March Madness 2021: Ranking the 68 NCAA Tournament teams--Heat Check CBB
62. Cleveland State Vikings (19-7, 16-4 HL)
Gold Star Leader: Torrey Patton (14.9 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.7 apg)
Dennis Gates was easily one of the most impressive coaches in college basketball this season while guiding Cleveland State to the NCAA Tournament. The Vikings were one of the best Horizon League teams throughout the year and earned just their third-ever Big Dance appearance. They struggle on the defensive glass and with foul trouble, but defend the 3-point arc better than just about anyone in the nation, limiting both attempts and efficiency. This is a team that only lost to Ohio State by six on the road back in December. They have the potential to be dangerous.
Midwest Region Preview 2021--Three Man Weave
(2) Houston vs. (15) Cleveland St.
Initial Thoughts: Extremely impressive year out of both teams to be where they’re at right now. Just 20 months ago, Cleveland State was dealing with a mass roster exodus amidst a rebellion against Coach Dennis Felton, bringing in Dennis Gates in late July with little chance of assembling a fully functioning roster. With some grit and a little luck (ok, a lot – #1 in the country, per KenPom), the Vikings scaled the Horizon mountain in his second season.
Houston, meanwhile, surprisingly lost Nate Hinton to the NBA last offseason, Fabian White to a torn ACL for most of the year (he’s back, but nowhere near himself quite yet), and AAC preseason Player of the Year Caleb Mills to the transfer portal midseason…and remained a top 10 team. Kelvin Sampson is good at this.
Houston on Offense: Boy, did Quentin Grimes find the right fit after a shaky freshman season at Kansas. He was very good last year, but Grimes has ascended into the stratosphere as a junior, scoring in every way possible en route to AAC Player of the Year honors (who needs Caleb Mills, after all). Along with Marcus Sasser, DeJon Jarreau, and Tramon Mark, the Cougars have a quadrumvirate of lethal perimeter players capable of getting their own shot.
CSU can guard that somewhat, as they themselves play a deep stable of guards and wings around one big man, though the Vikings’ scheme is heavily geared towards forcing jump shots – a dangerous game against Grimes and Sasser in particular. CSU will also mix in some zone, but Houston has obliterated zones this year.
That brings me to one of the biggest mismatches in the entire first round: Houston’s relentless offensive rebounding against CSU’s feeble work on the defensive glass. CSU’s four-guard and zone looks will exacerbate what is already a glaring issue, and this could end up being a “Houston grabs 55% of its misses” type of game.
CSU is also an awful PnR defense (16th percentile against ball-handlers), and Houston can comfortably unleash any of those four at a given time.
Cleveland St. on Offense: As if things weren’t dicey enough in the above section, here’s where I start to get really nervous. How does Cleveland State score, I ask inquisitively?
Houston’s defense is only 16th in AdjDE, but that’s slightly misleading. The Cougars take away everything at the rim and swarm you beyond the arc, and the only true weakness is that their boundless aggression often leads to a free throw parade. CSU does not get to the line frequently, though, and they lay bricks when they do: 66.9% from the stripe, 291st nationally. If you can’t punish Houston for its foul transgressions, you’re in trouble.
Cleveland State’s shot selection amps up my concerns here. The Vikings’ perimeter players are, um, extremely confident, to put it gently. Torrey Patton (28.7% from beyond the arc), D’Moi Hodge (29.2%), and Jayson Woodrich (30.8%) have not earned that confidence, but all three can heat up on the right night. Tre Gomillion is a bulldog of a guard, and Big Al Eichelberger has become a weapon off the bench as he’s gotten healthier, but none really have an edge over their Houston counterparts.
Houston’s tight-knit defense will often give the perception of surrendering an open three, but the gargantuan length of Jarreau, Grimes, and Mark eats up that airspace in a hurry. The offensive glass could help, as Houston is not as sound on that end as one might expect.
Key Factor(s): The rebounding mismatch is obviously huge, but it’s really just an embodiment of what makes me so concerned for Cleveland State here. The Vikings’ best attribute is how frickin’ hard they play every single minute of every single night under Gates…but now they play an opponent who plays just as hard and just as physical, only they’re way more talented? That’s a major alarm for me.
This game could also feature some 3P regression on both sides, as both teams rank inordinately high in defensive 3P% despite giving up high-ish volume. That’s less of a concern for Houston, though, as the Cougars always rank among the country’s elite in that category under Sampson.
Final Prediction: My numbers would greatly prefer I take Cleveland State here, but the matchup – both in terms of Houston potentially lighting it up from deep and the horror show we’re going to see on the offensive glass on that end – just push me too far the other way. CSU is never going to quit, though, meaning the back door could stay open until the final buzzer. This is also one of the rare low totals where I’d lean towards the over, even though I’m not entirely sure how Cleveland State hits 60 points.
NCAA Tournament best bets: Picking Ohio, North Carolina, Villanova and more from Sam Vecenie--The Athletic
No. 15 Cleveland State vs. No. 2 Houston | Houston -20 | Total: 134.5
Cleveland State has a great up-and-coming coach in Dennis Gates. Torrey Patton is the kind of senior that is fun to get around and root fot, and the Vikings have a great group of players that work really hard and complement each other well. But this is just kind of a nightmare spot for the Vikings from a matchup perspective.
The Cougars are about as tough and physical a team as you’re going to find, and they don’t allow teams to score on the interior. That’s the only place the Vikings really find much success, because they only have one starter who makes over 30 percent from 3. Houston is just going to collapse the paint, and force a team that can’t shoot to beat it from the outside. And then if the Vikings get lucky enough to get sent to the line, they only shoot 66 percent there, so they’re not going to be able to take full advantage. Basically, I’m just not sure how Cleveland State is going to score in this game.
And that’s not even the biggest matchup problem. Cleveland State is one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the country, allowing opponents to corral 32 percent of their misses. Houston is the second-best offensive rebounding team in the country, garnering 39 percent of their misses. The Cougars crash the offensive glass hard, and it’s going to create a ton of extra possessions. And then on top of it, I would expect Houston to win the turnover battle, because Cleveland State can get a bit messy with the ball against aggressive on-ball defense. The Vikings finished 10th in the Horizon League in offensive turnover rate. Houston is just going to get so many more bites at the apple to score.
Since Houston lost to Wichita State on February 18, it’s been an absolute buzz saw. Even including the disaster losses to the Shockers and moribund East Carolina, the Cougars have been the third-best team in the country since February 1 according to Bart Torvik’s rankings because they’ve absolutely blitzed everyone since those losses. If you back it up to January 15, they’re second-best. Nobody is talking about Houston, but they absolutely should be. They’re loaded with older guards, they’re tough as all hell, and they’re really good on both ends. And since that East Carolina loss, Quentin Grimes has taken everything onto his shoulders and become maybe the most underrated go-to guy in college basketball. In the nine games since then, Grimes is averaging 21.2 points while hitting an obscene 49 percent of his NINE (!) 3-point attempts per game. He’s on the heater of all heaters right now, and I wouldn’t get against him, even if Cleveland State does have a good player to toss on him in Tre Gomillion, who made the Horizon All-Defense team. Hell, if Grimes keeps up this high-volume pull-up 3-point shooting, he’s an NBA Draft pick and could lead Houston to a Final Four.
Basically, in this game, I’d expect Houston to win the skill battle. I’d expect them to out-shoot Cleveland State. I’d expect them to win the turnover battle. I’d expect them to win the toughness battle (not that Cleveland State is deficient in that area, Houston is just special in it). And I’d expect them to win the rebounding battle. That’s the kind of overall dominance on the page that tends to lead to blowouts. Twenty points is a lot in an NCAA Tournament game. I don’t think it’s enough here, given how Houston has been more than willing to blow-out its opposition. The pick: Houston -20
Why Cleveland State basketball’s Dennis Gates is a rare coach still wearing a suit at games--Cleveland Plain Dealer
Women’s Basketball Set For WBI Appearance--csuvikings.prestosports.com
Davis Selected To NABC Division I All-District Team--detroittitans.com
BURK VOTED TO NABC ALL-DISTRICT 12 SECOND TEAM--iupuijags.com
WOMEN'S BASKETBALL CLOSES BOOK ON 2020-21 SEASON--iupuijags.com
UWM women earn WNIT bid; are only Horizon League team to make the field--Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Panthers Earn WNIT Invitation--mkepanthers.com
MOORE NAMED TO NABC ALL-DISTRICT FIRST TEAM--goldengrizzlies.com
Tim Benz: Andy Toole looks at this year's brackets, reflects on RMU's unfulfilled 2020 NCAA Tournament bid--Trib Live
Raiders grab a pair of NABC All-District honors--wsuraiders.com
2021 NCAA Women’s Tournament Bracket: A guide to all 64 teams, from Stanford to Drexel--The Athletic
Alamo Region
No. 13 Wright State (18-7): Wright State is making its third NCAA Tournament appearance in program history. Junior Angel Baker is a true three-level threat who divides her shot selection into almost perfect thirds between the rim, mid-range and 3-point line. She’s also on a roll, having scored at least 23 points in each of her last five games. Wright State has faced only one Power 6 team this season, losing by 23 points to Michigan in early December.
Raiders to face Arkansas in NCAA First Round--wsuraiders.com
No comments:
Post a Comment