Sunday, March 1, 2009

Women's seed race 3/1/2009

Scores from 2/28/2009:

Wright State 63 Detroit 50
Valparaiso 67 Milwaukee 64
Cleveland State 67 Loyola 62
UIC 68 Youngstown State 64
Green Bay 69 Butler 64

Seed Team Conf 1st round matchup
---- ---------- ---- -----------------
#1 Green Bay 17-0 Will host winner of #8-#9 game
#2 Butler 12-4 Would host winner of #7-#10 game
#3 Cleveland State 12-4 Would host #6 Wright State
#4 Valparaiso 9-7 Would host #5 UIC
#5 UIC 8-8
#6 Wright State 8-8
#7 Milwaukee 7-10 Would host #10 Youngstown State
#8 Detroit 5-11 Would host #9 Loyola
#9 Loyola 3-13
#10 Youngstown State 0-16

Green Bay has the 1 seed.

Butler and Cleveland State are tied for 2nd at 12-4 with 2 games left. One of those games is between the two teams. Butler also has Youngstown State and Cleveland State has Valparaiso. Only one of the two teams can finish 14-4. Whichever one does will have the 2 seed and the other will have the 3 seed. If they tie at 13-5, it depends on which one beats the other next Saturday. If Butler beats Cleveland State, they win the tiebreaker because they will have swept Cleveland State. If the Vikings win, then they will have split. They both have been swept by Green Bay. This also means that Butler beats Youngstown State and Valparaiso beats Cleveland State.

Common Opponents:
Butler Cleveland State
Valparaiso 1-1 1-1
Wright State 2-0 1-1
UIC 2-0 2-0

One of the above 3 teams must finish 4th. All of them can finish 4th. No matter which team(s) finish 4th, the only one that breaks the tie is Wright State and it favors Butler.

If Wright State finishes 8-10 and Milwaukee beats Green Bay, then we have to also include Milwaukee. The Panthers split with Butler but were swept by Cleveland State. That would make Butler's record against the two teams 3-1, and Cleveland State's record would also be 3-1. In this one case, the tie is not yet broken. So we continue to list more common opponents:

Detroit 2-0 2-0
Loyola 2-0 2-0
Youngstown State 2-0 2-0

And so, here too, just as it happened on the Men's side, this tiebreaker could be decided via RPI. As of 9:05 am, Saturday, Feb. 28th, Butler's RPI was 125, Cleveland State's was 118. While they play each other, Butler has to play 332nd Youngstown State, while Cleveland State plays 128th Valparaiso. It looks like Cleveland State would win the tiebreaker in this case, but it is too close to call at this point.

One thing is certain: Butler and Cleveland State have both clinched at least the 3 seed.

Valparaiso can guarantee the 4 seed and a home game by beating Cleveland State and Youngstown State. They would finish 11-7 and everyone else has at least 8 losses.

If Valparaiso splits next week to finish 10-8, either Wright State or UIC can tie them by winning out (one of the games next week pits these two against each other). The Crusaders split with both teams.

If they tie with Wright State, it depends first on who finishes 2nd. If Butler finishes 2nd, then Valparaiso wins the tiebreaker because they split with Butler while Wright State was swept by Butler. If Cleveland State finishes 2nd, then it depends on the Crusaders-Vikings game next week. If Valparaiso wins that game, they split with Cleveland State same as Wright State did, and then Butler would break the tie in favor of Valparaiso. But if they lose to the Vikings, then Wright State wins the tiebreaker because they split with Cleveland State.

If Valparaiso ties at 10-8 with UIC, then they would win the tiebreaker no matter who finishes 2nd, since both Butler and Cleveland State swept the Flames.

If Valparaiso goes 0-2 next week, either UIC or Wright State could jump into the 4 seed all by themselves by going 2-0 next week. The other would finish tied with Valparaiso at 9-9 or in 6th place at 8-10. If it is Wright State, they win the tiebreaker if Cleveland State finishes 2nd, Valparaiso wins the tiebreaker if Butler finishes 2nd. If it is UIC, Valparaiso wins the tiebreaker outright.

If all 3 teams end up 9-9 and UIC beats wright State, then the head to head records would be: UIC 3-1 (1-1 vs. Valparaiso, 2-0 vs. Wright State), Valparaiso 2-2 (1-1 vs. Wright State), Wright State 1-3. UIC would be 4th, Valparaiso would be 5th, and Wright State would be 6th.

If all 3 teams end up 9-9 and Wright State beats UIC, all 3 teams would be 2-2 in head to head competition. If Butler finishes 2nd, Valparaiso wins the tiebreaker, and Wright State takes 5th by virtue of their split with 3rd place Cleveland State and UIC takes 6th. If Cleveland State finishes 2nd, Wright State wins the tiebreaker, and Valparaiso takes 5th by virtue of their split with 3rd place Butler and UIC takes 6th.

If Milwaukee beats Green Bay, either Wright State or UIC could lose out and be tied with the Panthers at 8-10. Both teams split with Milwaukee. If Wright State ties with Milwaukee, they win the tiebreaker if Cleveland State finishes 2nd while Milwaukee wins the tiebreaker if Butler finishes 2nd (since the Panthers also split with Butler). If UIC ties with Milwaukee, Milwaukee wins the tiebreaker since both teams were swept by Cleveland State.

Detroit can clinch the 8 seed by winning one more game.

If Detroit loses to UIC and Loyola and Loyola beats Wright State, both teams finish 5-13. Both were swept by Green Bay, Butler, and Cleveland State. If Valparaiso finishes 4th, Detroit wins the tiebreaker because they split with Valparaiso while Loyola was swept by them. If Wright State finishes 4th, Loyola wins the tiebreaker for a similar reason. If UIC finishes 4th, they would fail to break the tie since they swept both teams, and it would fall to 5th place, which would be either Wright State or UIC at 9-9 and the same logic would apply as it did when either one of those teams finishes 4th.

Youngstown State has clinched the 10 seed.

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