Valpo 59 Detroit 56
Milwaukee 68 Loyola 53
Green Bay 76 UIC 73
Butler 66 Wright State 61
Seed Team Conf 1st-round match up
---- ---------- ---- ------------------
#1 Butler 15-2 Double-bye Clinched #1 seed
#2 Wright St. 12-5 Double-bye
Can clinch #2 seed
by beating Valpo
#3 CSU 11-6 Would host Detroit
Needs help to get #2
#4 Milwaukee 9-8 Would host YSU
Can clinch #4 seed with win
on Saturday
#5 Valparaiso 8-9 Would host Loyola
Can get at least #6 by winning out
#6 Green Bay 8-9 Would host UIC
Can get at least #6 by winning out
#7 UIC 8-9 Can get the #4 seed with win
on Saturday
#8 Loyola 6-11 Can secure the #8 seed
by winning on Saturday
#9 YSU 5-12 Needs help to get #8,
can go no higher
#10 Detroit 3-14 Clinched #10
Currently, Valpo holds the tiebreaker with UIC and Green Bay because they are 1-0 against Wright State (though that can change on Saturday when Valpo hosts Wright State). Green Bay split with them and currently holds the 6 seed, while UIC was swept by them and holds the 7 seed.
Looking ahead to this Saturday, the final day of ESPN's Judgment Week:
Detroit has clinched the 10 seed, since they were swept by YSU.
Butler has clinched the #1 seed by beating Wright St.
Wright State can clinch the #2 seed with 1 win or 1 CSU loss. They play Valpo and Butler and CSU plays YSU.
If Wright State and CSU both end up tied at 12-6, here is what can happen:
First of all, this implies that YSU is 5-13 (clinching the 9 seed) and Valpo is 9-9.
They have split with each other and will have both split against Butler, so...
1. 4th place is 10-8
Only Milwaukee can attain a 10-8 record (by beating UIC
on Saturday). This would guarantee the 4 seed for
Milwaukee.
This implies that UIC is 8-10.
Both Wright State and CSU split with Milwaukee, so we
have to move on to 5th place.
5th place has to be 9-9, because Valpo in this scenario
has to be 9-9.
a. Valpo is the only 9-9 team
CSU is 2-0 while Wright State would be 0-2, so CSU
gets the 2 seed, Wright State the 3 seed, and Valpo
the 5 seed.
This puts both UIC and Green Bay at 8-10, with
Loyola at 7-11 (Loyola beats Green Bay). The two
teams have now split. They both were swept by #1
Butler. They both split with #2 CSU, but UIC was
swept by #3 Wright State while Green Bay split with
them, so Green Bay gets the 6 seed, UIC the 7 seed,
and Loyola the 8 seed.
b. Valpo and Green Bay are 9-9
CSU is 3-1 (2-0 against Valpo, 1-1 against Green
Bay), while Wright State would 1-3 (1-1 against
Green Bay, 0-2 against Valpo), so CSU gets the 2
seed, and Wright State the 3 seed.
In this case, CSU is the tiebreaker and it favors
Green Bay (1-1) over Valpo (0-2), so Green Bay gets
the 5 seed, Valpo the 6 seed.
UIC would be 8-10, and Green Bay would have beaten
Loyola. Hence, UIC gets the 7 seed, and Loyola the
8 seed.
2. 4th place is 9-9
This means that Milwaukee loses to UIC on Saturday. At
least these two teams and Valpo would be tied at 9-9,
and possibly Green Bay as well.
a. Milwaukee, UIC, and Valpo are the only 9-9 teams
Wright State is 3-3 (2-0 against UIC, 1-1 against
Milwaukee, 0-2 against Valpo), while CSU is 4-2 (1-1
against Milwaukee, 1-1 against UIC, 2-0 against
Valpo), so CSU gets the 2 seed and Wright State gets
the 3 seed.
UIC would be 3-1 (2-0 against Milwaukee, 1-1 against
Valpo), Valpo is 2-2 (1-1 against each), and
Milwaukee would be 1-3 (0-2 against UIC, 1-1 against
Valpo), so UIC would get the 4 seed, Valpo the 5
seed, and Milwaukee the 6 seed.
Green Bay loses to Loyola to finish 8-10 and get the
7 seed, while Loyola has the 8 seed at 7-11.
b. Milwaukee, UIC, Valpo, and Green Bay all finish 9-9
(Green Bay beats Loyola)
Wright State is 4-4 (2-0 against UIC, 1-1 against
Green Bay, 1-1 against Milwaukee, 0-2 against Valpo),
while CSU is 5-3 (1-1 against UIC, 1-1 against Green
Bay, and 2-0 against Valpo). CSU gets the 2 seed and
Wright State the 3 seed.
Milwaukee will be 3-3, UIC 4-2, Valpo 3-3, and Green
Bay 2-4 in the round-robin head-to-head. Thus, UIC
gets the 4 seed and Green Bay gets the 7 seed.
Milwaukee split with Valpo, they both were swept by
#1 Butler, but Milwaukee split with #2 CSU while
Valpo was swept by them, so Milwaukee gets the 5 seed
and Valpo gets the 6 seed.
Loyola gets the 8 seed.
If instead, Wright State beats Valpo to finish 13-5, they secure the 2 seed, and CSU ends up with the 3 seed.
Valpo finishes 8-10.
1. Milwaukee beats UIC to finish 10-8 and get the 4 seed
UIC finishes 8-10
a. 5th place is 9-9
Green Bay is the only team left that can finish 9-9
by beating Loyola on Saturday. This gives them the
5 seed.
UIC and Valpo would tie at 8-10. In this case the
tie is still broken by Wright State in Valpo's
favor because UIC was swept by Wright State while
Valpo will have split with them. Valpo gets the 6
seed and UIC the 7 seed.
Loyola finishes 6-12. If YSU beats CSU, they tie
with Loyola. The two teams split, they were both
swept by #1 Butler and #2 Wright State, they both
split with #3 CSU, but Loyola split with #4
Milwaukee while YSU was swept by them, so Loyola
wins the tiebreaker and gets the 8 seed, and YSU
gets the 9 seed.
b. 5th place is 8-10
This means that Green Bay loses to Loyola, who
finishes 7-11 and gets the 8 seed. YSU gets the
9 seed.
UIC, Valpo, and Green Bay are in a 3-way tie for
5th. They each split with the other 2, they all
were swept by #1 Butler, but while Valpo and
Green Bay will have split with #2 Wright State,
UIC was swept by them and drops out to get the
7 seed.
The remaining tie falls to #3 CSU who favors
Green Bay (1-1) over Valpo (0-2), so Green Bay
gets the 5 seed, and Valpo gets the 6 seed.
2. Milwaukee loses to UIC so that both finish 9-9
Green Bay can also finish 9-9 by beating Loyola.
a. Milwaukee, UIC, and Green Bay finish 9-9
Valpo finishes 8-10 and gets the 7 seed.
Loyola finishes 6-12.
Milwaukee is 2-2, UIC 3-1, and Green Bay 1-3
in the round-robin head-to-head, so UIC gets
the 4 seed, Milwaukee the 5 seed, and Green
Bay the 6 seed.
If YSU beats CSU, the tiebreaker falls to #4
UIC, who swept Loyola while splitting with YSU
so YSU gets the 8 seed and Loyola gets the 9
seed.
If YSU loses to CSU, Loyola gets the 8 seed
and YSU gets the 9 seed.
b. Milwaukee and UIC alone are tied at 9-9
(Green Bay loses to Loyola)
UIC swept Milwaukee, so once again, UIC gets
the 4 seed and Milwaukee gets the 5 seed.
Valpo and Green Bay tie at 8-10. The tiebreaker
falls to #3 CSU, who favors Green Bay, as has
been shown above, so Green Bay gets the 6 seed
and Valpo the 7 seed.
Loyola finishes 7-11 and gets the 8 seed, and
YSU gets the 9 seed.
Finally, if Wright State goes 12-6 and YSU beats CSU, Wright State still secures the 2 seed, and CSU ends up with the 3 seed.
In this case, Valpo finishes 9-9 and YSU finishes 6-12.
1. Milwaukee beats UIC to finish 10-8 and get the 4 seed
UIC finishes 8-10
5th place has to be 9-9 because Valpo is 9-9 in this
scenario. Green Bay can also finish 9-9 by beating
Loyola on Saturday.
a. Valpo alone is 9-9 and gets the 5 seed
UIC and Green Bay would tie at 8-10. As shown
above, Green Bay wins this tiebreaker because
they split with #2 Wright State, while UIC was
swept by them, so Green Bay gets the 6 seed, and
UIC the 7 seed.
Loyola finishes 7-11 and gets the 8 seed, while
YSU gets the 9 seed.
b. Valpo and Green Bay tie at 9-9
In this case, Valpo wins the tiebreaker because
they will have swept Wright State while Green
Bay split with them. Valpo gets the 5 seed,
Green Bay the 6 seed.
UIC finishes 8-10 and gets the 7 seed.
Loyola finishes tied with YSU at 6-12, but as
shown above, they win the tiebreaker and get the
8 seed, while YSU gets the 9 seed.
2. Milwaukee loses to UIC so that both finish 9-9
Green Bay can also finish 9-9 by beating Loyola.
a. Milwaukee, UIC, Valpo, and Green Bay finish
9-9
Milwaukee is 3-3, UIC 4-2, Valpo 3-3, and
Green Bay 2-4 in the round-robin head-to-
head, so UIC gets the 4 seed, and Green
Bay the 7 seed.
Again, Valpo wins the tiebreaker with
Milwaukee via Wright State and gets the 5
seed, and Milwaukee gets the 6 seed.
Loyola ties with YSU at 6-12. As seen
above, UIC breaks this tie in favor of YSU,
who gets the 8 seed while Loyola gets the 9
seed.
b. Milwaukee, UIC, and Valpo alone are tied at 9-9
(Green Bay loses to Loyola)
UIC is 3-1, Valpo 2-2, and Milwaukee 1-3 in the
round-robin head-to-head, so once again, UIC gets
the 4 seed, Valpo the 5 seed, and Milwaukee the
6 seed.
Green Bay finishes 8-10 and gets the 7 seed.
Loyola finishes 7-11 and gets the 8 seed. YSU
gets the 9 seed.
OK! That was a bit easier. A few complications were eliminated tonight.
Thanks to WAJC69 from the Butler board for providing the Official Tie Breaker Rules
Thanks to uwmfansince1997 from the Milwaukee board for providing a link to the Horizon League's official "Track the Bracket" page.
Speaking of Mark Lazerus, over at "Off the Mark", well, OK... Don't shoot the messenger.
ReplyDeleteAnyhow, he says that the Horizon league has sent out bracket scenarios - but, at least one of them seems wrong!
"If VU, YSU, UIC, UWGB all win Saturday, VU is the No. 4 seed and will host YSU."
I'm with you, Jim. UIC takes 4th in that scenario.
Valpo themselves claims that 4th is still a possibility, in their game notes for tomorrow's game. Perhaps relying on the same League figures.
Seems like the (slim) Valpo 4th seed scenarios sailed with Milwaukee's win.
Anyhow, never a dull moment in this league!
Haha, and I thought the league would surely be more reliable than I am;-)
ReplyDeleteYeah, I looked again and Milwaukee's win last night sunk any chance of a 4 seeed for Valpo.
Thanks for the heads up!