The disclaimer I wrote here:
Top 2 seed scenarios with 10 games left in #HLMBB.
This year my tiebreaker analysis is going to be less than 100% definite because I have not heard yet exactly how the Horizon League office is treating Milwaukee in it's application of the tiebreakers. Obviously they are ineligible for the NCAA tournament, therefore they are ineligible for the Horizon League tournament.
I'm going to go out on a limb and base my analysis on the following premise: all of Milwaukee's league games count for the teams they played, therefore the proper thing to do is pretend that Milwaukee is eligible and then at the very end delete them from the list and move everybody lower up one slot.
has turned out to be much ado about nothing. The only context in which things could have gotten complicated is when Detroit and Milwaukee both finish 7-9. The only top 4 team who would function as a tiebreaker for these two teams is Valpo, and in these scenarios, Detroit would win the tiebreaker anyway. There are 4 of these scenarios that also include a tie for 1st between CSU and Oakland, so procedurally we're not supposed to break this tie until we break that one, but it turns out that CSU and Oakland both split with each team, so Milwaukee-Detroit isn't breaking that tie -- in fact, as mentioned before, nobody can break that tie, it has to be broken by RPI. Moreover, it doesn't matter which of the two wins that tiebreaker, that team is not going to be able to break the Milwaukee-Detroit tie. Only Valpo can (Green Bay gets swept by both teams so they don't resolve anything either.
As of last night's games:
Detroit 63 Valpo 60
Oakland 82 Youngstown State 71
Team W L Pct. GB
Valpo 12 3 0.800 0
CSU 11 4 0.733 1.5
Oakland 11 4 0.733 1.5
GB 10 4 0.714 2
Milw. 7 7 0.500 5 Ineligible
Detroit 7 9 0.438 5.5 Clinched 5 seed
UIC 3 11 0.214 9
WSU 3 11 0.214 9
YSU 2 13 0.133 10
Detroit managed to keep CSU alive for the 1 seed, and in fact the Vikings once again control their own destiny (with the possible exception of RPI tiebreakers, where they depend on their non-conference opponents to help them).
If Valpo beats CSU they get the 1 seed. If Valpo loses to CSU and Green Bay beats Oakland, Valpo gets the 2 seed (even if Green Bay beats UIC, Valpo wins the tiebreaker because they split with CSU while Green Bay was swept by them). If they lose to CSU and Oakland beats Green Bay, Valpo ends up with the 3 seed because Oakland also sweeps Green Bay while Valpo only split with them.
CSU gets the 1 seed if they beat Valpo and Oakland loses to Green Bay. If Oakland instead wins out, RPI breaks the tie.
If Valpo beats CSU and Green Bay beats Oakland and UIC beats Green Bay, CSU gets the 2 seed. If Valpo beats CSU and Oakland beats Green Bay, CSU gets the 3 seed because they win the tiebreaker with Green Bay. If they lose to Valpo and Green Bay wins out, CSU gets the 4 seed because they lose the tiebrekaer with Oakland since they get swept by Valpo while Oakland split with them.
Oakland's only shot at the 1 seed is mentioned above in the RPI tiebreaker with CSU. The same RPI tiebreaker for 2nd place no longer exists because Valpo lost to Detroit. If Valpo beats CSU and Oakland beats Green Bay, Oakland gets the 2 seed without the need for tiebreakers. If CSU beats Valpo and Green Bay wins out, Oakland gets the 4 seed because the other 3 teams are 12-4. If Valpo beats CSU and Green Bay beats Oakland, Oakland gets the 3 seed because they win a two-way tiebreaker with CSU (with Green Bay beating UIC) and in a 3-way tie with CSU and Green Bay, they finish in the middle of the 3 (CSU 3-1, Oakland 2-2, Green Bay 1-3). If CSU beats Valpo and Green Bay beats Oakland and UIC beats Green Bay, they get the 3 seed because they win the tiebreaker over Green Bay because they split with CSU while Green Bay was swept by them.
Green Bay gets the 2 seed if they win out and Valpo beats CSU. All the tiebreakers are bad for them, so the only way is for both CSU and Oakland to finish 11-5. They get the 3 seed if they win out and CSU beats Valpo (they lose the 3-way tiebreaker with Valpo and CSU but finish 1 game ahead of Oakland). If they beat Oakland but lose to UIC, they lose the 2-way tiebreaker with Oakland (common opponent CSU) and the 3-way tiebreaker with Oakland and CSU (head-to-head-to-head) and in either case get the 4 seed. If they lose to Oakland, they lose the 2-way tiebreaker with CSU (head-to-head) and get the 4 seed.
Now for the lower 3: YSU plays Milwaukee, so they've already split with UIC and WSU. WSU has Milwaukee and UIC left to play and they need a win over UIC to gain a split with them. So the WSU-UIC game is only one left between these 3 teams. WSU and UIC are tied for 8th at 3-11, YSU brings up the rear at 2-12.
If WSU beats UIC, then any ties would have to resort to common opponents. If UIC beats WSU, UIC would have the upper hand in a 3-way tie or a tie with WSU.
Thus, UIC can clinch the 6 seed simply by winning out. If they lose to WSU they can still get the 6 seed if they beat Green Bay (since WSU and YSU both were swept by the Phoenix) and WSU loses to Milwaukee. If they beat WSU but lose to Green Bay, they of course win a tiebreaker with WSU (there is no longer a 3-way tie at 4-12). If WSU beats UIC and Milwaukee wins out and Green Bay beats UIC, UIC ends up with the 7 seed (they finish at least one game behind WSU and they finish tied with or ahead of YSU and they win a tiebreaker with YSU since they split with Detroit while YSU was swept by them (Green Bay, Oakland, CSU, and Valpo all sweep both teams). If WSU beats UIC but loses to Milwaukee and YSU beats Milwaukee and Green Bay beats UIC, UIC gets the 8 seed because they lose the tiebreaker with YSU (Milwaukee finishes ahead of Detroit and sweeps UIC but splits with YSU).
If WSU beats Milwaukee, Milwaukee and Detroit tie at 7-9. Detroit wins the tiebreaker because of their win over Valpo (in addition to being eligible), and Detroit swept YSU while splitting with UIC, so UIC gets the 7 seed in this tiebreaker with YSU.
WSU can also clinch the 6 seed simply by winning out. If they beat UIC but lose to Milwaukee, UIC would still have to lose to Green Bay in order for WSU to gain the 6 seed. If WSU beats Milwaukee but loses to UIC, WSU gets the 7 seed because they lose the tiebreaker with UIC or finish one game behind them. They can't fall to the 8 seed because if they lose out and YSU beats Milwaukee, Detroit breaks the tie in favor of WSU.
YSU can't get the 6 seed for the same reason. If they beat Milwaukee and Milwaukee beats WSU, they tie with either UIC or WSU for 8th place. Milwaukee finishes ahead of Detroit and they favor YSU in either case, so YSU would get the 7 seed. If YSU loses to Milwaukee OR YSU beats Milwaukee and WSU and UIC each win OR YSU beats Milwaukee and WSU wins out and Green Bay beats UIC, YSU gets the 8 seed because Detroit sweeps YSU while splitting with UIC.
Tonight's games:
Milwaukee at Wright State - Milwaukee can clinch sole possession of 5th place (for any solace that gives them) and thus assert themselves as a higher tiebreaker than Detroit, Wright State can keep control of their own destiny for the 6 seed.
Green Bay at UIC - UIC can increase their influence as a tiebreaker and avoid having to meet Detroit next Tuesday, Green Bay can keep alive their pursuit of a 2 seed
