Scores from 3/5/2009:
Valparaiso 70 Cleveland State 52
Wright State 64 Loyola 44
Butler 61 Youngstown State 42
Detroit 63 UIC 55
Seed Team Conf 1st round matchup
---- ---------- ---- -----------------
#1 Green Bay 17-0 Will host winner of #8-#9 game
#2 Butler 13-4 Will host winner of #7-#10 game
#3 Cleveland State 12-5 Will host #6 (UIC at the moment)
#4 Valparaiso 10-7 Will host #5 (Wright State at
the moment)
#5 Wright State 9-8 +-The winner gets the 5 seed
#6 UIC 8-9 +-
#7 Milwaukee 7-10 Can get the 6 seed with a win
and a UIC loss
#8 Detroit 6-11 Will host #9 Loyola
#9 Loyola 3-14
#10 Youngstown State 0-17
Green Bay has the 1 seed.
Butler can of course clinch the 2 seed by beating Cleveland State Saturday. If they lose, both teams would be 13-5. They will have split with each other. Both have been swept by Green Bay.
Both split with Valparaiso, but Butler swept Wright State while Cleveland State split with Wright State. Even if both Valparaiso and Wright State end up tied, Butler's sweep of Wright State will decide it for Butler. There's no way UIC or anyone else can finish in a tie for 4th.
Therefore, Butler has clinched the 2 seed, and Cleveland State has clinched the 3 seed.
Valparaiso can clinch the 4 seed outright by beating Youngstown State Saturday. If they lose and Wright State lose, the Crusaders would still have the 4 seed. If they lose and the Raiders win, both teams would be 10-8. They split with each other. Both teams were swept by Green Bay, but Valparaiso split with Butler and Wright State was swept by Butler, so ...
Valparaiso has clinched the 4 seed.
Wright State can clinch the 5 seed by beating UIC Saturday. If they lose, both teams tie at 9-9. UIC would win the tiebreaker because they will have swept the Raiders. So, if UIC wins Saturday, they get the 5 seed and Wright State the 6 seed. If Wright State wins, they get the 5 seed, but UIC does not yet have the 6 seed sown up.
If Milwaukee beats Green Bay Saturday while UIC loses, the two teams will tie at 8-10. They split with each other, but Milwaukee's win over Green Bay would win them the tiebreaker since UIC (along with everyone else in the HL) was swept by the Phoenix. Hence, in that case, Milwaukee would get the 6 seed and escape the play-in round, traveling to Cleveland State on Wednesday.
If UIC wins, Milwaukee can still clinch the 7 seed outright by beating Green Bay Saturday. If they lose and Detroit loses, they still get the 7 seed. If they lose and Detroit wins, both teams finish 7-11. They split with each other. Both will have been swept by Green Bay. However, Milwaukee split with Butler while Detroit was swept by Butler, so ...
Milwaukee has clinched the 7 seed.
Detroit, Loyola, and Youngstown State have clinched the 8, 9, and 10 seeds respectively outright.
3 comments:
Hi Jim-
At quick reading your analysis seems sound. But, I guess your summary chart is wrong?
#5 Wright State 9-8 +-The winner Saturday hosts
#6 UIC 8-9 +-the loser
But, from your text, the winner goes to Valpo, and the closer to Cleveland State?
Right you are. Sloppy again ;) Not as sloppy as some of my men's seed race posts, but still.
I'll correct. Thanks!
As a matter of fact, I missed the remote chance that Milwaukee has for the 6 seed: if UIC loses and Milwaukee wins, they are tied at 8-10, they split with each other, but UIC was swept by Green Bay while Milwaukee will have been swept by Green Bay. It's probably a long shot for the Panthers, but it's possible.
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