On The Horizon

Jim Squire

Week 3 Weekend Watchlist--Basket Under Review

Saturday, November 22
C Games
#208 Milwaukee at #94 Wichita State (-12), 7 PM ET, ESPN+.
Wichita State has been one of the steadiest KenPom risers in the country so far this season, not only jumping 36 spots (+6.34 EM change is sixth-largest) since opening day but experiencing a leap after each game. The Shockers won their first three games by an average of 27.0 points before suffering a three-point loss as an eight-point underdog at Boise State in their latest game.
Wichita State now returns home to face a Milwaukee team that is winless in three tries away from home in the early going. Despite Milwaukee’s losses at Wofford, Indiana, and Texas Tech, though, it still has the potential to be dangerous. The Panthers were picked as the Horizon League favorite in the preseason poll, plus have managed to improve on their preseason KenPom ranking amid the losses. Additionally, some of their margins of defeat are inflated. Milwaukee lost by 17 points at Texas Tech in its most recent game, but was within eight of the nationally-ranked opponent with under 10 minutes left.
An area to watch could be Milwaukee’s effectiveness in the mid-range. Wichita State is limiting Rim+3s attempt rates well this season, taking opponents away from the shots they want to take. Milwaukee, though, rates above the national-average for both field goal attempt rate and efficiency from the mid-range. Seth Hubbard and Danilo Jovanovich are particularly high-usage in that area, so they will need to be hot.
On the other end of the floor, Wichita State ranks 17th in offensive rebounding rate this season as opposed to Milwaukee’s No. 299 rating in defensive rebounding rate. The Shockers should thus secure plenty of second-chance opportunities if they miss initial shots; they rate in the 99th percentile in FGA% coming on putbacks so far this season, and are converting at a 75.0% rate. 7-2 Purdue transfer Will Berg is 9-for-12 on putbacks himself. - Lukas Harkins
Sunday, November 23
C Games
#339 IU Indy at #305 Air Force (-6), 5 PM ET, Mountain West Network.
Only IU Indy can score 80 points, hit 18 threes, and still lose by over 20 points, but that's exactly what happened in Friday's 101-80 loss for the Jaguars. When Ben Howlett's extreme pressing and transition scheme works, it can hang with Ohio State or knock off Eastern Michigan on the road. When it doesn't, back-to-back double digit losses to Charleston Southern and Alabama State occur.
The game with Air Force is particularly fascinating. IU Indy is No. 1 by far in KenPom's adjusted tempo, and all of their games have been at least 79 possessions. Air Force is 340th in tempo, and they've topped 70 possessions once all year. The Falcons are also bottom-20 nationally in offensive turnover rate, a death sentence against IU Indy's constant pressure.
If you were ever curious what would happen if the Tortoise and the Hare raced in real life, it would probably be answered while watching this game. If Air Force has any success at slowing down the historically fast Jaguars, they could pull off their third straight victory after a painful start to the year. And IU Indy needs a fantastic night in the turnover battle to finally get back to its winning ways.
Either way, you very likely will never see a game all season with two teams that have two more opposite philosophies than this one. At its core: this is what makes college basketball beautiful. - Matthew Winick