Monday, February 22, 2016

#HLMBB Post Sunday update: 1 seed locked, 2 seed down to Oakland and Wright State

After Sunday's games one seed has solidified:

Valparaiso 90 Detroit 74
Oakland    74 UIC     63

        W       L       Pct.    GB
Valpo   14      2       0.875   0
OU      12      5       0.706   2.5
WSU     11      5       0.688   3
UWGB    9       6       0.600   4.5
UDM     9       8       0.529   5.5
UWM     8       7       0.533   5.5
YSU     5       10      0.333   8.5
NKU     5       11      0.313   9
CSU     3       12      0.200   10.5
UIC     3       13      0.188   11
We now have the 1 seed locked down: Valpo (since everyone else has at least 5 losses). Meanwhile, Oakland's win eliminated Green Bay from the chase for the 2 seed. We are now down to Wright State and Oakland.

Oakland can get the 2 seed by beating Detroit on Friday or if Wright State loses at least 1 more game next weekend. Conversely, in order for Wright State to get the 2 seed, they have to win out (the easy part -- YSU and CSU, both at home) *and* Oakland has to lose to Detroit at home (the hard part). If Wright State gets the 2 seed, Oakland gets the 3 seed (they are guaranteed at least the 3 seed).

However, Wright State has to win out (if Oakland beats Detroit) or win at least 1 more (if Detroit beats Oakland) or Green Bay has to lose at least 1 more (if Wright State loses out) to guarantee the 3 seed. In the last case, Green Bay and Milwaukee are capable of also reaching 11-7, but Wright State will be the only HL team to sweep Valpo so they hold all the cards.

Wright State has to settle for the 4 seed if they lose out and Green Bay wins out.

That covers the 2 seed, Wright State, and Oakland.

Likewise Green Bay gets the 3 seed if they win out and Wright State loses out. If they win out and Wright State wins at least 1 more, they get the 4 seed.

If they lose out and Detroit beats Oakland, Green Bay has to settle for the 6 seed (if Oakland beats Detroit and/or Milwaukee finishes 9-9, Green Bay wins any tiebreaker -- getting the 4 seed if both finish 9-9 because they swept Detroit and split with Milwaukee, getting the 5 seed if Milwaukee wins 10 or more because they swept Detroit, or getting the 5 seed if they just tie Milwaukee because they split with Wright State).

That's not every last scenario for Green Bay, but it's close.

With today's loss to Valpo, Detroit has been eliminated from the 3 seed. Oakland's win at UIC also eliminated Milwaukee from the 3 seed. So the 3 seed is down to Wright State, Green Bay, and Oakland.

If Milwaukee wins out and Green Bay loses at least 1 more game, and Oakland is the 2 seed, Milwaukee gets the 4 seed. If they tie with Green Bay, they win the tiebreaker (if Green Bay gets one of its wins against Valpo, they win because of their split with Oakland; if Green Bay loses again to Valpo, they win because they split with Valpo).

If Detroit beats Oakland, Green Bay loses out, and Milwaukee beats Youngstown State and UIC and loses to Valpo or loses 2 or more regardless of who, Detroit gets the 4 seed because only Milwaukee can tie them at 10-8, and in this case only Wright State breaks the tie, in favor of Detroit because they split with them while Milwaukee was swept by them.

This covers the top 6 seeds, except for the case where Milwaukee loses out and Youngstown wins out. Both get swept by Valpo, both split with Oakland, and both split with Green Bay. The only top 4 team left is Wright State, and they break the tie in favor of Youngstown State because they split with them while sweeping Milwaukee.

Outside of this one situation, there is a clean separation between the top 6 (Valpo, Oakland, Wright State, Green Bay, Milwaukee, Detroit) and the bottom 4 (Youngstown State, Northern Kentucky, Cleveland State, and UIC).

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