On The Horizon

Jim Squire

IUPUI’s Poor Free Throw Shooting Dooms Them at UIC--Happening Hoops
HappeningHoops.com CBI/CIT Bracketology Number 10 March 1st 2020--Happening Hoops

CBI (16 teams)
Oklahoma State Region (South)

Oklahoma State (15-14 Big 12)

Green Bay (16-15 Horizon)

Saint Francis PA (20-9 NEC)

McNeese State (14-15 Southland)

CIT (32 teams is the CIT’s goal)
Midwest

Youngstown (17-14 Horizon)

Northern Kentucky (21-9 Horizon)

Northern Illinois (17-12 MAC)

Valpo (16-15 MVC)

Ohio (15-14 MAC)

Kansas City (15-14 WAC)

Green Bay meets Oakland in Horizon quarters--Associated Press
Analyzing the All-Horizon League Teams--HoriZone Roundtable
Horizon League Power Rankings – Week 18--HoriZone Roundtable
Horizon Tournament Preview 2020--Three Man Weave
The Morning Dish – Wednesday, March 4, 2020--Hoopville

Side Dishes

The trend of home teams winning continued in the first round of the Horizon League Tournament, where No. 4 UIC blew out No. 9 IUPUI 93-59, No. 5 Youngstown State got past No. 8 Milwaukee 63-57 and No. 6 Oakland got 26 points and 12 rebounds (ed: from Xavier Hill-Mais) to handle No. 7 Cleveland State 80-59.

Bubbles, Sitting on the Fence and Brackets Part 3: 1995-99--Hoopville

1998

Last in: 10 Detroit (24-5), 10 Oklahoma (22-10), 10 Saint Louis (21-10), 10 West Virginia (22-8), 11 Miami (Fla.) (18-9), 11 Nebraska (20-11), 11 Washington (19-9), 11 Western Michigan (20-7), 12 Florida State (17-13)

Multi-bid conferences: 11

After a heavy shift in favor of the top conferences the year before, the 1998 NCAA tourney selections showed something of a movement back towards the middle for the time being.

Eleven different leagues put at least two teams in the field, two more than the year before, and among them were the Mid-American Conference and the Midwestern Collegiate Conference, the group now known as the Horizon League which had a record three teams in the draw. This year’s tourney proved at-large access to teams in such leagues wasn’t impossible, it was just a lot tougher than when the committee was putting more weight on conference championships. And it would only get worse as the top conferences played more and more non-league games at home and against each other and got ever more proficient at avoiding teams from that next tier.

With the committee now heavily focused on non-conference scheduling, plus the RPI and numbers from it having become more prevalent, Detroit Mercy and Illinois-Chicago had similar seasons to earn at-large bids, UIC for the first time ever, Detroit for the first time since 1979. Both were impressive out of conference, took advantage of some golden opportunities in the years before major conference collusion in scheduling, and both were almost flawless in tying for their conference title until they happened to get tripped up in the MCC Tournament. Detroit won at Big Ten co-champ Michigan State and Iowa State, knocked off fellow bubble team Western Michigan, lost by a point at home against NCAA 3 seed Michigan and had a near miss at NCAA 2 seed Cincinnati. UIC (22-5) also defeated Michigan State-at home-lost by a point at Big Ten co-champ (NCAA 5 seed) Illinois and topped eventual MVC champion Illinois State. If some were surprised on Selection Sunday by these two Midwestern Collegiate Conference teams getting bids, they shouldn’t have been: both saw their RPIs hover in the 20s and 30s the second half of the season and were deserving selections. When Butler was a surprise winner of the MCC Tournament, the conference received three bids with UIC nabbing a 9 seed and Detroit a 10.

Conference tournament recap: Higher seeds dominate on opening night--Mid-Major Madness

Horizon League First Round

(4) UIC 93, (9) IUPUI 59
(5) Youngstown State 63, (8) Milwaukee 57
(6) Oakland 80, (7) Cleveland State 59
UIC absolutely killed IUPUI and Oakland did much of the same to Cleveland State. Ho hum.

The Flames shot 60% from the field in the rout as they ended IUPUI’s season at 7-25. It’s likely that the Jaguars will make a coaching change and move on from interim coach Byron Rimm this offseason.

Xavier Hill-Mais put up a 26-point, 12-rebound double-double as Oakland cruised past the Vikings to win their sixth game out of their last seven. A trip to Green Bay awaits as the Phoenix received a bye in the first round.

For a good chunk of the night, Milwaukee looked like the most likely team to pull off an upset of a higher seed. The Panthers led by six at the half, but Youngstown State rallied in the closing five minutes as Milwaukee’s offense stagnated. The Penguins only hit 5-19 3s, but an 18-29 performance inside the arc gave their offense just enough pop to pull it out and set up a matchup with UIC on Thursday.

Horizon League Basketball: 2020 Conference Tournament preview--Busting Brackets
Horizon League Basketball Tournament: Oakland advances past Cleveland State--Busting Brackets
2020 Horizon League Tournament: Schedule, Bracket, Recent History, TV/Streaming Info--Blogging The Bracket
Conference Tourney Previews (Part 1 of 2)--Hoops HD

Horizon tourney predicted champ: Northern Kentucky (#2 seed)
Dates: March 3-10
Location: Indianapolis, IN
2019 tourney champ: Northern Kentucky (#2 seed)
Fun fact: 5 different champs in past 6 years
Seeding: 7 of past 9 champs were not #1 seed
I like to pick a lot of #1 seeds but not in this conference where the only “chalk” you will see are the pieces left in ruins next to the blackboard in the locker room of the regular season champ. Wright State swept Northern Kentucky this year so we shall go with the theory that it is hard to beat a team 3 times in 1 season. Coach Darrin Horn has come in and had an amazing 1st season with 21 regular season wins yet somehow had a pair of conference losses that were each by 30+ PTS. The Norse were 1 of the only teams in the nation who had 2 of its best players (Jalen Tate/Dantez Walton) each miss 10+ games this year but now that both are healthy they should be prepared for the postseason.

Bubbles, Sitting on the Fence and Brackets Part 1: 1985-89--Hoopville

1986

Last in: 11 Iowa (20-11), 11 LSU (22-11), 11 Missouri (21-13), 11 Richmond (23-6), 12 DePaul (16-12), 12 Washington (19-11), 14 Cleveland State (27-3), 14 Utah (20-9)

Multi-bid conferences: 14

The second year of a 64-team NCAA Tournament saw even more diversity in the field, with six different leagues plus the then still-influential independents among at-larges given to seven teams seeded 11 or lower, as well as 14 conferences (including independents) putting two or more representatives in.

Of course, the most well-known of the last at-larges from this tourney was Cleveland State, one of two at-large 14 seeds and a club with a 27-3 record from the Association of Mid-Continent Universities (later the Mid-Continent Conference, now the Summit League). The fledgling AMCU-8 in just its fourth year did not have an automatic bid yet, but the Vikings proved a wise pick as they knocked off vaunted Indiana in the East Regional first round and then took out sixth-seeded Saint Joseph’s in the second round too. The Vikings came ever-so-close to an Elite Eight in their first-ever trip to the Big Dance, falling to No. 7 Navy 71-70 in the regional semifinals, and with their performance essentially made the case then and forever for an inclusive, national 64-team tourney.

1987

Left out: Cleveland State (24-7), Florida State (18-10), Louisville (18-14), New Mexico (25-9), Rhode Island (20-9), Saint Louis (24-9)

Multi-bid conferences: 14

Cleveland State’s missing with a 24-7 mark didn’t get nearly as much attention as Louisville’s snub, but it probably should have-after the Vikings’ run the year before, who wouldn’t have wanted to see if they could do it again? Unlike the year before, CSU didn’t have a marquee win over a team like DePaul to hang its hat on. Saint Louis also was a very near miss, and there was speculation after the pairings were announced that the committee could’ve put together a Missouri/SLU first round matchup. New Mexico also missed with 25 wins, relegated to the NIT for the fourth straight year after another light non-conference schedule. One had to appreciate the candor of committee member and Notre Dame athletic director Gene Corrigan, who specifically mentioned that Saint Louis, Cleveland State, New Mexico and Florida State were very close. Corrigan also elaborated on Saint Louis: “If it was one thing that hurt Saint Louis, it was that they lost six games to teams ranked below 125. Believe me when I tell you that we really looked at Saint Louis U. and Cleveland State.” Also, about Louisville, Corrigan noted: “If you look at Louisville’s schedule, game by game, they really got blown out a lot.” Also when asked if Louisville would’ve made the NCAAs with a closer loss to Memphis State in the Metro final than the 23-point margin it was, Corrigan said “I think they would have.”

1988

Left out: Akron (21-7), Arkansas-Little Rock (24-6), Cleveland State (21-7), Georgia Southern (24-6), Louisiana Tech (21-8), Marshall (24-7), Middle Tennessee State (21-10), New Mexico (20-13), New Orleans (21-10), Ohio State (16-12), Stanford (20-11), Utah (19-10), VCU (21-11)

Multi-bid conferences: 13

Cleveland State women rout Youngstown State in Horizon League Tournament--News-Herald
Women’s Basketball Earns 84-48 Victory Over YSU In #HLWBB First Round--csuvikings.prestosports.com
Women's Basketball travels To Wright State For #HLWBB Quarterfinal--csuvikings.prestosports.com

Titans Fall to Norse in First Round of #HLWBB Championship--detroittitans.com

Surging Oakland opens Horizon tournament ready to make amends for subpar season--Detroit News
Men’s basketball moves onto Horizon League quarterfinals--Oakland Post
Oakland wins in 2OT on Senior Night--Oakland Post
OAKLAND MEN’S BASKETBALL ADVANCES OVER CLEVELAND STATE, 80-59--goldengrizzlies.com
GAME 33: OAKLAND MEN’S BASKETBALL SQUARES OFF WITH GREEN BAY IN QUARTERFINALS--goldengrizzlies.com

Women’s basketball loses season finale in final seconds--Oakland Post
OAKLAND'S SEASON COMES TO AN END AT MILWAUKEE IN OPENING ROUND OF HORIZON LEAGUE TOURNAMENT--goldengrizzlies.com

Flames Advance to #HLMBB Quarterfinals with Rout of Jaguars--uicflames.com
#HLMBB Quarterfinals - UIC vs. Youngstown State--uicflames.com

@UICWBB Season Ends at Wright State--uicflames.com

NO. 9 JAGUARS' SEASON COMES TO A CLOSE AT NO. 4 UIC, 93-59--iupuijags.com

Bubbles, Sitting on the Fence and Brackets Part 2: 1990-94--Hoopville

The second part of our review of bubble teams in and out in the NCAA Tournament over the past 35 years focuses on 1990-94. The span included those spurned during arguably the greatest NCAA Tournament of all, a 25-4 Dick and Tony Bennett led Wisconsin-Green Bay team left out, and a committee point of emphasis develops favoring conference champions.

1992

Left out: UAB (20-8), Ball State (24-8), UC Santa Barbara (20-8), Notre Dame (14-14), Penn State (21-7), Southern Illinois (22-7), Villanova (14-14), Virginia (15-13), Washington State (21-10), Wisconsin-Green Bay (25-4)

Multi-bid conferences: 11

Some may call this opinion, others may cite it as backed up with facts, but we’re going to say it here: NCAA Tournament at-large selections took a turn for the worse in 1992.

The most disappointing snub by a good margin was that of Wisconsin-Green Bay. Full disclosure: this one was a bit personal. Growing up in the middle of Wisconsin, UW-Green Bay was the closest NCAA Division I program to us, and in grade school and high school this writer was a fan of the Phoenix, coach Dick Bennett and his son and star guard (and future national championship winner as a coach) Tony Bennett.

Aside from that, though, UWGB was 25-4 that year, one year after making its first-ever trip to the NCAAs and losing at the buzzer to Steve Smith and Michigan State in the first round. In 1991-92, the Phoenix won at Purdue by 16, defeated Colorado at home and topped 21-win Butler at the buzzer on the road in a memorable game on a Saturday early afternoon in January on ESPN on a three-pointer in the final seconds by Tony Bennett. (Yes, ESPN actually featured teams like them on a Saturday then) UWGB also won the Mid-Continent Conference by four games, and 17 of its 24 D-I wins were by double-digit margins.

UW-Green Bay was 24-3 in the regular season, but had the misfortune of losing starting guard John Martinez to a season-ending knee injury before its conference tournament. Without his 10 points and five assists per game, the Phoenix rolled in their Mid-Continent tourney opener but then were stunned by fourth-place finisher Eastern Illinois in the semifinals. Unquestionably, that left them on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament. Still, one would’ve thought a record with that few blemishes, plus a recent history of being a tough out under Bennett (yes, we know history isn’t an official part of the selection process…) should’ve been enough for the committee to know UWGB was legit. Even the numbers should’ve supported it enough; though the conference schedule was weak, by a review of the RPI from the NCAA’s archives, the Phoenix was 7-2 against the top 150 that year, including a pair of top 50 wins (Butler and Purdue) on the road.

Instead, Green Bay was left out with what was then and would be for four more years the best record and fewest losses of an eligible at-large contender in tourney history. In was Stanford at 18-10, Wake Forest at 17-11 (and all the way up at a 9 seed) and Iowa State with 20 wins but also a 5-9 mark in the Big 8. Yes, the Phoenix being left out was personal. But it also was a clear rebuke of the importance of winning games, and one of the earliest examples of a committee seemingly looking for reasons to keep a team like this out. This wasn’t a MEAC or SWAC team piling up big numbers in a bottom feeder league. The Mid-Continent wasn’t great that year (19th in Jeff Sagarin’s USA Today rankings then), but it wasn’t that weak, either, and had shown quite well in the NCAAs in the past.

CBS’s Greg Gumbel-who was familiar with UWGB after broadcasting its NCAA tourney game the year before-seemed almost flabbergasted after announcing the selections when he mentioned teams left out and noted the Phoenix’s record. In a post-selection interview Gumbel was direct in asking selection committee chair and SEC commissioner Roy Kramer about UW-Green Bay and Ball State, another team left out with 24 wins. In that interview and others that night, Kramer harped on strength of schedule, and also alluded to Martinez’s injury as perhaps affecting the Phoenix’s chances. Two games should not have been enough sample size for the committee to know how much it affected a team, though.