News On The Horizon 6/19/2022

Geraci heads upstate and down south--HoriZone Roundtable

NBA mock draft 2022: Newest projection for each pick’s best and most likely selection--SB Nation

20. San Antonio Spurs

Why Patrick Baldwin Jr. is the best pick on the board: Baldwin was considered a top-five overall recruit entering college because of his size (6’10) and knockdown shooting ability. He chose to play for his father at Milwaukee instead of taking an offer from Duke, and had a disastrous freshman year thanks to a lingering ankle injury and poor team context around him. Baldwin still has the size and shooting projection to be a natural fit in the league if he can stay healthy. He’s certainly a risky pick given his lack of durability and underwhelming production in a mid-major conference, but a team like San Antonio with four top-38 picks is in a perfect spot to roll the dice on him.

22. Memphis Grizzlies

Why Patrick Baldwin Jr. is the most likely pick on the board: The Grizzlies traded up to select a tall wing with outside shooting ability last year with Ziaire Williams. Baldwin is even taller with a better shooting projection. Baldwin’s rough freshman year makes him a better bet for a team with multiple first round picks, which Memphis has. It isn’t often you can get someone who was supposed to be a top-10 pick at the start of the year this late in the draft.

2022 NBA Draft mailbag: Christian Braun, Patrick Baldwin and more--Heat Check CBB

Patrick Baldwin’s draft stock

Is Patrick Baldwin a first round lock?

— Patrick Madden (@TheSportsJD) June 12, 2022

Not by any stretch. I do think there’s a good chance he goes in the first round because someone will gamble on his talent. Remember, he was a top-10 prospect coming into the season and dealt with injury most of the year — but he had a few extremely productive games when healthy, averaging 17.4 points and 8.2 rebounds through Milwaukee’s first five games.

There are three teams with multiple first round picks — the Grizzlies, Spurs and Thunder — that have a history of both drafting players with a high basketball IQ (like Baldwin) and swinging on upside, placing trust in their player development. I would not be surprised if one of those teams selected him in the 20s, but there’s no guarantee.

2022 NBA Draft: Five sleepers who could be this year’s biggest steals--Heat Check CBB

Patrick Baldwin Jr., SF/PF, Milwaukee

6-foot-9, 220 lbs. – 12.1 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 34.4 FG%, 26.6 3P%
Draft Projection: Late 1st Round/Early-Mid 2nd Round

Baldwin’s stock has dropped significantly since the start of the season when he was a projected top-10 pick. Poor play against lesser competition with Milwaukee has played into his slide along with poor athletic testing — his 26.5-inch vertical is one of the worst in combine history.

Those factors, coupled with his injury history, may cause him to fall out of the first round entirely. However, he’s going to become a real value at his current draft position.

Baldwin’s skill set still intrigues many NBA teams. He has a reputation as a knockdown shooter at 6-foot-9, and he regained that reputation during individual workouts after a poor shooting season with the Panthers. He also has a tremendously high basketball IQ with good passing skill and the ability the handle the ball — though no one is going to confuse him for a point guard.

Not much will change about Baldwin’s athletic profile in the NBA and he likely won’t be anything more than an average rebounder. Those are true negatives to his game. But chatter about his lack of production is truly overblown.

In the first three games of the season — when Baldwin was the most healthy — he averaged 17.7 points and 8.3 rebounds a game. He then suffered an ankle injury in Milwaukee’s next outing and missed three more games before turning it around against Robert Morris, posting a career-high 26 points and seven rebounds. Baldwin did struggle shooting in their next matchup against Colorado before being re-injured against Rhode Island. He played in four games and wasn’t the same.

So, in the five games when Baldwin was healthy, he averaged 18.2 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. I think we’re still looking at Baldwin as a lottery pick if those were his numbers for the entire season.

It’s fair to say that the Sussex native won’t be a franchise cornerstone. At the same time, his high level of offensive skill and 3-point shooting ability should allow him to carve out a solid role in the NBA.

Not everyone can be a superstar and it’s clear Baldwin won’t be that. But not everyone can be a reliable secondary scorer, either, and Baldwin still has the tools to develop into that type of player, providing immense value at his projected draft range.

Youngstown State men’s basketball to visit Notre Dame--Mahoning Valley Tribune Chronicle
Sixth-year senior Garrett Covington discusses rehabbing Achilles, decision to return to YSU--Mahoning Valley Tribune Chronicle

‘I can definitely count on him’--Mahoning Valley Tribune Chronicle