As of last night's games:
Milwaukee 61 Wright State 58 Green Bay 72 UIC 67 Team W L Pct. GB Valpo 12 3 0.800 0 CSU 11 4 0.733 1 Oakland 11 4 0.733 1 GB 11 4 0.733 1 Milw. 8 7 0.533 4 Ineligible Detroit 7 9 0.438 5.5 Clinched 5 seed UIC 3 12 0.200 9 WSU 3 12 0.200 9 YSU 2 13 0.133 10If Valpo beats CSU they get the 1 seed. If Valpo loses to CSU and Green Bay beats Oakland, Valpo gets the 2 seed (Valpo wins the tiebreaker because they split with CSU while Green Bay was swept by them). If they lose to CSU and Oakland beats Green Bay, Valpo ends up with the 3 seed because Oakland also sweeps Green Bay while Valpo only split with them.
CSU gets the 1 seed if they beat Valpo and Oakland loses to Green Bay. If Oakland instead wins out, RPI breaks the tie.
If Valpo beats CSU and Oakland beats Green Bay, CSU gets the 3 seed because they win the tiebreaker with Green Bay. If they lose to Valpo and Green Bay wins out, CSU gets the 4 seed because they lose the tiebreaker with Oakland since they get swept by Valpo while Oakland split with them.
Oakland's only shot at the 1 seed is mentioned above in the RPI tiebreaker with CSU. If Valpo beats CSU and Oakland beats Green Bay, Oakland gets the 2 seed without the need for tiebreakers. If CSU beats Valpo and Green Bay wins out, Oakland gets the 4 seed because the other 3 teams are 12-4. If Valpo beats CSU and Green Bay beats Oakland, Oakland gets the 3 seed because they win a two-way tiebreaker with CSU (only team to beat Valpo).
Green Bay gets the 2 seed if they win out and Valpo beats CSU. All the tiebreakers are bad for them, so the only way is for both CSU and Oakland to finish 11-5. They get the 3 seed if they win out and CSU beats Valpo (they lose the 3-way tiebreaker with Valpo and CSU but finish 1 game ahead of Oakland). If they lose to Oakland, they lose the 2-way tiebreaker with CSU (head-to-head) and get the 4 seed.
UIC can clinch the 6 seed simply by beating WSU. If WSU beats UIC and Milwaukee beats YSU, UIC ends up with the 7 seed (they finish at least one game behind WSU and they finish ahead of YSU. If WSU beats UIC and YSU beats Milwaukee, UIC gets the 8 seed because they lose the tiebreaker with YSU (Milwaukee finishes ahead of Detroit and sweeps UIC but splits with YSU).
WSU gets the 6 seed if they beat UIC and the 7 seed if UIC beats them and Milwaukee beats YSU. If they lose and YSU beats Milwaukee, WSU gets the 8 seed because they were swept by Milwaukee while YSU split with them (NOTE: this is a correction from my previous post. SECOND NOTE: if Milwaukee doesn't participate in tiebreakers as a common opponent, Detroit would break this tie for WSU instead)
YSU gets the 7 seed if they beat Milwaukee because they win the tiebreaker over either WSU or UIC because both were swept by Milwaukee (likewise, the winner of the WSU-UIC game gets the 6 seed while the loser gets the 7 seed). If they lose to Milwaukee, they of course end up with the 8 seed.
Valpo at Cleveland State - Valpo can absolutely claim the 1 seed; Cleveland State can most likely claim the 1 seed (they currently lead in the RPI over Oakland by about 19 points).