(2) Houston vs. (15) Cleveland St.
Initial Thoughts: Extremely impressive year out of both teams to be where they’re at right now. Just 20 months ago, Cleveland State was dealing with a mass roster exodus amidst a rebellion against Coach Dennis Felton, bringing in Dennis Gates in late July with little chance of assembling a fully functioning roster. With some grit and a little luck (ok, a lot – #1 in the country, per KenPom), the Vikings scaled the Horizon mountain in his second season.
Houston, meanwhile, surprisingly lost Nate Hinton to the NBA last offseason, Fabian White to a torn ACL for most of the year (he’s back, but nowhere near himself quite yet), and AAC preseason Player of the Year Caleb Mills to the transfer portal midseason…and remained a top 10 team. Kelvin Sampson is good at this.
Houston on Offense: Boy, did Quentin Grimes find the right fit after a shaky freshman season at Kansas. He was very good last year, but Grimes has ascended into the stratosphere as a junior, scoring in every way possible en route to AAC Player of the Year honors (who needs Caleb Mills, after all). Along with Marcus Sasser, DeJon Jarreau, and Tramon Mark, the Cougars have a quadrumvirate of lethal perimeter players capable of getting their own shot.
CSU can guard that somewhat, as they themselves play a deep stable of guards and wings around one big man, though the Vikings’ scheme is heavily geared towards forcing jump shots – a dangerous game against Grimes and Sasser in particular. CSU will also mix in some zone, but Houston has obliterated zones this year.
That brings me to one of the biggest mismatches in the entire first round: Houston’s relentless offensive rebounding against CSU’s feeble work on the defensive glass. CSU’s four-guard and zone looks will exacerbate what is already a glaring issue, and this could end up being a “Houston grabs 55% of its misses” type of game.
CSU is also an awful PnR defense (16th percentile against ball-handlers), and Houston can comfortably unleash any of those four at a given time.
Cleveland St. on Offense: As if things weren’t dicey enough in the above section, here’s where I start to get really nervous. How does Cleveland State score, I ask inquisitively?
Houston’s defense is only 16th in AdjDE, but that’s slightly misleading. The Cougars take away everything at the rim and swarm you beyond the arc, and the only true weakness is that their boundless aggression often leads to a free throw parade. CSU does not get to the line frequently, though, and they lay bricks when they do: 66.9% from the stripe, 291st nationally. If you can’t punish Houston for its foul transgressions, you’re in trouble.
Cleveland State’s shot selection amps up my concerns here. The Vikings’ perimeter players are, um, extremely confident, to put it gently. Torrey Patton (28.7% from beyond the arc), D’Moi Hodge (29.2%), and Jayson Woodrich (30.8%) have not earned that confidence, but all three can heat up on the right night. Tre Gomillion is a bulldog of a guard, and Big Al Eichelberger has become a weapon off the bench as he’s gotten healthier, but none really have an edge over their Houston counterparts.
Houston’s tight-knit defense will often give the perception of surrendering an open three, but the gargantuan length of Jarreau, Grimes, and Mark eats up that airspace in a hurry. The offensive glass could help, as Houston is not as sound on that end as one might expect.
Key Factor(s): The rebounding mismatch is obviously huge, but it’s really just an embodiment of what makes me so concerned for Cleveland State here. The Vikings’ best attribute is how frickin’ hard they play every single minute of every single night under Gates…but now they play an opponent who plays just as hard and just as physical, only they’re way more talented? That’s a major alarm for me.
This game could also feature some 3P regression on both sides, as both teams rank inordinately high in defensive 3P% despite giving up high-ish volume. That’s less of a concern for Houston, though, as the Cougars always rank among the country’s elite in that category under Sampson.
Final Prediction: My numbers would greatly prefer I take Cleveland State here, but the matchup – both in terms of Houston potentially lighting it up from deep and the horror show we’re going to see on the offensive glass on that end – just push me too far the other way. CSU is never going to quit, though, meaning the back door could stay open until the final buzzer. This is also one of the rare low totals where I’d lean towards the over, even though I’m not entirely sure how Cleveland State hits 60 points.
