Monday, March 4, 2013

Women's seeding for HL tourney

If you are paying any attention at all to HL Women's basketball, you know that Green Bay (as usual) already has the 1 seed clinched.
 W L
UWGB 14 0
YSU 10 4
Loyola 9 5
UDM 8 6
UIC 5 9
CSU 5 10
WSU 5 10
UWM 4 10
Valpo 4 10
Beyond that, everything is still up for grabs.

The 2 seed is between YSU and Loyola. The Penguins play Valpo tonight and Detroit on Thursday. Loyola plays Green Bay on Thursday and UIC on Saturday. Obviously, if YSU wins out, they clinch the 2 seed. Loyola's only chance for the 2 seed is if YSU splits or loses out.

The two teams can tie at 10-6 or 11-5 since they don't play each other. If they tie and Loyola beats Green Bay, Loyola gets the 2 seed as the only team to beat Green Bay. Even if they tie and Loyola loses to Green Bay, Loyola can still get the 2 seed if:
1.  Valpo beats YSU and Detroit
2.  Detroit beats YSU
3.  Loyola beats UIC
This gives (leaving out first place):
 W L
YSU 10 6
Loyola 10 6
UDM 9 7
UIC 6 10
Valpo 6 10
plus 1 or 2 others at 6-10
Loyola split with YSU, they both would be swept by Green Bay, they both would split with Detroit, so that brings us to 6-10. UIC and Valpo would be 6-10. CSU, WSU, and UWM also could be 6-10.

YSU swept UIC, CSU, WSU, and UWM, but would be swept by Valpo in this scenario. Loyola swept CSU, UWM, and Valpo, and would split with UIC and WSU. CSU and UWM are common to both, so eliminate them. UIC favors YSU by 1 game. WSU favors YSU by 1 game. However, Valpo favors Loyola by 2 games. UIC and Valpo must be 6-10 in this scenario, so together they favor Loyola by 1 game. If WSU is 5-11, then Loyola gets the 2 seed. If WSU is also 6-10, then only CSU and UWM remain, meaning the 2 seed would be decided by RPI.

In all other scenarios, YSU gets the 2 seed.

Obviously, the top 4 seeds have been decided except for the order: Green Bay, YSU, Loyola, and Detroit. UIC can only get to 7-9, which is only good enough for 5th place, and the remaining teams can only get to 6-10.

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