland, Milwaukee loses to Valpo, and Green Bay wins at least 1 of their remaining 2 games, Milwaukee falls to the 6 seed because even at 10-8, they lose the tiebreaker with Detroit (both swept by Valpo, they both are swept by Oakland, but Detroit splits with Wright State while Milwaukee is swept by them, and Green Bay is locked in as 4 seed -- it doesn't matter which one gets the 2 seed since Oakland doesn't break the tie). Detroit would get the 5 seed in this case.

In all other scenarios, Detroit gets the 6 seed. And obviously our top 6 are now locked in. The bottom 4 will be Youngstown State, Northern Kentucky, Cleveland State, and UIC>